Page 799 - 1970S

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econorntc battle lines as does the West.

On the other hand, memories of Japan's

part in World War 11 and a realization

that "it could happen again" give many

Asían leaders uneasy and mixed emo–

tions concerning their wealthy big

brother.

The fact that she is wealthy presents

more in the way of housing, roads,

transportation and social improvements.

There has been much publicity given to

pollution of Japan's environment.

Burgeoning industry demands more

labor - and the labor supply is run–

ning low. The elderly, once not consid–

ered for employment, are now being

hired in increasing numbers. But there

will come a time, if present trends con–

tinue, when Japan will have to import

employees from other countries to fill

her needs. This she has always hesitated

to do.

Jt

is either import labor or build

her plants in foreign countries. Achiev–

ing the right balance betweeo foreign

investment and domestic production is a

difficult job - but it must be faced.

Will Domestic Tranquility

Continue?

There

has

traditionally

been

haano–

nious cooperation between business,

labor and governmeot in Japan. There

are sorne doubts, however, about how

long this cooperation will continue if

The

PLAIN TRUTH

the labor force becomes too

thin.

Will

labor demand higher wages, shorter

working hours, fringe benefits - and

upset the fine competitive edge of low

cost goods that Japan now enjoys?

lt

has happened in all industrialized

nations. Will it happen in Japan?

This is a very real problem Japanese

planners are facing. In other words,

Japan is facing the same serious eco–

nomic problems that all successful

nations ultimately experience.

Just what can and must Japan do to

protect her future economic interests?

Relations with the United States

could continue to deteriorate. Japan's

natural market is Asia, and she is sup–

planting the U. S. as the area's leading

trading partner.

If

the

U.

S. continues

to lose ground in that area and attempts

to restrict domestic imports from Japan,

both nations could face strained rela–

tions analogous to those faced in the

late 1930's which led up to and ended

in the terror of World War

11.

Japan has eojoyed almost continuous

prosperity for

25

years. Her people with

their recent prosperity have been buying

much of Japan's output. But now there

is coming a period of slowdown as the

domestic market becomes saturated.

Her real state of economic growth,

though still awesome percentage-wise,

has

been

gradually declining since 1968

and her industries are beginning to feel

the pinch. Sorne companies have had to

cut back on production this year because

of the decrease in domestic sales and

sales resistance in the

U.

S. Certainly

Japan will not meekly continue to cut

back her production. Japan is a surging

force and will aggressively continue to

expand as much as she possibly can.

Accord With Soviets Critical

Japan must consider the real presence

of the Soviet Union. This factor be–

comes increasingly critical as U. S. and

British power in Asia diminishes. To

defend her interests abroad, Japan will

have to establish sorne relationships

with Russia - the power which has

gained naval preeminence in the !odian

Ocean. Complete freedom for Japao's

huge tanker

fleet

sailing the lndian

Ocean, transporting Middle Eastern oil,

is an absolute must for Japanese

industry.

August 1971

If

Russia wanted, she could sorne

day cut off this vitally critical fue!

life-Iine at certain "choke points" such

as the Strait of.Orning between the Per–

sian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Japan

would then have to rapidly expand her

naval Self-Defense Force to meet the

challenge,

oc focge

sorne agreement

with Moscow.

Considering such factors, don't rule

out possible future economic ties

between Russia and Japan and even

China.

In

any case, sorne Japanese officials

are already spelling out the politics of a

new type of Co-prosperity Sphere.

Recently, Japan's Vice-Minister for For–

eign Affairs, Haruki Mori, made clear

that Japan is at a turning point in her

foreign policy.

Said one correspondent: "A recent

interview with ... Mr. Haruk:i Mori has

attracted sorne interest bere as having

for the first time spelled out the concept

of Japan as the focal power within an

emerging Pacific bloc of Nations."

Japan envisions a Pacific Common

Market - a sort of United States of the

Pacific with obvious overtones of Asia

for the Asians. But even without the So–

viet Union or China, an Asían Co–

prosperity Sphere - perhaps including

India and Indonesia - would have tre–

mendous economic and

military

power.

What

Does

the

Future

Hold?

With the complex interrelated factors

which determine política! alignment

cootinually altering, it is difficult to

know what specific eveots may occur.

But in general we can know that

Japan will play a leading role in tbe

future of Asia. Much depends on the

United States. If America can put her

economic and moral house in order she

can continue to be a major stabilizing

force in Asia. But

if

relations cootinue

to deteriorate between Japan and the

U. S. - and if the

U.

S. disappears

from the política! and military scene of

Asia - a precarious vacuum will occur

in the Pacific.

Japan, as Asia's leading economic

power - and possibly

military

as well

- will

be forced to take action. This

action by necessity will focus on keep–

ing the Pacific area stable economically

and politically. O