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With the foregoing as a back–
ground, the following is a brief coun–
try-by-country rundown of the dete–
riorating situation, highlighting the
perilous drift toward anti-Western,
pro-Soviet sentiment among nations
in the lndian Ocean and Persian Gulf
regions.
Catalog of Crises
In
lran,
the violent street demonstra–
tions which have wracked that nation
since early last year have finally
forced its embattled leader, Shah
Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, into vir–
tmil exile, leaving the nation's future
in the hands of competing political
forces. For the moment, a civilian
government under Premier Shahpour
Bakhtiar holds power. But it has yet
to survive the uncertain weeks and
months which will inevitably follow
the Shah's departure.
. The ultimate arbiter of power in
Iran is still the armed forces. Despite
denials by top generals, rumors per–
sist that the military might yet seize
control in a coup.
The Bakhtiar government could
also be swept aside by religious oppo–
sition. From his headquarters outside
París, exiled Moslem leader Ayatol–
lah Ruhollah Khomaini-the main
infiuence behind the mass anti-Shah
movement and rallying center for the
cause- has appointed an " lslamic
revolutionary council" to prepare the
way for a new constitution declaring
predominately Moslem lran an "ls–
lamic republic," to be headed by
himself upon return from exile. Ob–
servers see such a regime as being ra–
dically reactionary and xenophobic
in character.
Khomaini has branded the Shah's
departure as a trick and the Bakhtiar
government as illegal. Should Kho–
maini succeed in his bid for power ,
many analysts fear serious conse–
quences for the United States. Kho–
maini is known to harbor strong anti–
American sentiments because of
Washington's support for the Shah.
What happens in l ran is of critica)
importance to the West for a variety
of reasons. As the world's second
largest exporter of oi l after Saudi
Arabia, l ran has supplied some
eight percent of U. S. import needs
and a far greater percentage to
the economies of Japan, Western
6
Europe, Israel and South Africa.
Equally important is lran's geo–
graphical position. To the north it
shares a 1,500-mile border with the
Soviet Union. To the south lran acts
as a "policeman" of the vital sea–
lanes over which most l ranian, Per–
sian Gulf and Saudi Arabian oil
fiows to the West. After Great Brit–
ain withdrew her military forces east
of Suez in the late 1960s, the Shah
stepped into the vacuum to become
the "gendarme" of the Persian Gulf
on behalf of the West. Both the
Bakhtiar government and the Kho–
maini faction stress that Iran will not
continue playing this role, but will
pursue an independent course in for–
eign policy.
~~
Whichever faction wins
in the end in Iran, it is
strictly a no-win situa-
tion for the Western
world. And for t.hat very
reason the
U.
S. S.
R.
stands to gain a victory.
' '
In view of these obvious strategic
considerations, many analysts detect
a Soviet hand, to one degree or an–
other, behind 1ran 's recent turmoil.
The well-organized strikes by oil–
field workers, it is felt, could not have
been carried off without Communist
direction, or at least heavy involve–
ment. Whichever faction wins in the
end in Iran, it is strictly a no-win sit–
uation for the Western world. And
for that very reason the U.S.S.R.
stands to gain a victory.
In
Ajghanistan,
despite denials by
that country's Ieaders, the leftist mil–
itary government which seized power
Iast April in a bloody revolution has
turned the country into a virtual So–
viet satellite. Currently calling the
shots in that remote but strategically
important Moslem nation of 14 mil–
lion is President Nur Mohammed
Taraki, secretary general of the rul-
ing People's Democratic Party. In an
attempt to assuage conservative
Moslems, Taraki refuses to call his
government Marxist (though few
doubt that is its true orientation) and
officially claims to be nonaligned .
The facts , however, speak for
themselves. Last December Afghan–
istan and Moscow signed a 20-year
"peace and friendship" pact, with
military aspects, further tightening
links between the two countries
which share a 1,000-mile border. The
current number of Soviet advisers in
the country- nearly 5,000- is more
than double what it was before the
coup. Moreover, since last April the
Kremlin has supplied 60 T-62 tanks
and 20 MiG fighters to the Afghan
government in Kabul.
Sorne analysts believe Afghanistan
is now being used by the Soviets as a
base to promote trouble among eth–
nic minorities in neighboring l ran
and Pakistan, including stirring up
the long-simmering independence
movement among the Baluchi tribes–
men of western Pakistan. Should
Russian- and Afghan-backed Balu–
chis succeed in carving an indepen–
dent "Baluchistan" out of Pakistan,
Russia could acquire the warm-water
port on the Arabian Sea which it has
sought since the days of the czars.
Pak istan on Edge of Violence
In
Pakistan,
a military government is
in power, but shakily. At the mo–
ment, everything seems to revolve
around the person of deposed Prime
Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who
has spent much of the past year bat–
tling illness behind bars and fighting
for his life in court. Pakistan's rulers
have threatened to execute Bhutto,
who still enjoys wide support. A rul–
ing from the Supreme Court of Paki–
stan is expected in the near future on
his appeal against a death sentence
for charges including murder. In the
event the Supreme Court confirms
Bhutto's death sentence, tensions
could explode into massive violence,
with unpredictable consequences.
In the meantime, the current gov–
ernment is worried over the shift of
neighboring Afghanistan into the So–
viet camp and Washington's apathet–
ic, ho-hum reaction to it. America 's
(Continued on page 42)
The PLAIN TRUTH March 1979