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.JUST WHAT 15
''THECLUB
OFROME"?
In Aprll 1963. a group of lhirty indlvid·
uals from '"" countriel - acientlsts,
educatora, economlsts, humanis1s, ln–
dustriallsts, and national and lnter·
natlona! civil servants - gathered in
Aome. They met lo discuss a subject of
staggering scope- the presant and
fu.
ture predlcament of man.
Out of this meeting grew The Club of
Aome. an informal organlzation that has
been aptly deseribed by
some u
an "In–
visible conege."
lis
stated purposes are lo foster under–
standing of !he many varled, but lnter–
dependent components - economic, po–
lítical, natural, and social - that mal<e
up the global aystem ln whlch we all llve;
to bring that new understandlng to the
attention of pollcy makers and the public
worldwlde; and to promote new polk:y ln>–
tiatlve and action. Since their original
meeting, they have held more !han fltty
GOODNEWS
&
BADNEWS
In our August
23
lssue, we dlgested lhe
two moat prevalen! oullooka regarding
mankind's futura survival on planet earth.
One was the Llmits to Growth lheory (the
"bed news") and th8 other was !he Post·
Industrial Soclety (the "good news"). We
invitad our readers to respond to the sce–
narlo whlch they belleved to be more
llkely. Here ls a sample response.
TheGoodN-•
In response to lhe "Two Vlews of the
Futura" article: 1consider myself lo be a
re&Jistic,
yet
optimlstic young man
wTio
belleves ln tho potenlial ot man to solve
his probfem&
1 leal,
even though the present wor1d
siluation ls less than deslrable. there are
many gOOd foundatlons on which to buíld
and thls country ls one of the best pfaces
to
start.
And
1
am
sure there are many
yovng people In Amertca, such as myself,
who would do anythlng In lhelr power lo
insure a brlghter and more stable tuture
tor our country.
J. Richard Mulllns,
FortWorth,TX
From trme lmmemorial rellglonists and
alarmista
haYe painted horñfylng pictures
of a soon-comlng destruction of man–
kind. But just when
11
aeemed that the
pessimists' predictions were on the verge
of fulfillment, another new age of man–
klnd would dawn. Doomsdayers claim
that the odds are against humanlty'a sur–
viva!. But odds arejust that - odds. Pes–
sfmlsts !ove to angulsh over supposed
catastrophes end resource shortages.
For example, In 1929 a World Bank afudy
indlcated thalthe world had only 10 more
years
ot
tin supplles. Forty years later
Limlts to Growlh foresaw 15 years of tin
suppliel lefl Uslng lhe extrapolation
methods of the alarmists, 1would guess
WEEK ENDINO NOVEMBER 22, 1975
major conferences in clties all around the
world.
A series of early meetings of The Club
ot Roma resultad In the lnltiatlon of a
three-phased study of the predlcament of
mankind. The purpose.of the projec1 was
to examine the complex of probfems
troubfing men of all nations: poverty in
the midst of plenty, degradatlon of the
envlronment. loss of faith In lnslitutlons,
uncontrolled urban spread, insecurity of
employment. allenatlon ot youlh. reJec·
tion ot traditlonal vaJues.
and
monetary
and economlc disruptions. These tactors,
collectively called the " World Problema–
tique." were studied on lhree levels by
three teams of experts.
Phase One
Phase one of th8 project on the predi·
cament of manklnd took shape at meet–
ings held In the summer of 1970 in Bem,
Swltzerland, and Cambridge, Massachu·
setts. Professor Jay Forrester of the Mas–
sachusetts lnstltute of Technology (MIT)
developed a global modal and auggesled
a technlque for analyzing the relatlon·
shlps and the behavlor of the most
importan! components of Wortd Prob–
lematlque. Then, studles conducted
by
an lnternatlonal team under the dlrec-
that by
2000
we will have a 30-year sup–
ply. and aoon afterward, an inexhaustible
supptyl
lt's trua that crisos often cause hard–
shlp and destructlon In Umlted areas, but
many times they also generala startllng
new dlscoverles and advancem""ta.
