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PLAIN TRUTH
November 1971
who has served since 1964 - could be out of office by the
end of this year.
Japanese-U. S. relations have been eroding for severa!
years because of differences over trade, defense agreements,
and return of former possessions, especially Okinawa.
Erosion in the U. S.-Japan alliance was of manageable
proportions until President Nixon made bis surpríse
announcement in mid-July that he would go to Peking to
seek improved relations with the Peoples' Republic of China.
Sato was not advised of this decision until minutes before the
President's announcement.
To the Japanese Government, and especially to Sato per–
sonally, this was a degrading loss of face and rusregard for
Sato's leadership. Part of the lack of communication was
probably due to Washington being miffed over Sato's failure
to obtain more favorable trade agreements, especially in
textiles.
On top of this, Communist China has refused to deal
with Sato or his mainstream party on grounds it is "too mil–
itaristic." The Chinese have expressed a strong fear of re–
vived Japanese militarism and dominance in Asia. This
attitude on China's part - plus Sato's continued support for
Nationalist China - has made it difficult for the Sato Gov–
ernment to achieve any headway toward improving relations
with mainland China.
Many Japanese have long wanted to normalize relations
with Communist China but have been restrained from doing
so for fear of antagonizing the United States, Japan's chief
trading ally as well as her military protector.
But now that President Nixon has suddenly decided to
circumvent consultations with Japan in his dealings with
Peking, there is a growing resentment and suspicion of U. S.
foreign policy in Tokyo. Reported one Japanese official:
"All our suspicions of big-powerism are reawakened.
It
used to be the United States and the Soviet Union deciding
the fate of the wocld. Now it looks as though the United
States and China will decide the fate of Asia."
•
Pipeline to Bypass Suez Canal
Egypt has reportedly begun construction on twin 42-
inch oil pipelines designed to link ports on the Gulf of Suez
and the Mediterranean. The huge 210-mile-long system
would effectively bypass the closed Suez Canal.
Serviced by tankers at both ends, the pipeline, caUed
"Sumed," would cut tanker voyage time to Northwest Europe
by 23 days and to Mediterranean ports by 35 days. This
should make for a substantial savings, of some 20 percent, in
the price of crude oil.
The Sumed line would provide competition for the
Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline already in existence across rival
Israel.
The twin pipelines will have an initial capacity of 80
million tons of crude annually and are expected to yield
Egypt sorne $130 million per year, equivalent to
half
the Suez
Canal's annual tolls. With tbe later addition of pumping sta–
tions, the capacity of the lines is expected to increase to 120
million tons per year. This would amount to well over one
third the amount of oil imported by Europe from the Middle
East in 1970.
The work is being financed by a consortium of govern–
ment and prívate participants from Europe, Japan, the Arab
states and two U. S. oil companies. This is illustrative of the
tremendous significance these governments and companies at–
tach to continua! and unrestricted flow of oil from the
Middle East to the various users.
It
is also indicative of the
fact that many of these participants doubt the possibility of
an accord on the Canal between Egypt and Israel in the near
future.
Most important however, this major pipeline may even–
tually provide Egypt with needed leverage vis-a-vis oil im–
porting Western Europe and even the U. S. in her quest for
what she considers a favorable Middle East settlement.
•
The Eritrean Crisis
Twelve bundred miles south of the Suez Canal, a high–
stakes guerrilla war is raging in Eritrea - Ethiopia's
fourteenth province.
The troubles in Eritrea indicate divisions that may em–
broil other parts of Ethiopia after the reign of the 78-year-old
Emperor, Haile Selassie, ends. Selassie has held this restless,
undeveloped empire together by the force of bis own wíll and
personality. He has maintained Ethiopia as a pro-Western
bastion despite attempted Communist infiltration into the
Middle East and North Africa.
Ever since 1962 when Ethiopia incorporated Eritrea as
the 14th province of the Empire, a move that displeased many
Arabic Eritreans, a radical organization, the Eritrean Liber–
ation Front, has been fighting the Ethiopian army.
The trouble has now reached such proportions that the
Ethiopian government is currently devoting 15,000 of its 40,-
000-man army to the huot for guerrillas in the provioce.
The ELF's announced political goals have beeo identi–
fied with pan-Arab, anti-Zionist aspirations, including the de–
mand that the Red Sea should become an "Arab Lake."
Osman Sabbe, secretary general and chief foreign spokesman
for the ELF, has told American and Arab journalists on sev–
era! occasions: "We are committed toa truly independent and
Arab
Eritrea."
At stake in this struggle is the control of the southern
entrance to the Red Sea. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, only 10
miles wide off the Eritrean coast, controls shipping that is of
vital importance to Europe's industrial needs.
America's last base on the
entire
Africao continent is
also at stake. Tbe army's Kagnew base in Asmara, the capital
of Eritrea, is a $70 million military-communications center
wirh sorne 4,000 servicemen and dependents.
Most daogerous of all could be a possible extension of
the Arab-lsraeli war. Israel offers technical assistance - in–
cluding a police training program - in anti -guerrilla activi–
ties to the Ethiopian government. In contrast, the chief
supporters of the ELF are the Arab countries most hostile to
Israel.