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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, May 16, 1980
Page 8
ON THE WORLD SCENE
CANADA'S HOUR OF CRISIS: On Tuesday, May 20, voters in Quebec go to the
polls to determine whether or not they want their leaders to take the
first step toward independence of their province--and the splitting up of
a federated Canada. "South of the border"--in the United States--Ameri
cans are generally_ asleep to the crisis.
The news media have left them
in almost total ignorance.
By the time most of you read this, the results will be known. But at the
moment, the "Yes" forces in the referendum fight--those supporting the
rather hazy concept of a "sovereign association" of an independent Quebec
to the rest of Canada--are slightly behind. The race remains too close to
call, however, because of a large segment of undecided voters.
The referendum was called by the ruling separatist-minded party of Quebec,
the Parti Quebecois. Technically the referendum only seeks voter approval
of a mandate for the PQ to enter into a negotiation with federal Canada
over the terms of political independence for Quebec (the sovereign part)
coupled with a common-market style economic link (the association part)
with the remainder of Canada. The PQ promises a second referendum later,
after negotiations, on independence itself.
The cleverly worded referendum has worked to the PQ's advantage in that
the "Qui" (Yes) forces will garner a considerable protest vote--those who
still favor a continued Canadian federation rather than independence, but
want to "shock" Ottawa into realigning Canada into a union more favorable
to Quebec's interests. Of course, diehard PQ separatists will take any
and all Yes votes, regardless of motive.
Leading the "Yes" forces is Quebec Premier Rene Levesque. A former TV
commentator (the one-time "Walter Cronkite" of French Canada), Levesque
knows how to get maximum exposure from the media. Understandably, the
"Yes" forces jumped out to an early advantage in the short five-week
campaign.
The "No" forces stumbled through the first couple of weeks. Their spokes
man is Claude Ryan, head of the Quebec provincial Liberty Party. Ryan
is the exact opposite of Leversque, definitely anti-charismatic. Though
subject to outbursts of anger, Ryan, a former prominent newspaper editor,
has tried to appeal to reason rather than emotion. He and his supporters
have been trying to show how costly independence would be to a sovereign
Quebec (loss of federal transfer payments, much higher cost of oil to name
only two factors). Will reason win out?--or is the pull of nationalism
at-any-cost too strong?
The "No" forces had a built-in disadvantage from the outset. Campaigning
for a negative vote isn't easy. Ryan also has had to try to convince wary
Quebecois that a "No" vote would not mean business-as-usual with Ottawa.
Then too, the "No's" couldn't depend too much on outside "English" help,
lest that be considered "interference." Nevertheless the "No's'' have
apparently closed the gap and then some, over the 35-day battle. They
were helped a few days ago by Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau who
delivered what some considered to be one of his most impassioned speeches
ever in Montreal.