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hundreds of Cuban troops are re–
portedly now stationed in Ethiopia.
Soviet Tightrope
Aside from its Marxist orientation ,
Ethiopia has another strong reason
for edging into the Soviet camp. lts
eastern neighbor, Somalia- ruled by
a leftist military regime under Gen–
era l Mohamed Siad Barre- has
stepped up its
1
7-year-old guerrilla
campaign of "liberation" in the
Ogaden Province of Ethiopia, a
desert area peopled essentially by
Somali nomads. While a longtime
adversary of Ethiopia, Somalia is
also a long-standing Soviet ally in
the region. The Ethiopian junta is
hoping tha t the Kremlin might be
able to exert its influence to res train
the Somalis in their war of "libera–
tion." Somali insurgents have a l–
ready taken over a substantial
portian ofOgaden Province.
All thís places the Soviets in a
tricky position in their push for
power in the Horn. The Kremlin
would like to see sorne sort of re–
gional Marxíst federation- a "pax
Sovietica"-created in the area ,
comprising the currently feuding
nations of Ethiopia and Somalia,
a long with South Yemen and newly
independent Afars and Issas. A look
at the map on the previous page
quickly explains the Soviet ratio–
na le. Such a bloc would contribute
greatly toward Soviet control over
the Bab el Mandeb, the narrow
strait whích connects the Gulf of
Aden with the Red Sea. Oil traffic
from the Persian Gulf through the
Suez Canal to Western Europe and
the Uni ted States must pass through
that strait. Strategists see control
over those slüpping lanes as the
main objective of the Russians.
But to acquire this strategic
sphere of infiuence, the Kremlin
must somehow engineer a truce be–
tween the contending Somalis and
Ethiopians, whi le consolidating its
position in both client countries.
The Soviet leadership is well aware
that the centuries-old anímosity be–
tween the two peoples will not be
easily overcome. Cuban Premier Fi–
del Castro was apparently assigned
the task of feeling out the possibility
of an accord between the two foes
during bis African tour earlier this
year, but the idea was reportedly
10
ETHIOPIA
'S
Marxist dictator,
Lt.
Col.
Mengistu Haile Mariam.
given a cool reception in the Somali
capital of Mogadishu. Not helping
matters was the stony silence Fidel
received from his Somali audience
when he urged them to give " three
cheers for our Marxist brothers
across the border." He quickly dis–
covered "Marxist solidarity" has its
limits.
Moreover, Somali relations with
the Soviets are cooling in proportion
to the Soviet warming to Ethiopia.
As tbe hítherto leading Soviet client
state in east Africa, Somalia is be–
ginning to feel betrayed by the So–
viets' growing friendliness with its
bitter rival. The Soviet move into
Ethiopia may thus turn out to have
been a grave miscalculation on the
part of the Kremlin, and could ulti–
mately threaten the Soviet foothold
in the Hom by jeopardizing the im–
portant Soviet ai r, naval and missi le
facilities at the Somali port of Ber–
bera near the entrance to the Red
Sea. Somalia's 1,700-mile coastline
on the Gulf of Aden and the India n
Ocean is a juicy strategic plum
which the Kremlin would be loath
to lose. Ethiopia does not offer a
similar strategic location.
Reports from Mogadishu say the
antagonized Somalis a re now seri–
ously reexamining Soviet military
rights in their country as they
closely monitor Soviet moves in
Ethiopia.
In addition to their dispute over
Ogaden Province, Ethiopia and So–
malia are also at odds over So–
malia's backing of secessionist
guerrillas in Eritrea, Ethiopia's Red
Sea province.
Eritrean Conflict
The protracted and bloody war in
Eritrea is esca lating, and one-half of
Ethiopia's 45,000-man army is cur–
rently tied down there, a t a cost of
sorne $250,000 a day. The guerrilla
armies of the three loosely a llied
Eritrean independence move–
ments- the 20,000-man Eritrean
Liberation Front (ELF ), the 15,000-
man Eritrean People's Liberation
Forces (EPLF), and the 5,000-man
Er itrean Liberation Front-Popu lar
Liberation Forces (ELF-PLF)- are
proving to be formidable focs
against Ethiopian forces, and are re–
portedly nearing a military victory.
Eritrea was an ltalian colony
from the la te nineteenth century un–
ti! the Italians were defeated by the
British in Ethiopia in 1941 . Brita in
administered the province until
1952, at which time the U.N. ap–
proved its federation with Ethiopia.
The terms of the federation gave
Eritrea considerable local auton–
omy, including its own elected par–
liament. But in 1962, Ethiopia
announced the end of federation
and absorbed Eritrea as its 14th
province. That move touched off the
secessionist rebellion which has
been seething for the past 15 years.
Eritrean guerrillas totally reject
the Ethiopian government's offer of
limited autonomy within the Ethio–
pian state. For its part, the Ethio–
pian government totaJly rejects the
notion of independence for Eritrea,
as it would mean the loss of Ethio–
pia's entire 500-mile coastli ne.
These uncompromising positions
leave little hope for a peaceful set–
tlement.
The Soviets a re weU aware that a
Jandlocked Ethiopia would beoflitt le
use to their designs, and are pouring
in aid to assist in putting down the
Eritrean rebe llion. Countersupport
for the E ritreans is being provided by
Egypt, the Sudan, Syria, and Saudi
Arabia, in addition to Somalia.
lt
is a
desperate battle with far-reaching
implications. Neither side can afford
to lose it.
There is still another point of con-
The
PLAIN TAUTH August-September 1977