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The wodd tlliled to replenlsh lts
depleted food stocks In 1975, snd
lhe ouUook tor the hungry In 1
97~
ls blealc. Bumper grain harvests
In North Americe
were
o"set by
poor c#'Ops In Europe
and
the
So·
lflet Unlon. Year-end wheat
stoclrs are
likltl~
to
be
•~n
lo-r
then In 1974 when they were
dralned by
a
worldwlde tood
shormge. As a result, the world
wf/1
be
r!ependent tor whet
1t
eats
In 1976 on whet it grows -
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
news release, December 29, 197.5.
S
ilenlly, ominously, inexorably, the
food-population crisis
is
closing
in on our ovcrcrowded world -
oow containing four billion people as of
November
1975.
h
is
the most complcx
and nearly insoluble problem that
has
evcr faced the human race. Next to nu–
clear annihilation, tbis crisis is the grcat–
est threat to swvival for hundreds of
millions ofthe earth's inbabitants. Yet it
is
largely an igoored
crisis.
Already the world
is
bard
pressed to
keep food supplies abead
of
population
growth and food demancL There
is
lcss
food per person on the planet today
Iban thirty years ago. World population
is
growing almost
~
per
year, food sup–
ply is increasing
2W~,
but food dcmand
is
inereasing
3%
per yeaT. Aflluence and
rising expectations are emerging as a
major new cla.iiJWlt oo world food sup–
pües, in addition to populatioo in–
creases.
Humanity as
a
wbole
is
litetaUy living
band to
mou~
staking everythíog on
the next grain harvest aod depeoding
upon the blessiogs of good weatber. In
recent yean, bowever, monsoon failures,
drougbts, and other weather upsets bave
dcvastated
immensc
crop arcas in !he
Soviet Uoion, China, Afriea,
India~
aod
even
paru
of the Uoited States. Uoder
the combioed assauh of bad weather,
soaring populations, · aod afllueot dc–
mands, world grain reserves have plum–
meted from
95
days in
1961
to less Iban
30
days today.
Uoremittingly, the ragged leading
edge of famine's scytbe reaps ao inereas–
ing toU in sulfering aod death
in
the
canh's famine bclt - Afriea, Latio
Ameriea, aod many pans of Asia. Hun–
ger aod malnutritioo preseolly plague
over baJf of bumaoity. Over
SOO
millioo
are cbronieaUy buogty, barely surviving
on !he edge of life. These unfortuoate
milliona are more or less rccogoizablc
bceause of physical disabilities or the
bloaled or emaciated bodies iodicative
of outritional defteiencies. Lcss recogniz–
able
are
the tragic oumbers of peoplc
wbose mental development is per–
manentl)' stuntecL Most or tbese are
cbildren, a quaner toa balfofwhom die
before age 6ve. So far, scores ofmillions
are dying silently eacb year from the
ravages ormaloutrition and starvation.
FEBRUARY 1976
HUMAN
SURVIVAL
By
the
year
2000
HOWWILL
WEFEED
THEWORLD'S
&BILLION?
~
by
Oonald O. Schroeder
What haunts "food futurists" is tbis:
Food supplies ean only be inereased
graduaUy, but populations
are
destined
to grow explosively despite reduetions in
binh rates aU ovcr the world in recent
years.
In
1965
global population was in–
creasing at
~
annually. Dueto national
aod ínternational efforts, tbe rate was
brought down to
1.7%
in
1974.
Whether
future declines
wiU
be rapid enougb to
stavc off massivc famincs
is
a
gre&l
un·
aoswered queslloo.
Populatioo aod food officials disclose
thal close lo
a
doubling of curren! food
productioo
is
already oeeded just lo
bring the present
world's
populalion up
to ao adequate dietary lcvcl.
E
ven if we
aocept the conservative figure of
siJ<
bil–
lioo people living oo the
earth
al the
begioning
or
the tweoty-first ceotury,
food productioo
four times
the present
level
will
be required.
A New Oark Age?
Since lbe early
1960s,
literally huo·
dreds of top-raolúng leaders in aU fields
have ecboed apocalyptic warnings of
famines ahead uoless mankiod unitedly
acts to rapidly iocrease food supplies
and to bluot populatioo growtb.
The population experts aod statisti–
eia.ns tell
us
if
three to four billion more
human beings are added in
thJs
century
to today's four hillion human inhabi–
tants, ooly abject poverty, ecooomic
stagnation, and pcrmanent $tmi·
starvation will await thc vast majority of
maokind.
The world, they
tell
us,
eannot survive
in peace and stability with
a
"Luxuty
Club" of three quaners of a b•llion
human beings living in a score of ad–
vanced and well·fed countries while !he
rest of humaoity watcbes tbe slim means
ofsurvival steadily sbriok from its grasp.
Wben thc poor have ootlúng to eat aod
no hope for future progress, they also
bave
nothing
to
lose
by
violeot
revolution
Despite the multitude of warniogs
that mankiod ean solve the onrusbing
food-population crisis only if be acts im–
mediately, most nations are aeting as
if
it's somebody else's problem,
or as
if
tbey ean lackle it after tbey get other
nagging problems out of thc way.
~we
are partieipating in
a
graod-scale
evasion of reality whicb
bears
all !he
signs of insanity," said Dr. Georg
Borgstrom, ooted populatioo expert, a
few yean ago. "Notbing less
is
required
Iban a global wiU lo act" to ward off lhe
calamity,.be said.
"Vety
few grasp tbe magoitude of the
danger that confronts us," said Thomas
M.
Ware, bead of !he Freedom From
Hungcr Foundation, before
a
Seoate
subcommiuee as early
as 1965.
"'Tbe ea–
tastropbe
is
not something that may
bappen; oo the contrary, it is a mathe–
maticalcenainty it
w.ill
hnppeo."
lt
is
happeniog todáy, but few, East or
West. seem overly concerned.
Tv.o
years ago the wortd population
and food crisis was propeUed
10
world
attention wben
1974
was designated as
"World Populauon .Year." Several rhet–
oric.filled intemational meetings were
beld; yet today none of tbe proposed
Jofty schemes havegouen olflhe ground
to
foratall
future
famines
aod
starvation
AU is not totaUy bopeless even yet.
Don Paarlberg, cbief economist for tbe
U.S. Depanmeot of Agriculture, states
that "for tbe next decade there
is
a cea–
sonable likelihood that food productioo
can
be kept half
a
step ahcad of popu·
lation." But after lhat, be says, projccted
birtb tates zoom olf the cbans and food
productioo at curren! levels simply
woo't be able to
keep
pace.
A
<Atotury
or Unprecedent...
Populatioo Growtb
Many do not realize tbat population
in=ases in IbiS centuty are uoparal·
leled in recordcd bistory. Only a luc:ky
combinatioo of the past few dec:ades of
good weatber and oew agricultural tecb·
oology
has
permitted nations to barely
lceep abead of burgeooing population
demauds. But
in
tbe years abead !he
stork
is
destined to outdistance the plow.
lt
is
hard to imagi.ne today's nearly
2%
annual world population growth tate as
"explosive," but the figure
is
deceptively
smaU. Compared wilh thc rest of history,
it
is
a staggering rate and poneods in–
credíbly tapid population mercases for
tbe rest ofthis ceotuty.
A
loolc at maokind's history of popu·
lation growth
is
oecessary to appreciate
ohis
raet.
Duc to war, diseasc, nnd
stnrv8tion.
world population grew at mere fraetions
of
1%
annuaUy
unlil this cenlu')'.
At
7