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are meteorologists or engineers, for–
merly on the staff of the California
In–
stitute of Technology's meteorology
department.
In 1946, they formed their own prí–
vate organization, making their service
available to cities, states and foreign
countries. They study future water
needs, supplies, weather, and devise
methods of doud seeding - when
douds are available -
so clients
can store the extra rainfall, and thus
be partially prepared when drought
strikes.
The Krick group of scientists pre–
dicted the drought of the 1950's, and
also when it would break, as early as
1946. In 1969, a drought was predicted
to begin in 1971 - which it did. This
drought prediction was carried in a
southwestern farm magazine,
The
Farmer Stockman.
The approximate lo–
cation of the predicted drought was to
be the hea.rt of the former Dust Bowl.
Few paid beed to this predictioo. Sor–
rowfully, thousands of acres of crops in
this region were again ruined. Millions
of dollars were lost.
"Official" Weather Studies
Other meteorologists have speculated
about the recurrence of drought in
cydes. Sunspot cyde charts reveal a pat–
tern recurring approximately every 22
years. This cycle roughly corresponds
with the droughts of the 1930's, the
1950's and the 1970's. But experts say
it's not so simple to calculate drought
cycles.
The official position of the U. S.
National Weather Service, in fact, is
that neither the beginning nor the end
of a drought can be accurately pre–
dicted.
Lack
of understanding of how
the sun's radiation causes atmospheric
changes renders simplified drought cal–
culations inaccurate, or reduces them to
mere guesswork, sorne meteorologists
say.
Currently, a conflict rages between
the "official" govemment position, and
the "educated guess" of other meteor–
ologists.
Even so,
in
localized areas, mete–
orologists have traced weather records
and found recurring droughts in sorne
areas every 20 years or so. These cydes,
and global atmospheric studies are the
The
PLAIN TRUTH
basis of drought forecasting by prívate
weather researchers.
Wbether or not drought can be accu–
rately predicted, there is little question
that up till now there has
been
a
20-year cyclical pattern of drought
throughout parts of the American
Southwest.
Local records give sketcby accounts of
droughts as far back as the 1850's, the
1870's, and the 1890's. In each of
these decades drought struck with
destructive force in parts of the South–
west. Another drought hit again with
less severity after 1910. By far the most
destructive recurrence carne in the
1930's, and the 1950's saw the South–
west dry once again.
1970's- Decade of Drought?
Following such a pattern, drought re–
turned to haunt farmers and ranchers
over a wide swath from central Texas
and southwestern Oklahoma to southern
California during 1971. The approxi–
mate boundaries of the old Dust Bowl
were struck hardest. But Florida and
parts of the midwest were also touched.
Millions of dollars were lost to the
economies of five contiguous states. Ok–
lahoma, New Mexico, Texas, Colorado,
and Kansas were affected mostly along
the bordees wbere aH five states meet.
Arizona also was struck hard.
In
sorne areas, such as New Mexico
and Arizona, winter snows failed in the
mountains. And no rains carne in the
spring to relieve the drought. By mid–
summer these entire states were dis–
astrously affected by drought conditions.
Water had to be hauled in for sorne
local communities. Cattle sought relief
in former watering holes, turned to
mud bogs. Sorne died
in
the mud, or
had to be pulled to safety by copes.
Irrigation water also was short, due to
a lack of stored water in reservoirs.
During June 1971, the Rio Grande
River in New Mexico ran at its lowest
since 1902. Water tables dropped wbile
farmers desperately drilled deeper and
deeper to provide well water for irciga–
tion and livestock.
Pumping costs are rising, and farmers
are worrying about how long the finite
water supply under their property will
last. This sudden widespread and rapid
use of underground water has become
November 1971
THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST
IN 1971
-
1. "Farmland" in
Lamesa, Texas, April 1971.
2. Nearly dry stock tank near
Wichita Falls, Texas, July 1971 .
3. Poverty stricken Oklahoma
town, June 1971. 4. Drought
stricken cotton in Oklahoma, June
1971.
5.
Hard rains in San An–
gelo, Texas, April, 1971. 6. Low
water level at San Angelo, Texas
reservoir, April 1971.
Center
&
upper
right
-
lob
Toyl« Photo
Lower left -
UPI
Photo
AmbosSO<Ior College Photos