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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, FEBRUARY 17, 1984
PAGE 7
There's little to distinguish Mr. Chernenko's career, other than
his close relationship with Mr. Brezhnev.
He was born in
Siberia, into what he has described as "a large and poor peasant
family." ... His career seemed to be going nowhere, in a series of
dead-end party jobs, until he met Mr. Brezhnev in 1950 in
Moldavia.... The two became friends, and in 1960, when Mr.
Brezhnev became chairman of the Supreme Soviet, he asked Mr.
Chernenko to direct his personal staff. As Mr. Brezhnev's power
increased, so did that of his protege. But U.S. officials who
met Mr. Chernenko at summit conferences during the 1970s weren't
impressed. Officials describe him, variously, as a "flunky,"
"coat-carrier" and "gofer" for Mr. Brezhnev....
To improve Soviet economic performance, Mr. Chernenko faces the
same basic choice Mr. Andropov did: discipline or reform. Both
carry political dangers; but U.S. analysts believe that without
some strong economic medicine, Mr. Chernenko won't be able to
rev'erse the steady slide 1n the growth of Soviet output that has
taken place since the mid 1960s. "The Soviet economy will stay
1n a slow-growth--p1ateau," predicts Jan Vanous, a Soviet
specialist at Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates.
He
argues that because of Mr. Chernenko's close ties to the party
apparatus, he isn't likely to undertake any major reforms that
would give Soviet managers more freedom.
In his first public appearance before foreign leaders, at the Andropov
funeral, Mr. Chernenko did not make too imposing an impression.
He
appeared, in fact, to be in rather poor health. And in the background,
Western experts detected the "number two" man in the Kremlin, 52-year old
Mikhail Gorbachev. Here is a February 15 Reuters dispatch:
New Soviet leader Konstantin Chernenko appeared in frail health
when he met foreign leaders in Moscow yesterday, and some gained
the impression he would be only an interim leader,aiplomatic
sources said today. Soviet officI"als also told some visitors
that Politburo member Mikhail Gorbachev [spelled usually with an
"ev" at the endl would be No. 2 in the Kremlin, indicating that
the leadership may have already mapped out a future succession.
Chernenko, 72, gave an impression of frai1ty when he led the
funeral of his predecessor, Yuri Andropov, on Moscow's Red Square
yesterday. He was short of breath and appeared unable to hold
his arm up in a salute for more than brief periods. In the most
knowledgeable assessment of his condition, British politician
David Owen, a physician, said today that Chernenko was suffering
from emphysema. This involves fibrosis of the lungs, which leads
to shortage of breath and often serious heart strain. Medical
dictionaries say it also causes a "barrel chest" in older people,
a condition Chernenko appears to have....
However, Vice President George Bush took the opposite view,
saying the new Soviet leader "appeared very vital.... He gave me
the impression of a man...who has a potential to be a strong
leader."
Diplomats said the
short-term leader
impression that Chernenko might be only a
was reinforced by comments from Soviet