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the readlly exploitable arable land in the
world (3.S billion acres)
is
alrcady undcr
cultivation. The vast majority of land in
most countries
is
unutisfactory for
fanning, being too precipitous and too
rugged, or bAving soil too infenilc.
Only
1'1.
of Ausual.ia is suitablc for
cropland, only
1~
ofChina, only S% of
Canada. Unfortunately the ec¡uatorial
rain forests of the world or the Amazon
basin
is
no agricultura! El Dorado. The
soil is
so thin, so low in fertilily, and so
higb in {ragility that it is leached of
essential nutrients afler the beavy rains
ofjust
a
few growing
seasons.
Experts e:stimate
6.6
billion more
acres could be tiUed
if
govemments were
willing to pay massive development
costs. But nations wbosc GNP averagcs
out to around a fcw hundred dollars
a
year per person simply cannoi alford to
shell out the minimum of
$400
ptr acre
(over
S1,000
is a bctter average) to bring
new Jands into productioo.
Where will water for the oew lands
come from? Most readily exploitablc
water sources have already beco
dammed or tapped. ln addition, over–
grazing or poor irrigation practices are
annually tuming thousands of acres of
once arable land into barren ground or
sah dcserts.
Everywbere in the world, three quar–
ters or so of oew populatioo growth ends
up in cities.
lo
developing and indus–
trialized nations. alike, cities creep
deeper into fertile countrysides, replac–
ing ftelds of wheat, com, and rice with
bousing projects and paved roadways.
ea..
Amtrica
Play
God?
Wben food sbortages or famines de–
velop anywbere in tbe world, all eyes
immediately tum toward Nortb Amer–
ica. The United States, along with Can–
ada, supplies SS% of the world's
internationally traded grain. Not a
single significant new exponer of grain
has appeared in the past quarter cen·
tury.
America may no longer be tbe police–
man of tbe workl. but it has become its
grocer. Al\er feeding their own country·
men, American farmers bave
le~\>
over
for export nearly
~
of their wheat and
rice, nearly balf of tbéir sqybeans, one
founb of their grain sorgbum, and over
oneliflb oftbeircom.
~lo
a world of food scarcity ... North
Amerita must decide wbo sets how
mucb food and on wbat tenns," said one
U.S. agricultural official
America
is
blcssed with the largest
contiguous land mass of fenilc soil, good
growing climate, and adequatc rainfaU
of any place on
earth.
Wbile the best
growins land in thc U.S. líes south of tbe
4Stb parallel, most ofthe Soviet Union's
lies
above
ít.
That's tbe main reason
Soviet grain production
is
a very chancy
tbing. "The best land in Russia has a
climate something like Nonh Oakota -
and from there on it gets worse," said
ooe ooted climatologist.
Nearly every govemment ot!icial
agrecs the United States can apply its
tremendous agricultura! capacity as
a
le–
ver on roreign countrie:s
10
adopt pol–
icies beneficia!
to
Washington
if
it
cbooses todo so.
Tbere
is
strong evidence, for example,
that the Soviet Union did not try to
FEBRUA.RY 1976
interfere with the Sinai agreemeni be–
tween Egypt aod Israel because of the
Soviet need to purcbase American grain.
A significan! amount of the warming up
in U.S.-Egyptian relations bas been
credited
10
food by U.S. Secretary of
Agriculture Earl Butz.
~¡
bad a little
wheat in my poctet,"
says
Butz.
But since food is sucb an elemental
human need, witbholding it to any
needy nation would raise a moral di–
lemma. ÜCan you imagine the repercus–
sions of the U.S. trying to play God?"
ask.s
one White
House
official.
As
formidable
as
it is, it is cetta in tbat
eveo the great food-producins capacity
of tbe U.S. could not feed a world
stricken with huge famines for very long.
America's safety reserve of idlc crop
land has already been tbrown into pro–
duction. There is only so mucb the U.S.
can produce and gíve. A huge moral
dilemma faces American leadership in
tbe near future
if
the country witbout
enoush food for aU must decide wbo
sbaU eat and wbo sbaU starve.
· No one wants to tbink about sueh
a
situation, but those who have thought
about it cautiously present thc case for
triage.
a
Freneh tenn 6rst applied to
wounded soldiers:
lo
the 6rst category
are tbose wbo can swvive without treat–
ment thougb they may be suJI'ering
se–
verely - tbe "wallcing wounded." In tbe
second category are !hose wbo can be
saved by immediate eare. ln the last
eategory are those so seriously wounded
they cannot survive regardless of the
treatment given to them- thc "can't be
saved."
Cruel
as it sounds, the U.S. could con–
ceivably be forced to write
otr
millions
or
starvins people in "third..:atesory"
nations whose population growth has far
exceeded tbeir own agricultura! capacity.
Weather Upsets Abead; WUI America
Even Be Able to Feed
11~111
As
we havo seen, population growth
in the years ahead wiU generate more
and more Camines even in relatively
good years. But tbe biggcst single factor
tbat
prrsently
separates aU oations from
feast or ra.mine is not yeatly population
growth, but
weather.
Leadin~
climato–
logists wam tbat even the Un1ted States
may be headed for tougb years if certain
adverse weather cycles of the put are
repeated.
' 'The evidence is
now
abundantly
clear that tbe climate of tbe earth is
cbanging in a dirccrion that
is
not prom–
ising in tenns of our ability to feed the
world," says Reid Bryson, noted Univer–
sity ofWisconsin climatologist.
Witb world food supplies so pre–
carious, "even a mild drought in the
Great Plains could be a clisaster," adds
a
U.S. agricultura!
official.
Man.kind, witb reasonable weather,
can possibly avoid mass Camines for as
mucb as
a
decade. But if any sudden
cbange of weatber bits the world's
breadbaslcet nations, massive Camines
could result almost ovemigbL
Will the
U
.S.
see a
retum of the dust–
bowl years ofthe tbirtics and 61\ies?
So vital a factor is tbe weatber tbat it
will be the subjeet of Part
2
of tbe
Food-Populatio11. Crisis in the next issue
of
Plain Truth.
(To Be Continued)
9