Basic HTML Version
..
:,.
yearly increases of around
0.1%
per
year, it took thousands of years for
world population to reach an estimated
250
to
300
million at lhe time ofChrisr.
At a slightly higber rale, il took
/6
more centur/es,
10
around lhe year
1650,
for world population lo increa.se lo
500
million (give or take
100
million
10
allow
for the Crusades, bubonic plague, and
other bigh death factors). TWC! bundred
years
ago al lhe birth of the Uoited
States in
1776,
world population was,
aooording to rougb eslimates, around
700 million.
Not until/830 did the -rld
jinally
reach its
jim blllion.
Bol look at the incredibly
~bort
time
periods required to add additional bil–
lions in lhe rears alter
1830,
particularly
in lhe lwenueth eenlury!
First Bl111on
Yeara "-!ulred
lo
YNI
Adcl One Bllllon Reachecl
S.V.al
thousand
1830
Second Bllllon
100
1930
Third Bllllon
30
1960
Foutth Bllllon
15
1975
Flflh Billion
11
1986
Sixth Billlon
9
1995
By lhe end of lhis century, U.N. statis–
lics indicate tbat world population will
be increasing by a billion persons every
¡Myears.
World population has doubled from 2
billion to 4 billion since just before
World War 11
- in
lht liftlimt
of many
reading
Plaln Truth.
Building upon
today's population, a
2%
annual world
population increase means world popu–
Jation doubles every
3S
years. Barring
sorne c:alastropbe, sorne officials esti–
rnate that world population wiU reach
6.S
to 7 billion around the year 2000.
But worse yet, the annual population
increase in many developing nations in
LatiD Arnerica, Africa, and Asia is nol
2%
annually but as much as 3
V.%
-
a
rate thal doubles population every
20
years.
Oealll
Rates
c.t
la
Half
The major reason for lhe suddcn
pop–
ulation growlh
in
this eentury has not
been higher birth rates, but towered
deatb rates. Medica!, chemical, and san–
itary breaktbrougbs bave cut death rates
in balf in Ibis century. Millions now sur–
vive diseases lhat were once commonly
fatal.
Tbe post-World War 11 use of DDT,
for cumple, employed to
kili
malaria-
- carrymg mosquitoes.has drastically low–
ered lhe deatb rate in most under–
developed arcas. Lüe expectancy in
arcas such as India has jumped from 29
years in
194010
SS
years today.
LatiD America, the former "sleeping
giant," passed lhe
200
miltion popu–
lation mark in
1960
and explodcd to
300
million only 12 years later i.n
1972.
At a
25-year doubling rate, Lalin America
must prepare to feed. bouse, and employ
64S million
Latins
by lhe year 2000 - a
tnplmg of populatíon in tbis century -
unless the culturally and religiou1ly
alí~n pra~
of
birth wntrol
take~
bold
imrnediately. Mcxico alone will Jump
from
60
million to
13S
rnillion by lhe
ycar 2000, attbe present growtb rate.
Nearly
60%
of bumanity lives i.n Asia.
Two countries alone, India and China,
account for over a third ·of
all
human–
kind. Any temporary agricultura! gains
in lhese two nations are otrset almost
immediately by an exploding popu–
lation. Each country adds lhe popu–
lation of an Australia
(14
million) every
year, a United States
(21
S
million) in a
decadc.
Unless dramatic sleps are talren now,
by the tum of the century lndia's popu–
lation will bit one billion, the Phili¡r
pines wiU mushroom frorn
42
rnillion to
100
million, and lndonesia's already
teeming
130
miUion population wiU at–
most double.
Thc chanoes ofstemming tbis growing
tide of humanity registers somewbere
between slim and none.
Six
BUJioa No Matta' Wbat?
Anclher aspect of tbe population
crisis is not u fuUy appreciated as it
should be. A major global food crisis is
assured unless vcry drarnatic reductioru
in birtb ratos are forthcoming.
"We sbould understaod lhat even if
al)
known family- planning methods
were pushed to lhe fullest, tbe world's
population wiU still [almost) doubte by
about 2006," said Douglas E.nsminger,
an ' internationally recognized popu–
lation expert.
"Even if we suceeed in substantiaUy
lowering lhc world population rate, the
number of people for severa! decades
will grow faucr than we are likely to
succeed in inaeasing
food
production:'
adds Ensrninger.
