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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, FEBRUARY 17, 1984
officials about the new power structure in the Politburo. Senior
Kremlin aides told some visitors that Gorbachev, 52, was now the
effective No. �the Kremlin, making him Chernenko's deputy and
heir-apparent.- -,
, !�looks as if Gorbachov has been guaranteed
second place as part of the deal which put Chernenko into power.
That would mean the leadership has already pre-programmed the
next succession," one Western analyst said.
Signs that
Gorbachev, the youngest member of the Politburo, was now second
to Chernenko emerged shortly after the new Communist Party chief
was elected Monday. When the Politburo twice lined up to pay
respects at Andropov's coffin, Gorbachev was placed on
Chernenko's right, the position traditionally taken by the
Kremlin No. 2. Gorbachev, in charge of overall economic strategy
under Andropov, was clearly the former leader's own choice as
successor....
Thus the overall impression then is that the Chernenko era is likely to be
relatively short and uneventful. The members of the 12-man Politburo were
simply not willing to reach down at this time to someone in the next half
generation below them. In the February 20, 1984 U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT,
Adam Ulam, an authority on Soviet politics, asked the following--before it
was known that Konstantin Chernenko had been selected as General
Secretary:
Wi11 it happen under this leader?
If the new man has a very
strong personality, manages to get tremendous leverage within the
Politburo and the Secretariat, then he may risk some very basic
reform--such as changing the agricultural system, reorienting the
economy, trying new initiatives in world politics. Failing that,
however, he willtollow the same beaten path as his predeces
sors.
It is obvious that Chernenko is not this type of innovative leader. Perhaps
Mr. Gorbachev, if and when he takes control, might be more amenable to
"trying new initiatives in world politics," such as a "new deal" regarding
Eastern Europe. Gorbachev was only age 13 when World War II ended. He is
of the generation that did not have any leadership role in the trying days
of the "Great Patriotic War."
Lebanese Debacle: Another U.S. Foreign Policy Blunder
With the Lebanese army forces of President Amin Gemayel collapsing all
about them, the U.S. Marines, in their base south of Beirut, are all but
surrounded by hostile forces, their backs against the Mediterranean Sea.
President Reagan has already announced a staged removal of the marines to
warships offshore, although no firm evacuation timetable has been set.
American credibility has been dealt a very sizeable blow, far worse than
the U.S. public seems to realize. As recently as February 3, the President
said in an interview that for the United States to get out of Lebanon "means
a pretty disastrous result for us worldwide." Deputy Secretary of State
Kenneth Dam added, "America's credibility is at stake in Lebanon. Every
regional state--friend and foe alike--is watching our actions for proof of
America's strength and its ability to promote peace."
But after all this rhetoric, reality has set in on an ill-conceived policy
and "the boys" are coming out. The February 8 WALL STREET JOURNAL noted the