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ern Europe. What these men-"the
elders" referred to by Mr. Joffe–
se~
is hard ly reassuring to contin–
ued peace a nd prospe r ity. for
Europe.
This conservative element is
fearful that Mr. Reagan will now
be unable to close the so-called
"window of vulnerability." This is
that time in thc middle to late
1980s when the Uni ted States is
expected to suffer from a serious
gap in strategic balance
with the Soviet Union.
Duri ng this period,
the Soviets, should they
choose to do so, could
possi b l y succeed i n
launching a nuclear first
str ike aga i nst U.S.
forces without fear of
nation-destroying retal–
iation.
Should this gap oc–
cur, coupled with a
de lay in dep loyi n g
N ATO's new genera–
tion of weapons i n
Wester n Europe- a
likely possibility- all of
Western Europe would
be extremely vulnerable
to Soviet "do it our way
or else" pressure.
to provide protection, then the
answer is simple- someone else
will have to do it!
Germany to Swlng Rlght?
The key nation to watch in
Europe therefore, as the danger–
ous decade of the 1980s unfolds,
is West Germany. Trends in the
Federal Republic often trail those
in t he U .S. by severa! years.
The U.S. swung sharply to the
tained Bonn's booming economy
in high gear.
Since that time, Bonn's sudden
economic downturn coupled with
rising problems with neutralism
and terrorism have made Mr.
Strauss's clear warnings concern–
ing these very trends plausible,
instead of mere scare tactics.
More believable now than al
that time was this statement by
Mr. Strauss, given to author and
international correspon–
dent, Brian Crozier, in
an interview published
in the British news
magazine
Now!
on Feb–
ruary 15, 1980:
"1 believe the attrac–
tiveness of socialistic
s logans , of Utopian
models and inflated
promises, has come to
an end.... We must
not confine our political
programming to prom–
ises of more welfare and
ever rising living stan–
dards. We must rekin–
dle the real values of
life in young people,
and restore a sense of
hi story and historical
responsibility. Material–
ism is not enough."
"Finlandization"–
that process whereby
Western Europe's frce–
dom would
be
inevitably
compromised to dictates
from Moscow- wou Id
no longer be a clumsy
phrase but a grim fact.
Out of sheer fear the
majority of Wes tern
Europeans might choose
" Red" over "dead." Eu–
ropean civilization as we
know it would be slowly
strangled to death.
DEMONSTRA TIONS ERUPTED in cities across Western Europe
in 1981 against plans to upgrade NATO's nuclear weapons. Amer–
ican policy was the main target; Soviet weapons targeted on
Europe were large/y overlooked.
1t
is likely that, fol–
lowing the U.S. exam–
ple, West Germany will
swing to the right polit–
ically in its next parlia–
mentary elections in
1984. (Mr. Strauss may
or may not run again in
that campaign. H e has
already stated that he
would not be avai lable
for the chancellorship
during the remainder of
the 1980-1984 parlia–
mentary session should
There are power fu l
individuals in the topmost echelons
of European politics, finance and
industry who see the big picture
and who are greatly alarmed at the
prospect of Finlandization. Free
Europe's phenomenal economic
success in the post World War
n
period is squarely on the line-and
these power brokers know it.
In their view, if the United
States can no longer be relied upon
December 1981
right in t he November, 1980,
national elections.
Germany, meanwh ile, in its
own parl iamentary elections a
month earlier, stayed to the left.
The electoral challenge of conser–
vative ca ndidate Franz Josef
Strauss was turned back. The
average German voter feared to
Jet loose of incumbent chancellor
Helmut Schmidt, who had main-
the present Socialist-Liberal coal i–
tion collapse. Helmut Kohl, chair–
man of the Christian Democratic
Union, would likely take over if
the conservatives are returned
suddenly to power.)
Coun ter-f o r ce to Russla
"Materialism is not enough" main–
tains Mr. Strauss. Rekindling a
"sense of history" is needed. This
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