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As the Northern F leet - the So–
viet Union's largest - burgeons in
size. Russian naval commanders
must look covetously a t Norway's
Atl.antic coastline indented with
deep-wa ter, ice-free fjords. No rway
would be hard-pressed to defend
the region againsl Sov iet intrusion.
With only 1,500 border gua rds and
a mo torized brigade of 5,000 sta–
tioned 500 kilometers away, there
would be little hope of olfering
much resistance to the 50,000 Soviet
troops stationed over the border.
Norwegia n a nd Soviet sens i–
Liv ities a re a lso very touchy where
their in terests conftict hundreds of
miles away on the island of Spits–
bergen in the Svalba rd archipelago.
Although Norwegian sovereign ty
was conceded in a 40-nation treaty
signed in 1920, a ll s igna tory na tions
(including the Sovie t Union) have
mineral rights o n the bleak, treeless
isla nd.
Bo th Norwegia ns and Russians
are mining fo r coa !, though the Rus–
sia ns have twice as many men and
produce less coa
l.
This toge ther with
such swipes a t Norwegian sover–
eignty as refusing to li cense their
radio tra nsmitters, ftying their own
helicopters wi thout Norwegian ti–
cense pla tes, using Soviet stamps,
and refusing to pay laxes have led
Norwegian offi cia ls to presume the
Russ ians are try ing to wrest control
o f the island or a t least establish
th e msel ves a s t he m aJO r co n–
dominium power.
Russ ian in terest in the islands is
understandab le. Although no mili–
tary bases a re allowed on th e is–
la nds, th e arch ipelago líes in a
strategic position which cou ld moni –
tor intercontinental missiles taking
the sho rtest route between the So–
vie t Union and the United States
across the Arctic Ocean. The islands
also líe a t a key surve ill a nce poi n t
for the naval traffic
in
the Arct ic
Ocean and a round the port of Mur–
mansk.
The shift to Warsaw Pact superi–
ority along the no rthern European
front will no doubt become more
important as time goes on.
" It
won' t
remain t he quiet comer of the Al–
li a nce ," sa id Gene ra l Sir Jo hn
Sharp recently. He predicted that
the north would come to the fore in
the nex t ten yea rs. O
The
PLAIN TRUTH December 1976
THE NEXT
EMBARGO
After the o il embargo of 1973-74,
President Nixon, with much fanfare ,
launched " Proj ect Independence,"
an amalgam o f government a nd prí–
va te e tfo rts to make the United
States less dependen! on Arab oil.
Today, however, the U.S. is more
dependent than ever on Arab oi l,
and th at dependence is growing.
This vulnerab ility has come abou t
largely because of Ame rica's fa ilure
to achieve any significant reduction
in energy consumpti on, or even in
the yearly rate of increase in energy
consumption.
Th e extent of America's reliance
on impo rted oil can be illustrated by
these facts: Total demand for oi l in
the U.S. has reached the stagge ring
figure of 17.4 million barreis a day.
But domestically, th e U.S. has been
producing less than 10.2 million
barreis a day, and that figure is
steadily skidding downward. It is off
more than 13% from its 1970 peak.
This means about 7.2 million bar–
reis a day must be imported.
At the same time, dema nd is in–
creasing to the point where the
American Petroleum 1ns titu te pre–
di cts that imports will go up to
eight
mil/ion
barreis a day in 1977. In the
wo rds of John H. Lichtbla u of New
Yo rk's Petroleum Research Foun–
da t ion: "Our vulnerability to an
embargo increases every day."
And not on ly is the U.S. impo rt–
ing more o il, but more of t hat o il is
coming from po tenti a lly vulnerable
sources. America 's long- time steady
su ppliers, Canada and Venezuela,
are now supplying proportionately
less of America's o il - Ca nada , be–
cause it has decided
to
curtai l all o il
export s; Venezuela , beca use it
wants to conserve its oil and raise
the price.
T he net elfect is tha t th e eco–
nomic positioo o f the U.S. - and
the whole industriali zed world , for
that matter - remains extremely
preca rious. London 's 1nsti tu te of
Strategic Studi es has repea tedly
warned that should another Middle
East wa r erupt, any ensuing oi1 em–
bargo by the Arab states wo uld lead
to "economic ruin" for the West.
The las t embargo cost th e U.S.
a lone over $20 bill ion in lost G NP
~nd
sorne 500,000 jobs. Current con–
gressiona1 estima res conclude that a
six-month embargo would now cost
a t 1eas t $55 billion and mo re th an
1.5 million j obs. Treasury Secretary
WiUiam Simon says that the U.S. is
simply not ready to withstand a n–
other embargo, which would make
the last one seem "like a picnic.' '
So rne experts a lready have a clea r
idea o f how th e U.S. would respond
if Arab o il states ever resort to an
embargo aga in. Says Lichtbl a u :
"You could cut 2.5 mill ion barre is a
day o f gasoline demand by elimi–
na ting nonessen tial driving. You
cou ld cut 10% to 15% ofour heat ing
oil consumption and a no ther 15%
from elect ric utiliti es . You could
curtail airline travel. But yÓu'd have
massive unemployment, gaso1ine
stations shutting down by the thou–
sa nds, mote1s and resorts and eve ry–
thing that goes with it. ... You
[would] crea te a disas trous reces–
sion ."
Commerce Secreta ry Ellio t Rich–
ardson sounds even gloomier. He
says the results of another emba rgo
"could be literally catastrophic."
Under the worst poss ible circum–
stances - such as if there were com–
pa rat ively little oi1 stored in the U.S.
when the embargo began - the
GN P loss could soa r
to
an annua l
ra te of $ 170 billion, and up
to
4.8
millionjobs could be lost.
Richardson has sa id tha t such a
ha rsh impact in terms of jobs and
economic growth might force a fran–
tic search for a " prompt in te r–
nationa l so1ution."
"Some, no doubt," adds Richard–
son, "would argue fo r abandonment
o f our t raditional s upport for the
sta te of Israel. Others would de–
mand forceful intervention aga inst
th e Arabs. Either course of action
could fundamentally destabilize the
interna ti onal balance of power and
threa ten ultimately to invo lve th e
United Sta tes in a major military
struggle."
Despite the near to ta l apathy wi th
wh ich the American public has re–
ceived the various warnings a bout
the country's vulnerabi1ity to an–
other emba rgo, the fact still rema ins
that the U.S. is importing more o il
tha n eve r, and more o f that comes
from Lhe volatile Mideas t.
o
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