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specific conclusions. Kahn had stated in his book that "it
doesn't seem likely that oil prices wi ll stay very high for
more than five or ten years, and possibly much less; they
might easiJy retum to something like three to seven
dollars [per barreJ] in the Persian Gulf long before the
new coa! infrastructure has been amortized."
But the computer's evaluation of the fulure yielded
jusl lhe opposite prediction. Assuming that prices are
dictated by a free market, the computer concluded tha t
oil prices will climb steadily throughoul the end of the
century to a leve! about 50 percent higher than current
prices (in tcrms of 1975 dollars). After the tum of the
century, prices will climb even faster as supplies are
exhausted. By 2025, the projected price would be nearly
$60 a barre! in terms of 1975 dollars.
The computer also calculated that Kahn's projec–
tions for food production and per-capita income
would require such vast sums of capital investment
and transfer of wealth from developed to presently
undeveloped nations as to be, in Hughes' judgment,
unrealistic.
Kahn would not recant: "According to my model,
when Cortez stepped ashore with 500 men to face two
million Aztecs, the Aztecs won.... There's only one
modellhat will answer all questions equally weU, and it's
called God." Kahn argued that no one knows what the
actual reserves of oil and other resources are, or what
technolbgies might be devised in the future to solve what
may now scem to be insurmountable problems. H is faith
remained unshaken in the unknown and man's inge–
nuity and resourcefulness- factors no computer can take
into account.
And there the debate remained deadlocked: faith
against the known facts.
After the conference had ended, President Carter re–
newed his call for Americans to consider the energy
crisis lhe "moral equivalent of war." But most Ameri–
cans have treated lhe situation as if it were the moral
equivalent of peace. They are guzzling oil at a record
rate. This year the United States is on its way toa record
$30 billion deficit
in
its balance of payments, largely
because
of
its unrestrained appelite for oil.
Many European nations and Japan have had notable
success in conserving energy and reducing the growth
rate of oil consumption. But even these natioos are stiiJ
heavily dependent on oil.
No Consensus
D
f conferences (such as the one near Houston) and
groups (such as the Club of Rome) have accom–
plished anything, it has been to make govern–
ment leaders and the general public more aware
of the space and resource limits of the earth. But it was abun–
danlly clear from the conference and the headlines in
thc papers thal little has been done to prepare any one
nation, Jet alone the world, to sustain itself within those
limits. As Aurelio Peccei, founder of the Club of Rome,
confessed: "We don't know how to translate our new
awareness into action."
Developed nations are still committed to high-growth
policies. Undeveloped and developing nations want to
go the route of the Western developed nations. They
The
PLAIN TRUTH
January
1978
' 'We don't know how to translate our
new awareness into action....
It
is much
later than we think. But we can do more
than we are doing.... We don't see the
Iight at the end of the tunnel. We
have a few tools, but the wisdom hasn't
yet emerged."
-Aurelio Pecci, founder Club of Rome
want a bigger piece of the pie. Westem style, even
though that style is fast becomíng unsustajnable and
obsolete. Severa! Third World representatives at the
conference
demanded
lhal developed nations help lhem
with massive amounts of aid and capital investment.
They
insisted
that
it
was their righl to achieve economic
parily with developed nalions and that it was the duly of
developed nations to help. even sacrifice, to make it
possible.
The world is running out of time, oil. food, and- one
sensed from the conference- patience to deal with the
problem of a world that is pressing on the natural limits
of growth. Jf lhe conference was in any way a microcosm
of lhe world, mankind has a long way lo go in finding
lhe wisdom and tbe consensus needed to meel the future
with success.
Dr. Peccei was asked what progress had been made
toward an economy that could be sustained within lhe
limits of the earlh's resources since the publication of the
Club of Rome's firsl report five years ago. He could
poinllo no substantive progress. And now. in 1977.
"It
is
much later than we think." he said. "But we can do
much more lhan we are doing.... We don't see lhe light
al lhe end of the tunnel. We have a few tools . bul the
wisdom hasn't emerged." O
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