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century."
He estimates drought-re–
lated agriculturallosses for the state
for 1976 to be "around a bilJion dol–
lars."
A report prepared by the drought
task force in South Dakota says that
"statewide. it can be seen that esti–
mated crop production in 1976 is
55.5% below the average 1967-74
leve!." In sorne counties. crop
de–
creases a re estimated at 90% or
more. As for cattle. according to the
task force report. farmers a nd
ranchers in 17 counties "are ex–
pected to experience a reduction in
cattle numbers ofmore than 50%."
The Minnesota Farmers Union
estimates drought Iosses in tha t state
at $ 1. 15 billion for 53 of 87 counties.
According to
one
U.S. agriculture
official: "The drought has been
more intensely localized in South
Dakota. parts of Minnesota and
Iowa. But there has been a lack of
rainfall in much of the region
stretching from southern Wisconsin
and western Ohio all the way to
northern Missouri, eastern Kansas,
Nebraska, Iowa and southern Min–
nesota."
The ten-state region he outlined is
often called the Corn Belt, but it
accounts also for much of the coun–
try's production of soybeans. oats.
hay. alfalfa and wbeat. as well as
beef and dairy cattle.
On America's west coast. Califor–
nia farmers, who provide much of
the nation's food. los t more than $1
billion worth of crops during 1976
because of the winter drought. two
harvest-time strikes, a damaging
freeze and unseasonable rains. The
California Farm Bureau warned on
November 28 that another dry win–
ter would produce a new round of
severe agricultura) losses.
It
called
1976 "one of the most damaging
and frustrating production years in
history."
"Nearly every farmer suffered to
sorne extent, but for sorne time the
losses were catastrophic," said Fred
Heringer, bureau presiden!. "Pro–
duction from enti re orchards was
lost; cattlemen without feed or pas–
ture were forced to liquidate."
Far from the United States. in
Australia. one of the world 's key
food-exporting nations, drought
conditions reduced a previously
forecast 1976 wheat crop of 12 mii-
The
PLAIN TRUTH February 1977
lion tons to only around 8 million.
In southern Australia many key
cropland and grazing a rcas had no
more than 10% of their normal rain–
fa)) during their 1976 growing sea–
so n. Million s of sheep and
thousands of head of cattle had to
be killed.
Ominous Weather Trends
The paradox of overall near-record
food crops in the U.S. at the same
time of spotty but severe drought is
no source of peace of mind to agri–
cultura) experts, who realize that the
bountiful yields of recent years have
largely been achieved through the
release into production of lands
once
held in reserve. They also
know that much of the credit for
tremendous yield increases over the
last 15 years should be attributed to
optimum weather conditions
which
prevailed until 1974. According to
John McQuigg, a leading govern–
ment climatologist at the University
of Missouri: "The probability of
getting another fifteen consecutive
years that good is about one in
10,000."
For the past severa) years. leading
climatologists have been warning
that the United States may be
headed for sorne tough wea ther
years if certain adverse wea ther cy–
cles of the past are repeated. There
is sorne pretty hard evidence that
there have been at leas! eight suc–
cessive dry periods east of the Rock–
ies spaced 20 to 22 years apart. No
one knows for sure why they occur,
but there are plenty of theories
(many focus on sunspot activity).
At the same time there appears to
be a major global change in weather
patterns. Many meteorologists feel a
gradual cooling trend is going on, at
least in the Northern Hemisphere.
Other scientists are not su re.
Scientists generally do agree,
however, with the observation of J .
Murray Mitchell Jr. of the U.S. Na–
tional Atmospheric and Oceanic
Administration: "From the agricul–
tura! productivity point of view the
climate's not going to get better. It
can only get worse . . . . lf there's
anything we can be reasonably con–
fident about in terms of projections
of future climate, it is that
the di–
mate of our crop-growing oreas wi/1
become more variable rhan it has
been in the recen/ post"
(emphasis
ours throughout article).
Orought Already Overdue
According to leading weather offi–
cials, a major drought is already
overdue in the American Great
Plains - now the world's most im–
portan! breadbasket. A few years
ago, Dr. Walter Orr Roberts, direc–
tor of the National Center for At–
mospheric Research, said: " 1
personally am watching very in–
tently for a drought in the mid-
1970's in the high plains."
Dr. lrving Krick, noted Iong-range
weather forecaster, told
Plain Truth
researchers: "Now we think that the
latter half of the seventies will bring
more general drought extending
from the Southwest up. encroaching
farther north and east into the grain
belts of Kansas. the corn areas of
lowa, Illinois. and so forth."
Dr. Stephen H. Schneider, re–
search scientist at the Boulder, Col–
orado, weather research center, a lso
told our interviewers in 1974: " 1
would say that the odds of having
drought conditions in the seventies
are probably higher than they were
in the sixties without any theory at
all - just because we've had a very
good st retch in the Iast fifteen years
in the United States."
Henry Lansford of the National
Center for Atmospheric Research
near Boulder. Colorado, adds that
"it will not take an apocalyptic
event such as the onset of a new ice
age to bring human suffering from
fa m in e. Even if no long-term
changes in climate a re forthcoming.
the immediate potential appears to
be deadly serious. The climate,
trends that sorne scientists are pre–
dicting could bring us to a point of
catastrophic consequences between
the increasing population and in–
adequate food supplies much sooner
than many people expect."
Finally, Reíd Bryson, noted Uni–
versity of Wisconsin climatologist,
says: "The evidence is now abun–
dantly clear that the climate of the
earth is changing in a direction that
is not promising in terms of our
ability to feed the world."
World's Gravest Problem
Weather uncertaint ies in the food–
exporting nations could not come at
41