1
for
one lhfnk man has a good chance to sur–
vive and to progresa -
11
he's wllllng to
expend the effort
E. L.
El Dorado, AA
A
Balanced Vlaw
In
your
August
23
issue under the ar–
ticle entltled, "Two Vlews of !he Futura."
you req..-ted readers wríte
11'1
with their
comments on lhese two views.
1t
seems
tome that rather than befng an either/ or
situation that there is an element of
varacity In both vlews. Both vlews have
wldespread oupport because both
premisee have substantive merit
1t
ls
remlniscent ot th8 Whest and tares of
Matthew 13. Surely no thlnklng person
that
vlews
the whola of manklnd's enorts
objecOvely can deny that mankind has
progressed ln hls capaclty for both the
betterment of 1ife, and lhe destructlon of
11.
Aather than saylng lt's this or lhat,
1
suggest wa recognlze our potenVals of
both productlvlty and destructiv,.,ess,
and set about to nurture the one whlle
holding the olher in check.
Marvfn T. Talbott.
Leander.
TX
Concernlng your articfe, "Two Vlews of
the Future," lhe par!, ' 'The Good
News -
A Post Industrial World," ls
my
choice to
hear more about
lt
lo
good
to know one·s
bad polnts.
But
1
believe the emphasis should be
on lhe positiva and not the negativa. Or
maybe an article containlng the pros and
1:ons of each topic.
ThaBad News
Aoy
E.
Barro
ase.
NewOrleans.
LA
1beiieve the Limlts to Growth theory.
1
belleve that human lnstltutions cannot
tion of Professor O""nis
Meadows
exam–
inad five basic factors that determine and
th8(efore ultimately llmit growth on this
planet populatlon, agricultura! produc–
lion, natural resources, industrial produc·
!ion. and pollution. The flndings of the
studywere publlshed In 19721n !he book,
Limlfs lo Growfh, which has since been
translated lnto 34 languages wlth a total
sales of more than six mllllon.
PhaoeTwo
Phase two of the club's actlvities r&–
sulted In the publlcation ot ManJ<ind
al
fhe
Tumlng Point. by MihaPo Mesarovic
of Case Western Reserve Unlverslty,
Cieveland, Ohio, a.nd Eduard Peste! of
Hanover University In West Germany,
pubfished in 1974 by E. P. Outton
&
Co.
and The Reader·s Olgest Press. Flfty re–
searchers from nlne countrles contrib–
uted lo lhe computar model on Which the
book is basad. Unllke the Llmlfs to
Growfh modal, whlch lumped together
data tor the entlre world, lhe new modal
accounted for developments in ten sepa·
rata world reglons. each wllh lis own
characterlstic set ot resources. lnter...
actions betw8"" various reglons were
also lncl uded In lhe modal.
The results otlhe 197• studywarned of
stand lhe straln of the other and changa
wiiJ be too siow.
Wlllard Johnson,
PopulaUon Study Center
San Olego, CA
1
must comment that the column
headed " The Bad News" appeals to me
¡¡s the true outlook.
1t
correspondo
lo
the
prophecles of the Maater. and the proph–
ets of old. In tact.
11
sets torth God's Plan;
which should not -
in
essence - be
callad "bad" ....
Man is "foullng hls nest"
in
avery way;
and
these many violatlons (both phyalcal
and splrllual) of Natural Law have already
eamed the punlshm""ts that win come.
Th e penalties are belng stored llke
"Grapes of Wrath," and are aura. Mal–
thua provided soma helpful mathematlcs;
but lhe real "cllnchers" are In the grim
words of the prophets •.•.
The time comes close for trlbulatlons;
and then the Klngdom.
