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Between the beginning of this decade and the end
ofthis century, less than 20 years from now, world food supply
must almost double! And this must occur on a food
production base that in many areas is rapidly deteriorating
...
rest could easily lead to disrup–
tion of their food as well as indus–
trial production.
New Zealand exports great
quantities of meat and dairy prod–
ucts, but not food grains. The
geographically limited area of
Wes tern Europe also is glutted
witb great surpluses, but they are
high-priced dairy products, not
grains.
United States Secretary of
Agriculture Bob Bergland re–
cently states that if U.S. crop
production were to drop only 1
O
percent during one year , stock–
pi tes would be almost completely
wiped out and food prices would
soar.
Two years of bad harvests in
any of the major grain producing
nations-or one year of bad har–
vests in two or more of such
nations- will cause widespread
famine and grave international
political disorder.
Exploding Population Growth
What an unparalleled dilemma
mankind is in.
We live in a world whose year–
ly net population increase is 75
million. That means every three
years an additional 225 million
(the population of the United
States) must be fed, housed and
supplied with essential amenities
of life.
World population will
triple
in
the lifetime of middle age a nd
older generations of people now
living.
The world did not see its first
billion humans until 1830. The
second billion carne l00 years
later, in 1930. (Many of our
readers or their parents were
alive then.) The third billion
carne just 30 years after that, in
1960. The fou rth billion carne 15
years later, in 1975.
It
is 4.5
bill ion today.
It
will be-unless
Augusl 1980
world war prevents it-five bil–
lion in 1987.
Even though
birthrates
are sig–
nificantly declining in both devel–
oped and developing nations, the
sheer weight of chi1d-bearing age
groups will still push world popu–
lation over 6 billion by the year
2000-bar ring sorne intervening
global catastrophe.
Ninety percent of the earth's
annual population increase is in
food-short developing nations.
More and more of this Aood of
humanity are fleeing poor rural
areas for majar cities. But in–
stead of finding better living
conditions, food and employ–
ment, most end up in appalling
urban poverty
area~.
No longer
are they food producers, but
food consumers.
Staggering Food Demand
Already Here
A shocking food crisis has hap–
pened in the developing world in
the lifetime of many of our read–
ers.
The developing nations of the
world were virtually self-suffi–
cient in food supplies in 1950. By
1970 they had to import 20 mil–
lion tons of food. In 1975, 45
million tons were required. In
1979, they imported nearly 70
million tons.
These nations wi ll have to
import 85 to 100 million tons of
food suppl ies per year by 1985
and 125 to 145 million tons per
year by 1990, say food experts.
This is considering "normal"
weather years.
lt
will be much
more if a period of exceptionally
bad weather years hit these
nations.
Where will they fi nd the mon–
ey to pay for such staggering
imports? Many nations even now
are una ble to a fford to bu y
needed quantities of food. They
have poor foreign exchange re–
serves and little prospect of earn–
ing more. And the transportation .
facilities and networks do not
exist to get such food supplies
quickly to where they may be
needed.
Never in the history of the
world has such a food supply
problem existed! Yet the world as
a whole goes blithely on its
way- totally unaware of the
staggering increase in food pro–
duction that must occur immedi–
ately to give all humanity a
decent leve! of nutrition!
Between the beginning of this
decade and the end of this cen–
tury, less than 20 years from
now, world food supply must
a/most double!
And this must
occur on a food production base
that in many areas is rapidly
deteriorating and decli n ing in
productivity.
The warning flags have long
been flying. Already one billion
humans-one quarter of man–
kind-are significantly or seri–
ously malnourished. Food author–
ities estimated half of that num–
ber- 500 million-are abjectly
poverty-stricken and food fam–
ished, barely surviving. The num–
ber of these hungry mouths grow
even in good weather years.
Drought, political upset or other
agricultura! upsets merely add
more.
Decade of Grace
Even greater mass famines in
much of the world would al ready
be here but for the decade of
grace from mid-1960 to mid-
1970.
The population-food experts
miscalculated-and so did we.
In the early a nd mid-1960s it
was predicted, based on careful–
ly analyzed population-food pro–
duction trends then extant, that
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