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-ROBABILI
Probability is that branch ofmathematics which deals with "chance" or uncertain phenomena. The probability
ofa given event is a number, between zero and one, which measures how likely it is that the event will occur. lf
an event is impossib/e, its probability is zero. lf an event is an absolute certainty, its probability is one. A
probability of one out of two, or 112, means that
it
is justas likely that the event will happen as it is that the
event wi/1 not happen. Sometimes this situation is described by terms such as "50 percent chance," "50-50
chance," or "even money." The closer the probability is to one, the likelier the event is. For instance, an event
whose probability is equal to one out o[ ten (or 11
JO)
is more probable than one whose probability is one out of
a thousand (or 111000). On the other hand, the closer the probability is to zero, the /ess /ikely the event is. An
event whose probability is 111000 is less probable than one whose probability is 11
JO.
Now to the question at
hand. What does probability have to do with evolution? The theory of evolution c/aims that life, in al/ of its
complexity, original/y carne into existence by random combinations of dead chemica/s, i.e., by chance. And
since probability is the mathematics of chance, probability should have a great deal to say about evolution. In
the following two artic/es sorne ofthe relationships between evolution and probability are discussed.
A LEFT-HANDED TWIST:
AM INOACIDS
IN METEORITES-–
EVIDENCE FOR EVOLUTION?
¡\ccording to modero evolutionary theory, pr imitive
rt
life first appeared on the earth severa! billion years
ago when random combinations of simple molecules
such as methane, ammonia and water fortuitously carne
together to form amino acids. These amino acids in turn
presumably united to form exceedingly complex pro–
teins which then combined with nucleic acids that hap–
pened to be present to ultimately yield a self-replicating
group of molecules: "primitive" life.
For years, many men, especially those religiously ori–
ented, questioned whether such simple molecules could
ever-by chance-produce amino acids, whicb are con–
siderably more complex. Then, in 1953, Dr. Stanley
Miller and other scientists demonstrated tbat if bydro–
gen, ammonia, methane, and water vapor were placed
in a simulated "primitive planetary atmosphere," these
simple molecules could indeed produce amino acids!
More recently Dr. Sidney Fox of the University of
Miami succeeded in synthesizing sorne nine amino acids
by heating ammonia and
(Continued on page 14)
LIFE BYCHANCE?
\
'l
There did life come from? Did highly complex
V V
molecules form by chance in a primeva! chemical
soup? Did these molecules combine by chance into
highly complex combinations thereby producing
"simple" living organisms? Did such "simple" orga–
nisms evolve into increasingly more complex living or–
ganisms over billions of years by chance mutations and
natural selection?
According to the theory of evolution, allliving things,
all human beings, all that we know of life on earth carne
into existence through such chance processes.
Just how credible is the theory of evolution? What
happens if we apply the laws of chance- probability-to
the theory?
In the following, the facts will sbow the utter improb–
ability of even the "simplest" constituents of life coming
into existence by chance, the greater improbability of
such constituents actually producing living organisms
by chance, and the fundamental inadequacies of the
arguments otfered by evolutionists to try to make im–
probable events probable.
First of all , let us consider the probability of a
"simple" protein forming by chance.
Proteins are, of course, essential molecules for the
existence oflife. These molecules
(Continued on page 15)
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The
PLAIN TRUTH August 1978
13