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"There is widespread agreement- close
to 100%-that the kind of growth rate
we saw in the past 25 years [roughly 5%
per year] will not continue."
- Herman Kahn, Hudson Jnstitute
more than 30 countries. The Club of Rome is best
known for
The Limits of Growth,
a controversia! report
published in 1972. Using a computer to project present
growth trends, a team of scientists at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology concluded in the report th.at " if
present growth trends in world population. indus–
trialization, pollution, food production and resource de–
pletion continue unchanged, the limits of growth on this
planet will be reached sometime within the next one
hundred years. The most probable result wi ll be a rather
sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population
and industrial capacity.' '
Man Versus Machine
pessimistic projection made beadlines
round the world and touched
off
a great
te over mankind's future and the value
computer-based forecasting. That debate
contm
at the conference when Herman J(ahn, much
pubHcized head of the Hudson Institute and proponent
of growth-as-usual. matched wits and statistics with a
computer and its oracle. Dr. Barry Hughes of Case
.:
Western Reserve University (Cieveland, Ohio). The
§
~
computer was programmed with a new analysis system
~
known as the Assessment of Policies Too! (APT). This
1:.
system was developed by Dr. Hughes in association with
o Dr. Mihajlo Mesarovic and Dr. Edward Peste! (who
l>
coauthored the second report of the Club of Rome.
~
entitJed
Mankind atthe Turning Point).
--------------------------'
~
Kahn defended the generally optimistic predictions of
U.S. Energy Secretary James R. Schlesinger said that
the 26-million-barrel-per-day goal depended on the
United States reducing its oil imports to
6
million barreis
a day.
IEA members were critica! of tbe United Sta tes for its
failure to curb oil imports. While most member nations
had increased their oil iroports only a small amount
between
1972
and
1976
(sorne had decreased their im–
ports), U.S. imports of oil increased by
51
percent. Cana–
dian Energy Minister Alastair Gillespie, chairman of the
fEA, observed that if the U.S. doesn't set an example by
adopting an energy program. other importing nations
will abandon efforts to cut their oil imports. Mr. Schles–
inger pledged that the U.S. could meet its goals to cut
imports if President Carter's energy program is adopted.
But ...
October
JO:
The U.S. Senate ends a two-week filibus–
ter against a bill to deregulate the price of newly discov–
ered natural gas sold across state lines. The gas–
de regulation bill passes as the Senate continues its piece–
by-piece dismantlíng of the key elements of Presiden!
Carter's energy prog,ram.
Club of Rome Report
hile politicians and diplomats wrangled
over
curren/
energy problems. the 400
delegates to the Alternatives to GrowtiJ
Conference pondered future energy. pop–
ulation, food, and economic problems. One of the spon–
soring organizations for the conference was the Club of
Rome, an informal association of
100
individuals in
20
his 1976 book,
The Next 200 Years.
These included
higher estimates of reserves of essential resources such as
oil and projections of far greater food production than
those made in the Club of Rome reports. Kahn main–
tained that world population and economic growth will
eventually slow down naturally, resulting in
a
world of
plenty for most socíeties.
Hughes agreed with Kahn that a "doomsday" crash of
civilization need not be inevitable. But he contended
that the transition period in the next
50
years would be
far more traumatic than Kahn predicts.
As the computer flashed rapid-tire readouts on a
movie screen. Dr. H ughes rebutted severa! of Kahn's
Barry Hughes (lett) and Herman Kahn (right) debate the fu–
ture at the Alternatives to Growth Conference.
The
PLAIN TRUTH
January
f 978