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18
The
PLAIN TRUTH
July
1971
the U. S. Weather Bureau. Tannehill was an expert in
drought conditions.
Are we again in a dry cycle - to culminate in such a
"great drought'' ? Conditions under way now do indicate such
a probability for the 1970's - a possible repetitíon of the
dry cycles in the 1930's and 1950's. Only this time, the
dryness is compounded by the specter of a disastrous corn
blight and low reserves of key commodities. In addition,
sorne experts believe the land in America's vast farm belt has
never fully recovered from past droughts.
Parts of the U. S. Southwest already are in serious
condition. PLAIN TRUTH staff members report from West
Texas:
"After one of the driest winters on record, farmers and
city dwellers in West Texas are facing a critica! water short–
age. Despite one spring downpour, reservoirs are very Jow,
because there has been no runoff water to feed them. The
water table
is
continuing to drop. And windstorms have
whipped dust across the dry, barren fields, many times low–
ering visibility to zero.
"Severa! West Texas counties have been dedared dis–
aster areas and federal aid has been promised. But money from
Washington is not going
to
bring relief farmers need.
"Old-timers fear the trend may indicate the beginning of
another long cycle of drought. These cycles have occurred in
West Texas about every 20 years since 1890, and many feel
each drought has successively been more severe. The first six
months of this drought were more severe than the beginning
stages of the record-breaking drought of the early 1950's."
•
Europe
11
0ver a Barrel
11
-
Of Oil
Ten years ago oil accounted for one-third of Western
Europe's total energy needs. Today the figure is almost two–
thirds. And oil consumption is growing at
12
percent a year.
This is three times the consumption rate ten years ago. Pre–
dictions, notoriously short-sighted, say that Europe's need for
oil will double by 1980.
A frantic worldwide search for untapped sources of
crude oil has failed to alter European dependence on the
Middle East. New natural gas fields in the North Sea and the
Netherlands plus increased Nigerian and Indonesian oil pro–
duction will only help to offset burgeoning requirements.
Europe's dependence on Arab oil became obvious late
last year when a rapid increase in consumption, along with
closure of both the Suez Canal and the Trans-Arabian pipe–
line, combined to create a fuel shortage in Europe. Also, by
the end of 1970 oil freight cates from the Persian Gulf to
Europe were
six
times what they were in early 1967.
Recently a consortium of oil-producing countries de–
manded - and got - a hefty price increase for their strate–
gic commodity. There
is
also the threat·.of the powerful Soviet
influence in the Middle East and its increasing naval power
in the Indian Ocean.
Any serious disruption in the vital flow of Middle East
oc
North African "black gold" would devastate the European
economy. Western Europe alone depends on the volatile
Middle East and North Africa for 85 percent of its oil needs.
For oil-vulnerable Europeans, the questions in the
1970's will be: Will Middle East and North African oil flow
unimpeded to fuel their industrial economy? And,
if
not,
what drastic steps will a resurgent Europe be forced to take to
keep vital oil flowing?
lt should be remembered that Europe's military, as well
as her industry, runs on Arab oil. As the Center for Strategic
and International Studies at Georgetown University recently
reported, Middle East oil "must always be considered of
prime strategic importance, aod denial of this supply of oil in
times of emergency or war would have a strategic implication
of profound consequence."
A greater European awareness of its dependence on the
Middle East and the vulnerability of the flow of oil has been
created over the last year. New calls for Europe to assume a
greater role in the Middle East, including the peaceful settle–
ment of the Arab-Israeli confrontation, have been generated .
Europe, and particularly the Common Market, is certain to
increase its involvement in the area.
•
Population Explosion
-In
Ships
A recent spate of ship collisions in the English Channel
has underlined a new problem on the world's waterways.
A recent meeting of the International Chamber of Ship–
ping - representing most of the world's tonnage - was
held in London to tackle the gwwing "ship-population prob–
lem," in the English Chaonel. The Channel is now the bus–
iest strait in the world and is rapidly becoming a graveyard
for shipping. Nautical pile-ups currently average three a
week.
Two factors lie at the root of this problem - one, the
vast increase in world trade by sea, the other, the greater
size of today's vessels. World trade is growing at an ever–
increasing rate - presently about 8 percent each year. Around
99 percent of international bulk trade travels by sea. The gross
tonnage of shipping has tripled worldwide between 1960 and
1969 to meet this need. And Europe is the kingpin area of
increased trade.
Yet the number of ships has not increased proportion–
ately. The trend instead is to ships of greater size to meet
the necessities of trade.
This has created unexpected problems. Sorne large tank·
ers - for example a 200,000 tonner drawing over 60 feet of
water - are allowed to sail through waters giving only
three
feet
of clearance under the keel. This is like maneuvering a
rowing boat with only an inch of water to spare. Sorne tank–
ers touch bottom, others are caught on treacherous sandbanks.
Sorne experienced pilots and navigators are suggesting a
sort of naval highway patrol with a two-way routing system
imposed for the Straits of Dover. The patrol would have the
power of arrest and the authority to levy heavy fines on of–
fenders. This could come only by a co-operation of European
states - especially Britain, France and Germany.