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M
AVoice Cries Out:
On Forecasting
the Econom.y
Can you predict the state
ofthe nation's economy?
T
HE FLASH
depression
of 1920 was the sharp
thunderclap prelude be
fore the cloudburst De
pression starting 1929.
A number of my corporate
customers in the farm imple
ment industry went into
receivership. Business activity was
at a satisfactorv level in 1919. At a
noon luncheo� of the Chicago
Association of Commerce that
year a leading economist was our
guest speaker. Rather startlingly,
he predicted the most serious
depression within the generation
inside a year.
In 1920 this same economist
again was our guest speaker at
luncheon in the Cameo Room of
the Morrison Hotel.
"Gentlemen." he said. ·•a year
ago in this room I predicted that
within a year we would be in the
throes of the most serious depres
sion of our generation. Most of you
were not in agreement. That year
has rolled around, I am here again
and the depression is here with
me."
He explained his forecast. "It's
now winter. If I want to know the
temperature in this room now. I
look at the thermometer on the
wall. But if I want to know what
the temperature will be an hour
from now, I look to what's going on
down in the boiler room. I look to
the factor that will determine the
future temperature. A year ago I
did not predict according to
indexes of business activity. bank
clearings, stockcar loadings or
stock market quotations. They
were the thermometers on the
wall. Even graphs and charts of
those things for the past year do
not determine a continuous
trend."
The Boston statistician then
explained his contention that the
HH.allrT
w.
ARM.lrT'1IONG
future economy depends not on
past records, but on the factor
that
determines
conditions-the
way people are dealing with one
another. He expressed the source
that determines conditions in
terms of righteousness. "When 51
percent or more are righteous in
their dealings with one another.
good times are ahead. When 51
percent or more have become
unrighteous in their human con
tacts, we are headed for economic
trouble."
Whether or not this man's
theory found approval in the
business world, it does determine
the nation's general well-being.
And this nation. with the whole
world, is detinitely NOT in a state
of happy and prosperous well
being' We are beset with seeming.
ly insolvable problems. troubles
and evils beyond the grasp of
human mentality'
Repeatedly I have said there is a
CAUSE for everv etfect. The CAUSE
of the evils that beset us is the
"GET" wav of life-the motivation
of self-ce.
nteredness-the wav of
"I love ME-not YOt:
1
" Our posi
tivelv AWESOME progress and
achie;.,ements are all materialistic
in nature. Our evils. before which
we seem to stand helpless, are
spiritual in nature. There is a
SPIRITt l AL LAW that says when we
are all selfishly taking
from
one
another, we all have less. But
when we all produce, and help
others produce in cooperation
instead of hostile competition, we
all have more.
Besides the incentive of "GET"
materially, we seem to want to
find amusement and be enter
tained. All television basically is
entertainment and is leading
minds into the downward drift in
areas of morality. ethics and ways
of peace. We crave the excitement
of modern sports, with the ecstacy
of winning, but the AGONY of
defeat. It seems for some to be
joyous others must suffer agony.
We are breaking the overall
spiritual Law of outflowing LOVE
of "thou shalt love thy neighbor as
thvself."
·our competitive materialistic
progress has for the tirst time in
human history produced the
weapons of mass destruction that
can blast all humanity out of
existence. Our No. l problem now
is human survival. We are in a
world crisis escalating at fast·
increasing momentum toward the
ZERO HOCR of human extinction'
And we're not repenting of our
folly.
.Just before the hand of man
utterly destroys mankind. that
invisible supreme "Strong Hand
from Someplace" is going to
intervene and save us from our
selves' �ankind will be
compelled
to live the wav that will bring
world peace, h,,-ppiness. universal
well-being and eternal salvation. A
wonderful new WORLD TOMORROW
will dawn. It's as certain as the
'''�·5
HERBERT
w.
ARMSTRONG
Pastor General
Worldwide Church of God
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