Lester S. Parker,
Topeka, KS
Your artlcte stated that those attending
the futurlsts' conference were about
equally dlvlded between the two oppos–
lng vie- Lat
us
assume lhat the manes
of people are simllarly dlvlded. How can
we hope to get enough peopfe lo agree
on What meuures to take In order to pr&–
vent the assorted problems lhat Ioom in
the futura? And
if
we should ever manage
to agree on the solutiona, what are the
chancea that the masseo will allow them
to beputlnto elfecl?
Whatever lhe solutiona, th8ir
success
will depend upon our willlngnets to sacri–
fica tor the common good. The qualllies
of love, faith, trust and compassion will
be taxed lo the limlt. Many of
your
raed·
era
sliH
possess lhese neceasary al–
tributes. but 1 fear that the majorlty of
mankínd does nol
So
me cases In polnt:
(1) Try as they m
ay,
the natlon's
eco–
nomlcs experta can'! cope with inllatlon
because, among other thlngs, the cltl–
zeno are not wtlling to make the sacrlfices
that would be necessary to reversa !he
tlde ot lnflatlon.
regional shortages that could lead to in–
ternatlonal dlsester, but the authors al
1eut
held out the posslblllty lhat a con–
certad unlled elfort of world leaders
could stave off the worst A major feature
ot the study callad for "organic growth"
in the less developed countries and
steady·state populatlon. consumptlon,
and economlc growth in the highly devel–
oped countries.
Thls was seen as an elfort to provlde
greater equlty in th& distribution of
re–
sources, food. and capital among natlons
and lhus to avoid heightenlng lnter–
national tensions.
l>haseThree
The thlrd phase of the study wllllnvolve
a new
wor1d
modet that Incorporales
much more details about lhe lnteractlons
belw8"" varlous sectors of the wor1d
economy. with at leas! flfteen major In·
dustrles representad. Such a model can
provlde decislon makers In business and
government wllh the far-reaching con–
sequencesof their policy decislons.
No doubt even more phases of the
World Problematique will be otudied as
the Club of Rome continuas to think the
unthlnkable, In hopas of soMng the In·
soluble preelicament ofmankind.
O
(2) Hoarding ot commodlties that are in
short suppty reveals a basic lack of
corn–
passion and wllllngness to sacrlfice.
(3)
Ev"" when one's
own
health and
well-belng are involved, self•sacrlflce,
temperance and
loglc
lose
out to lmpa–
tience, aelf-gratiflcatlon: e.g.. cigarette
smoking, drug abuse. premaritaJ and ex–
tramaritaJ sex, and apathy toward seat
belts and harneases in cara.
In summation, we are IMng In
a
soclety
that each day becomes more lncapable
of maklng decislona and accepting cha>–
lenges that could
al
least forestall the
forthcomlng "disconlinulty" ot which
Lester Brown writes.
For decades now, we have heard
peopie wam
us
about reglmentation and
surrender of llbertles whlch could leed us
lo a futura like Orwell'o
1984.
1 find
it
ironie that our unwíllingeas to aurrender
sorne of our llberties could condemn our
chlldren and our grandchildr"" to live in
a futura "civlllzation" whlch would look
upon
1984
as
a
pleuantattematlve.
H. Kelth Langdon,
East L.lverpoot,
OH
In readlng your article In the August
23
Plain TtVIh on ..Two Vlews of the Fu–
tura." you asked for our vlews. and you
gol mine. 1 tend to sway toward the
bad .... l've heard all that good news
before, about how modern and space–
mlnded everythlng was lo be In. gel this,
19751And have lhlngs reelly chenged for
the better? There are still siums, pollu–
lion, hunger. pressures from rlslng
prices, dtVgs, broken homes . . • even
more out-of.proportlon than 25
years
11190.
1
say
that al! the good news predlcted
for man In !he futura
wlll
probably turn
into bad news, for averything man has
done, wlthout God, has ev,.,tually turned
around and backflred In man's lace.
1
really don'! want lo be a
pessimls~
but
1have to lace a real world everyday. For
lila
is real
and
extremely preclous. and
not soma vlslon some man has con–
cocted for hla own saf•keeplng for !he
future ....
Karen H""ard,
lndianapolls, IN
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