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LIVINGWITHIN OUR
LIMITS
by
D. Pauf Graunke
he lifeblood of the modero economy is fossil
fue!, particularly oil. Prosperity depends on
plenty of it, and the cheaper the better. There
is plenty of oil right now, a glut on the world
, m fact. But it is no longer cheap. thanks to the
Organization of Petro leum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
oil cartel.
And, if the experts a re right, oil one day will become
scarce and even mo re expensive because we live on a
finite ea rth with finite resources, which we a re exhaust–
ing at an ever increasing rate.
Current estimates place the ultimately recoverable re–
serves of oil at about two trillion barreis. They may be
less than that, maybe only 1.6 trillion barreis. Or they
may be more than that, maybe as high as 3.7 trillion
barreis by sorne estimates. But even if the latter figure
tums out to be correct, the world economies have such a
voracious and growing appetite for oi l that demand will
outstrip supply early in the next century. If reserves are
lower, the day of reckoning will come even sooner, per–
haps as early as 1985 if the growth in demand for oi l
doesn't slacken.
So. the question is not ifwe run out of oil, but
when
we
run out of oi l, what will we do? How can •ve make the
transi tion toan economic system that can thrive without
The
PLAIN TRUTH January 1978
oil and within the limits of all the resources available on
this finite spaceship called earth?
Four hundred business, academic. and government
leaders from throughout the United States and overseas
gathered 35 miles north of Houston during the first week
in October to ponder these questions. The occasion was
the Alterna tives to Growth Conference.
The conference took place against the background of
severa! critica! developments in the a rea of energy:
September 23:
A report reveals that U.S. demand for
petroleum products in the previous four-week period
rose at a record ra te. with o il imports providing more
than 48 percent of the total. lmports of crude oil aver–
aged nearly 6.5 million barreis a day. 36.2 percent of the
nation's total petroleum demand of 17.86 million barreis
daily. lmports of refined petroleum products accounted
for another 2. 12 mili ion barreis a da
y.
Ocrober 6:
Members of the International Energy
Agency. formed after the Arab oil emba rgo in 1974 by
19 major oil-importing nations, agree to lirnit oi l imports
to 26 million barreis a day by 1985. about 8 million
barreis a day less tha n th e imports anticipated if energy
conservation plans were no t implemented. lEA na tions
currently import 22 million barreis of oi l per day. with
the U.S. accounting for one-third of that figure.
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