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" What makes you think
technology wi/1 so/ve more
serious problems In the
future when
it
has not
eliminated hunger, poverty,
pollution, or so/ved the
energy crisis?"
- Oennls Meadows
"The debate on growth
should be broadened to
include more input from
sociolog/sts, political
scientlsts, and
theologians."
- Jay Forrester
"Fundamental changes in
the internationa/
institutions are a necessity.
To master supranational
problems, we need supra–
natlonal instltut/ons."
- Slcco Mansholt
The earth has a virtual/y
inexhaustlble supply of
raw materia/s and energy
that can be exploited with
exlsting and developing
technology.
- Herman Kahn
LIMITS TO GROWTH
by
Or Oen01s Oretz
H
OUSTON The controversy
aroused by tho publlcation or
Tire Llmíts ro Growtll In t972
by the Club or Romo has re·
sulted Jn a seri•s ot btenmal conferences
on aJternahves to growth Whieh w1U ex–
tend over the next ten years The first of
tl\e
ser'.es
was held Octobef t&-21 at the
Woodlands Conference Center near
Houston, Texas. sponsored by the Club
of Rome.
Unr~ei'Sity
ot
Houston, and
Mrlchell Energy and Oevelopment Corpo–
ratlon. Forty speakers ond panelists. ex·
perts from varlous natlons. assembled to
debate whether physlcal. economlc. so–
c>al. and polilical limita lo growth exist
and whal problams and solutlons are
possible for the futuro
1t
seemed to be the general consensus
of these experts that llm>ts of sorne sort
ex>st and that they are ..readY haVlng a
negallve eHect on our qualoty of hle
KeynoleSpeakera
Conterence program director. Oart·
mou1h ·s Dr. Oennis Meadow&. coauthor
ol the book Llm•ts to Growth, opened the
conference by lntroduclng lhe keynote
speaker. Sicco Mansholl. a tormer preSI·
dent and lounder ot the European Eco–
nom•c Communíty (EEC)
Mansholt. a Outch farmet before World
War
11.
was acti"" as a membef of a Nazi.
res.JStance orgamzauon dur.r-.g lhe war_
Followrng the war. he became a part of
the small group that lormulated the ideas
for an organizatlon
10
brlng aboul eco–
nomrc and politícal unity lor Europe. He
presenlly is active as an advlsor to Euro·
pean teaders.
In hís address. Mansholt &tressed Chal
mankind has never been contronted with
such vast global problema
es
he ls loday.
He added
"11
we are not capable of
bnngmg about '" lhe eomtng 25 years
fundamental changes '" our behavior.
tn
the diStribution of our weallh.
tn
pre–
servmg the ecologtcal balance, and in re-–
storlng nature, catnlrophes are
unavoidabte,..
Manshott pornted further to the need
lor deflnite polltlcal objactlves and ways
8
to ach>eve them, "11 our societies are not
capable ol solv>ng the problems, then
what type ol society do we need?" Oevel·
opment ot lhe European Communlty "ls
lar too slow,"ln his words. "Most disturb·
lng
ls
the absoluta lack of real potrtlcat
leaders wlth vislon to devek>p the means
tor
a
pohcy lhat
ls
answenng the tuture
problems"
In answcw to the quest.on ..Why aren't
we actlng •• we should?" Mansholt ex·
pramed. "F>rsl lhere rs the confhct
be–
tween short-term lnlerests ancllong-term
necessltles, The reahty is that Che gulding
motive lor pollllcal action ls ro wln Che
next electlon to stay in power Relatad to
the power or short-term interest is the
domlnatlng role of the !orces of produc·
tion There has always been and there
still is the
conthct
between
the
md1v1dual
.nterest (enterpnse) and the publ>e >nter·
est (surv>val) Oecosive in the use of aclen·
tifiC
researcn rs proh1 and
JX>Wer."
tn summary he stated that "fundamen–
tal changes fn the i nternabonal In·
stttvttone ore a necessity. To
master
supranotional
probtems. we need
supra·
national lnstítutlons and power. The dís–
crlbution ot world resources, the greater
egallr•
(equallty) between rlch and poor.
and
the preserving
of tiving
condltions
tor
coming
generahOI'IS ean
only
be
assured
by a
new
order. not onty economícat. but
atsopoht>eal- and trme
is
Sllort!"
An
Appeal From Dennls
Meadows
In hls conlerence overvfew, Or Melld·
ows aald. "We used to talk about tho
frontier splrlt and how when things gol a
llttle rough rn lllrnois. people would pack
thelr bags and move out to Nebraska.
