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another major concern. Current est i–
mates forecast zero g rowt h for
1983.
Bankruptcies are at an all-t ime
high. The alarming rise in bank–
ruptcies and business collapses was
spotlighted las t year by the biggest
corporate failure in West German
history. West Germany's giant
electronics company- AEG-Tele–
funken-collapsed, sending shivers
through the West German econo–
my. The crash of the company–
long a household name throughout
Germany and Europe-<iealt a se–
vere psychological blow to West
Germans and dented economic self–
con fidence.
Declining productivity is yct
another concern, as are trade defi–
cits, slowly rising inAation and a
massive domestic budget shortfall.
This gloomy economic outlook–
which sorne government econo–
mists say could even prove "overly
optimist ic"- is bad news for Chan–
cellor Kohl. Business circlcs seri–
ously question his abil ity to bring
about an economic upturn in the
near future.
There is probably no way out of
the economic muddle except to cut
back on over-stretched socialtyelfare
and other public spending. "We
have lived beyond our means," Mr.
Kohl himself has observed. "And
sorne people, including sorne peliti–
cal leaders, have kept believing that
you can live better and better while
at the same time working less and
less. We now have to face the most
challenging economic situation since
the end of the war. There has been
too much public spending, and there
are more debts than ever before."
Cutting public spending is not an
easy program to implement. Such
austerity moves encounter consid–
erable resistance, particularly from
trade unions.
Yet persuasive voices are declar–
ing such cuts are the only way out.
"Our peop le
must learn
again ... to make sacrifices," as–
serts conservative CSU (Christian
Social Union) party chief Franz
Josef Strauss.
There is clearly no quick and
painless way out. As Dr. Strauss
has also observed, "We have no
magic formulas. We only have the
right principies."
10
But to impatient voters, are right
principies enough?
New Third Force
Another major concern to Chancel–
lor Kohl as he surveys his prospects
is the emergence of a new natíonal
party known as
Die Gruenen-the
"Greens." The Greens could signifi–
cant iy alter the entire course of West
Germany's political development.
The Greens are a militant, anti–
establishment alliance of diverse
groups, including pacifists, envi–
ronmentalists, Marxists, ant inu–
clea r protest groups and the like.
The Greens seek the expulsion of
foreign troops from German soil,
dissolution of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) and
the creation o f a "nuclear-free
zone" in Europe.
Unlikely as it might seem on the
surface, the Greens are given an
excellent chance of entering parlia–
ment in the next elect ions. They
have grown into a potent political
force in a relatively short period of
time.
Under German electoral law, a
political party must win a míni–
mum of 5 percent of the votes to
get a share of the seats. Public
opinion polls indicate the Greens
will almost certainly be able to
meet this requirement.
The freewheeling Greens, in
fact, appear to have already become
the country's third political force.
The small Free Democratic
Party (FDP), on the other hand,
may well be eliminated from the
legíslature in the next balloting.
(lt was the FDP that precipitated
last autumn's government crisis
by withdrawing its support from
the Social Democrats and entering
a new alliance with Dr. Kohl 's
CDU/CSU conservatives.) In var–
ious state elections, the FDP has
al ready fallen below the
s.
percent
popular vote leve! required by the
constitution to seat a party in par–
liament.
Election Prospect s
If
the FDP is cast out of parliament
in the coming general elections, the
consequences could be far-reach–
ing--especially if the Greens end up
holding the balance of power. By
refusing any coalition, the Greens
could make governing by either
major party impossible. In the case
of such a deadlock, anotber election
might be necessary almost immedi–
ately.
Analysts, however, have not ruled
out a clear conservative victory at the
polls. Were the CDU/CSU alliance
to win an absolute majority, they
could then form a new government
with a free hand, unencumbered by
the liberal FDP or any other noncon–
servative elements.
Surprisingly, however, observers
feel that Chancellor Kohl would
actual ly
prefer
having to form a
coalition with the liberal FDP to
the prospect of achieving an abso–
lute majority.
The reason?
H e would like to limit the
influence of the conservative right
wing- spearheaded by Franz J osef
Strauss- within bis CDU/CSU
al liance. Chancellor Kohl
needs
the
center liberals if he is to keep West
Germany on the type of middle–
of-the-road course he envisions.
Dependence on the FDP would
serve to lessen right-wing pressure
within the coaJi tion.
Chancellor Kohl's concern cen–
ters around the figure of Herr
Strauss, leader of the CDU's Ba–
varian affi liate party, tbe CSU. Dr.
Strauss is West Germany's most
controversia] politician and widely
held to be the strongest personality
in German politics today. Though
Chancellor Kohl's political ally, the
CSU chief has long been at odds
with Kohl's positions on a wide
variety of issues.
Herr Strauss, for example ,
pressed for new national elections
last autumn as the proper way out
of the governmental crisis. He felt
the CDU/CSU could easily win a
clear mandate at that time. Such a
victory, he observed, would make it
unnecessary to have anything todo
with the discredited Free Demo–
crats. He felt the FDP was not to
be trusted, in view of its "infideli–
ty" to the SPD.
Dr. Strauss ultimately deferred
to Kohl, who backed the unusual
parliamentary maneuver that im–
mediately removed Chancellor
Schmidt from power and post–
poned elections until spring. Mr.
Strauss subsequently chose not to
The
PLAIN TRUTH