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a more serious juncture in human
history. Al a recent world food con–
ference it was pointed out that in 25
years - or about one generation -
world food production must more
than double to give the rapidly in–
creasing world population just a
little improvement in food quantity,
and hopefully, quality.
The same conference projected
that food
deficits
of the developing
countries by
1985
will amount to a
staggering 80 to over
~00
million
tons annually. Such deficits. in the
words of Dr. John A. Hannah. exec–
utive director of the U.N. World
Food Council , are "too high to be
considered manageable, physically
or financially. And these shocking
shortfalls will greatly increase with
each weather disaster." Thus, adds
Dr. Hannah: "The challenge of pro–
viding food for hungry people . . . is
the greatest challenge of the last
quarter ofthe twentieth century."
Dr. Raymond Ewell, a leading
fertilizer expert from the State Uni–
versity of New York, goes one step
further, labeling the world food
crisis "the biggest , most fundamen–
tal, and most nearly insoluble prob–
lem that has ever faced the human
race."
Why is this so?
Simply because the
world today consists almost entirely
of food-deficit countries.
"Importan!
exporters at the global leve!," writes
food expert Lester R. Brown, "can
be numbered on the fingers of one
hand. While scores of new food im–
porters have emerged over the past
two decades, not a single new ex–
porter has emerged!"
If the trends of the past severa!
years continue, writes Brown in the
December 1976 issue of
The Futurist,
"the collective import needs of the
lOO-plus importing countries even–
tually will greatly exceed the export–
able supplies from North America,
particularly when the harvest is poor.
Inevitably, harsh decisions will have
to be made by the U.S. and Canadian
governments on who gets food and
who does not. ..."
Brown's prognosis sounds very
similar to the conclusions reached
by William and .Paul Paddock in
their book
Famine 1975, Who Wi/1
Survive?
(published in 1967 by
Little. Brown and Company. Boston
and Toronto). The Paddock broth-
42
ers concluded that not all countries
could possibly be helped in a future
world food crisis; that those who
stood a chance to survive should be
helped ("the walking wounded")
but that other poor, overpopulated,
chronically food-short lands would
simply have to be left to fend for
themselves.
The world food-trade pattern has
been "altered profoundly in recent
decades" adds Brown. Within only
one generation, virtually the entire
world has come to depend on North
American food exports. Asia, Af–
rica, Laiin America, Western Eu–
rope, and.Eastern Europe, including
the Soviet Union, are now al!
net
grain importers.
Much of the food
imported into these regions is used
to feed burgeoning urban popu–
lations. And by the year 2000 the
world will be half urban - up from
29%
in
1950.
"Not only are nearly all countries
today food importers." explains
Brown,
'~but
a growing number now
import over half of their grain sup–
plies. Among these are Japan. Bel–
gium, Senegal, Libya, Saudi Arabia,
Venezuela, Lebanon, Switzerland
and Algeria. Others rapidly ap–
proaching a similar degree of depen–
dence on imported foodstuffs include
Portugal, Costa Rica, Sri Lanka (Cey–
lon). South Korea and Egypt. ..."
Brown ' s conclusion: "Over–
whelming dependence by the
world's cities [and nations] on im–
ported food supplies from a single
geographic region in a world of food
scarcity brings with it a vulnerabil–
ity to externa! política! forces and
climatic trends that is risky indeed."
Production Limlts Reached in U.S.
The dependency factor is deeply
disturbing in light of agricultura!
conditions under way in North
America. Even aside from bad
weather, other factors are not prom–
ising. For one, yields of every major
crop, whether it be wheat, corn or
rice, have leveled off after years of
unprecedented increases. Cost-ef–
fective fertilizer usage also seems to
have reached a limit. In addition. as
previously noted, "soil-bank" crop–
lands have already been put back
into use, leaving little expandable
land in reserve.
Then. too. environmental con-
cerns over older broad-spectrum in–
secticides and pesticides ha ve
disrupted the war against insects
and other pests.
Plant geneticists, furthermore. see
no breakthroughs on the horizon in
the forro of new super-yield crop
varieties. They are instead workingas
fast as they can - on
a
treadmill, as it
were - just lo maintain the constan!
flow of new-enough varieties in–
tended only to keep ahead of all the
rats, molds. mildews and insects
which in themselves constantly mu–
tate in reaction to the inan-made
poisons.
Most Critica! Factor
Weather remains the single most
critica! factor, however, in the world
food picture. Yet weather seems to
have become a highly unpredict–
able, variable element.
According to
H.
James Tippett.
chief of the grain section of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture's Statis–
tical Reporting Service, the most
confounding feature of the South
Dakota drought , for example, has
been the irregular pattern of rain–
fall. Sorne areas have remained
bone-dry all year long but nearby
areas have received adequate rain–
fall and are either normal or above
average in production.
Although 53 of South Dakota's 67
count ies have sutfered major crop
losses, at least 12 other counties in
the western half of the state
have remained untouched by the
drought. In nine of those counties,
production is actually up.
How similar to a rather obscure
passage in one of the minor proph–
ets of the Old Testament: "And also
J
have withholden the rain from
you, when there were yet three
months to the harvest: and 1 caused
it to rain upon one city, and caused
it not to rain upon another city: one
piece was rained upon, and the
piece whereupon it rained not with–
ered. So two or three cities wan–
dered unto one city. to drink
wa tér ... yet HAVE YE NOT RE·
TURNED UNTO ME. SAITH THE LORD"
(Amos 4:7-8).
Worst Thing That Can Happen
toa Natlon
Believe it or not. the moral condi–
tion of a country is directly linked to
The
PLAIN TRUTH February 1977