There was atways a
new frontier out
there
wh>Ch was
a
llttle excíting.
a titile
unknown. where the resources were
vast,
where the opportunlties were realty
very
Wide 1 lhlnk
we
have that fronher Wllhm
our socrety once again
• We ha.., two
choie<~l'
Eother
we
can sil
back
and
U·
sume the whote process
is
oul of control
let nature take lts course. and
ace<~pt
the
conseQuences, or we can
assume,
as we
have many times In the past. that we can
control our own destiny - that we
have
the onstruments, the wlll, and the potential
todo that.' '
In less formal dlscusslons, Or Mead·
ows,
a
vegetarlan wlth a relat>Vely simple
tole-style, expressed dlsmay at the many
rncongrultles of the Houston conlerence.
While delegates heatedly d>acusse<l en–
ergy conservation, for
1nstance.
massive
air-con<l>lionong unlts gutped
-rgy
In
prod>giOus quantrties
Moreover,
the c:onterence
eenter
•n
wh1Ch
they met was geared more toward
corporate
expense
accounta, of
which
the
$325
entrance lee (tor only three
days) is quHe typlcal.
The ultímate lrony was noted by an·
other "llmits to growth" advocate, Or,
Jay
Forrester of the Massachusetts Instituto
ot Technology As
0r
Forrester put
11.
"Perhaps
the
real evldence of how lar the
(hmits to growth) rdea
has
penetrated our
culture os the fact that you are attend>ng a
hmlts to growth meeting In
(America's
boom town) Houston. Texas...
"Growth lo Good"
Perhaps the most voclterous exponent
ol growth is Herman Kahn. lounding di·
rector of the Hudson Instituto. Kahn has
published many books, lncludlng
Thlngs
to Come and The Yesr 2000. polnt>ng out
lhe
merits
of continued
material
growth
through •ncreased technology
Very
llkety
Kahn
is
correcl In assumlng that the
phys¡cal hmíts to growth are very remole
when one considera the long-range per–
spective. With enough energy from the
sun.
wtnd,
earth
and ocean currents - as
well as nuclear energy and coat lor the
short-range problems -
1t
should be
technologically possibte for man to sotve
hls energy problema. Kahn told hís dis–
agreeing counterparts here
lt
is
precisety thls v•ewpolnt ot connn–
ued physical growtl\ - or the possibmy of
•t -
that
Jay
W Forres-ter warns
is
so
dangerous.
tn answer to the " growth
lo
good
lor
you" Ylewpo.nt
ot
Herman Ktlhn. Forres–
ter sal<!, "The controveray over physícal
llmlts creates the public impresslon that
growth is desirable íl physlcal llmlts can
be overcome. To the extent that physical
hmus are pushed back. or are merety be·
l•eved to be pushed back. the emphasls
on stab lll zlng poputation and con–
sumptlon ls reduced. Rísíng poputatlon
denslty then causes an increase In social
stresses Mlstrust between groups, per·
sonal ahenatfon. dtsresped
tor
govern·
ment. clvU
llrlfe. and mternatlonal
confhct then become
the
uHlmate hmlts to
groWth ..
Forrester feets the debate over physlcal
hmits to growth •• shlft>ng the emphaslsln
the wrong dlrectlon "In public debate
over physlcal hmíts. the deslrablllty ol
technoiOglcal success is seldom ques–
tioned. For exampte. In the present en·
ergy shortage, the lirst questlon should
not be. ·can technology provide unllm–
lted energy?' lnstead we should ask.
·u
unllmltod energy were avaílable. would
we want ít?' To
asl<
tor
unhm>led energy
la
lo favor shlhong the restralnt on growth
from physocel Rm>tS
10
SOCial timds
Unhmlted energy would push pohtk:al
and social ínstltutrons beyond therr ablhty
tomanagell"
New Knowledge Noeded
Forrester calle<! lor more Inpu t to the
llmits debate lrom people ín the social
sciences. pollllceJ sclence. and theology
" The non-pl\yslcal side
ot
man noeds
stronger repreaentatlon," he
said.
In dlscusslng the role of educatoon and
human values.
Lewis
J.
Perelman empha–
sfzed that curlng the ptanel of ecOiogical
Lnsantty
tequ~res
a proces.s of edueation
that does not
now
exisL In his for1hcom..
ing book. The
Global Mind: Beyond
file
Limrts ro Growth. he calls tora new klnd
ol educallon - an ecotoglcal one - that
can help us
solve
crises
and
regalo
con·
trol
ol
our dostlny.
Ancienlly. lhe prophel Hosea wrote.
" My people are destroyed for lack of
knowtedge " He was
spea~ong
of spíntua/
knowledgo - the kind of knowlodge that
can change the human heart. Until such
oducatlon >S ava>lable. the Club ol Rome
summary l$ correct "The real lim•ts to
growth are aoclal. pollticat. and manage–
rial. and tlnally reside wlthin the nature ot
man" (The Club of Romo.
Manklnd
af the
Turnlng Polnf.
p.
204).
o
WEEK ENDING NOVEMBEI\ 22,
1975