Severa! developed nations bave come
very dose
to
achieving z.ero population
growth. A few have achieved iL
Assuming lhe miraculous bappened
and tbe number of children bom to
every woman in lhe developing coun·
tries was cut in half (rougbly replace–
ment-Jevel fcrtility), zero world
population growth would still not be
acbieved until the end of tbe next cen–
tury.
lf a populalion ceiling oftwo children
were suddenly universal.ly adopted, it
would stitl mean over fivc billion people
on
earth
by lhe year 2000, and world
populalion would gradually leve! off
only after that higb tbreshold bad beeo
reached.
The primary problem rcsponsible for
tbis condition stems from lhe very struc–
ture of tbe population in many devel–
oping natioru. In rnany of lhese lands,
lhe number of people under JS years of
age oornprises
40%
or more of lhe popo–
lace. Median age in these oountries is
around
19
compared
10 31
in lhe devel–
oped oountries. Tbis means record num–
bers ofwomen wiU be ooming into lhcir
pea1r
childbearing years in the next few
decades. Consequently, populations in
developing natioru will continuo to swetl
for sorne time to come even
ir
fertility
rates steadily drop
10
replacement tevels,
whicb all officials oonsider ext.rernety un–
likely. There is no
~vidence
such a pre–
cipitous birth-rate decline
is
imminent
in tbe devclopin.g wortd.
Tbe U.S. Population Reference Bu–
rcau
Jllrnrncd
up this Jituation as fot–
lows:
~In
order to acbieve a nongrowing
population, even in most of the more
developed countrles, fertility would have
to decline signiflcantly
below the replace-
mem leve/.
In lhe less developed coun–
tries such a siruation seems
inconceivable during the ooming
SO
years ..." (
World Population Projec–
tlolll:
Altunoli~
Paths to
~ro
Growtlo,
p.
26).
Pbilander Claxton,
special
assistant to
tbe secretary of state for population
matters, puts lhe problem on the sim–
ptest ofterms: "The wortd must prepare
for a world population of at least
6
bil–
lion by
2000.
Tbere is nothing except
famine, pestilence, or nuclear war lo
prevent it frorn reaching lhat ftgure.
That's tbe mínimum."
Birtb Conlrol
or
Else
Witb almost one voice populatoon ex–
pertS say lhat übirth rates in most ofthe
developing world are not drastically
dropped, a)J other attempts by govem–
ment.s lo combat the population.food
crisis will be futile.
But, cvcn assuming the unachievable,
how do governments suddenly and radi–
calty chango lhe most intimate sexual
bebavior of lheir citizens? Can lhe fre–
quently unstable, oorTUpt, and poor gov–
ernments in lhese natioru persuade tbeir
teeming and onen illiterate rnasses
to
TCJect tribal traditíons sucb as the cus–
tom of producing mulliplc soru for fu–
ture security?
Can
tbey suddenly change
inefficient agricultura! practices? Can
govemments wipe out superstitious food
"- .. and there
w/11
be temlnes
end earthquakes In varlous
p/aces."
- Matt
24:7, RSV
taboos tbat in many widespread arcas
do not pennit cbid:en, eggs, milk, and
other ricb protein sources to be used as
food?
Reaching zero population growlh in
overfed Westem nations does very Uttle
10
solve tbe problem in lhe main arena
of tbe food-populatioo . race: Asia,
Africa, and Latin Amcrica.
"Considering lhe growing inter–
dependence among the nations of lhe
earth and tbe protüeration of sophis-–
ticated wcaponry around lhe world. no
country - bowever farsigbted it may be
in oontrolling its
own
popular.ion - can
escape the consequences of
lhe
failure of
others to moderate populalion growth,"
said Dr. Russcll Peterson, chairman of
the U.S. Council on Environmental
Quality.
Science to
tbe
Reseue!
In Nortb America,
40%
of the diet
is
milk, meat, ew, and fisb; in Africa,
11%; in the Near
East,
9%;
in the Far
East, only
S%.
Admiuedly, North Amcr–
icans could do wilh less of sucb foods,
but what can science do to materially
change such overwhetming odds?
Rising expectations and aJIIuence in
developed nations are actuaUy adding to
tbe disparity by crealing new dernands
on shrinlting world food supplies. Pcople
increasingly want
"indirect~
protein
from meat, not directly from graons and
vcsctablcs. And tbe
rich
nationJ ore out–
bidding lhe poor and needy ruuions wbo
cannot as readily.alford to pay.
An even more critica! factor than
ris–
ing af!\uence is the fact thar vittually aU
fli!BRUARY 1976