Page 2910 - 1970S

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Science
Rediscovers Sin x
l>y Ron Horswell
lf wc are 10 survive the futufe, we
may bave to "tediscover sin.n Tbat's lhe
way economist·flllurist Kennelh Bould–
ing pul it atlast summer's convention of
lhe World Fu!Ute Sociely. Allhougb
Hollywood hasn't yetla!Cbed on 10 itas
a motion pi~ure tille, we seem 10 be
living in lhe ~oay of lhe Prophel," a
time wben gloomy Jeremiahs and
Isaiahs once again roam lhe earlh ex–
posing sins that society has forgotlen.
Tbe Modem Prophets
Our laUer-day propheL< are not feed–
ing on loeus!S aod wild boney, and lhey
are clad in d~rate degrees ralher Iban
c:amel skins and lealhem loinelolhs.
Tbeir message is lhat lhe future wiU be
5baped more by mt)rolity Iban by mira·
eles of teehnology. To phrase lhat more
suocinctly and old-fashionedly, "sin"
can undermine even lhe most optimistic
forecast. Tbe implication is lhat we can
only ensure an enjoyable tomorrow by
facing sorne bard decisions today.
Twenty, 6fteen, or even ten years ago
we would sc:arcely have 10\erated such
spoilers casting rigbteous aspersions oo
our golden c:aJf of progrcss. Bact lhen
our oniclcs were ofa dilfercnt caste. The
message from most ever¡ Delphi was
aystal clear - aomehow an incredible,
unsiOppable, divine chain reaction of
technic:al and scicntiftc progress bad
been detonated. No matter where you
lived, be it Brooklyn. Bombay, Beirut, or
Bangkok, it was only a mauer of time
before your neigbborhood would be 6g–
uratively in lhe suburbs of Disneyland.
lt wasn't a questioo ofmorali1y or ethics.
lt was a simple matter of ltnowing lhe
rigbt equations and subscribing to lhe
rigbt joumals.
Tberc was. 10 be sure, one da&. cloud
even in !hose beadier days: lhe commu–
nist menace with lhe aecompanying
lhreat of 6rst atomic and tben nuclear
war. But tbat dose of pessimism was
dilferent from the prophetic messages
we hear tnday. Tbe Red lbreat wU per–
ceived as an evil force against wbicb we
in lhe white ha!S must stand 6nn. 1t
didn't take a prophet 10 point out lhe
sins ofaomeone else.
Mirarles ... Olseoatiaully
In lhe J950s and 60s, "miracles'' was
probably the most utilized word in lhe
prognosticator's vocabulary. A typical
forecast went something lllte Ibis ooe
from l9SS: "A brigbt, exciting future,
fuU of opportunities. You wiU be living
much bener Iban you do oow. Get your
mind adjusted 10 miracles, coming fast."
Wbelher we got our minds adjusted or
oot., tbe qmiracles" did come fasL Here,
just to iUustrate, are sorne of lhe more
ofteo made forecasiS of lhe late 50s and
earty 60s:
• Electric power produced from
atoms.
• Long·di$tance telepbone direct dial–
ing.
12
• Air conditioning in almost all new
homes.
• Televisioo transmittal acrOS$ oceans.
• Space travel probably even to lhe
mooo.
We felt we were operating oo a con–
ti.ouum of ooe tedlnological miracle af–
ter aonlher, and lhe futurc was surc 10
be more of lhe same. lf lhat prognostica–
tioo philosopby had cootinued un–
changed, we would by oow all ftnnly
believe that within lhe lifetimes of most
of us, tbis old orb would be scarcely
distinguishable from eveo tbe most
imaginativo view ofbeaven.
In reality, bowever, tbe majority
today has abandooed bor.' of aoy tech–
oologica.lly induced beatiftc visions Ibis
side of deatb. Ralher Iban faotastic tales
of a perpetual fiesta (sobered only by
lhe possibility lhat tbc communists
migbt rain oo our party), wc now feel
quite sure tbat we ourselves bave over–
indulged at our own banquet. We fore–
casted beadily aod then made our own
forecuts come true. We taste'd aU
brands of progress - regular, 1\Jter láog.
menlhol, aod extnl long - and now we
have c:ancer.
In lhe voclbulary of today's propbet.
lhe key wotd "miracles" has beco re–
plaoed by ~discontinuity." A typical
forecast goes somelhing like Ibis one
taken from an essay wrillen by Lester
Brown for last summer's World Futurc
Society conveotioo. Brown sees ahead
"... a shifl away from bistorically accel–
erati.ng growth, a shifl in political power
from industrial countries 10 raw materi–
als suppliers, and sbifls in emphasis
from ecooomic growtb to distribution,
from supply expansioo 10 demand con-·
servatioo. aod in intemational trade,
from access 10 madr.ets to access 10 SUP:
pUes." All of Ibis pla= us, in Browo's
opinion, on "!he verge of one of tbe
greater discontinuities in human his–
tory"; l.e.. lhe age ofmiracles is over.
The impact lhat lhc specter or dis–
continuities- malees on our lhinlting is
enormous. In lhc 50s aod 60s, wheo we
expanded lhen-present trends, lhe emer–
geot future seemed quite desirable. As a
result. wc werc basicaUy satisfted wilh
our rocietal institutions, be lhey govem–
meotal, economie, or whatever. lo lhe
70s, when wc expaod preseot trcnds, lhe
futuro takes on a sinister bue. Tbe result
is that wc questioo all our established
institutions. Sucb questioning contrib–
utes furlhcr 10 lhe general instability
that already seems to comprise too
much oflhe future.
Tbe Approaclaiac Day ol
Dlseootillllily
The essence of lhe disoontinuily con–
cept as preached by lhe oew propbe!S is
lhat our present coune of civilizatioo
has inhereol wilhin it a day of recton–
ing. Unless we "repent," lhere is coming
upon us lhe great and terrible Day of
the Lord in lhe fo!JD of temperature
inversions, assorted ecologi<:al mega-dis–
asters, traumatic termi.nation of
economic growth, and violent red.is–
tribution ofwealth.
Our modero seers have revived a pro–
pbetic tradition that goes baclt a long
way, aU lhe way bact, in fael, 10 lhe
days of Jsaiab, Jeremiah and Ezekicl.
"Discontinuity" is an old concept gjven
a ocw name. Jeremiah referred to it as
follows: "Alas! that day is so great lherc
is none ll\te it; h is a time or distress for
Jacob ..." (Jer. 30:7, RSV).
Daniel called it "a time of trouble,
sucb as oever has been since lhere was a
natioo tiU that time ..." (Dan. 12:1,
RSV). Jesus Cbrist propbesied tbat
"lhere will be grcat tribulation, silch as
has oot beco from tbe beginning of lhe
world until now, no, and never will be"
(Matt. 24:21, RSV).
In our modero age, at least until re–
cendy, we oeglected lhe messages of lhe
biblical prophe!S. We considered lheir
words too t.ncient oc too dillicuiL But as
evidenoed by lhe recent wave of1nterest
in lhe Bible (aod especiaDy in propb–
ecy), we have come 10 reaJiu that we
sautiniud too critica.Uy.
lt is ceruioly true that we may not
ltnow what every passage sucb as "the
"Repent end tum lrom ell your tren•–
gretllon•, /etl lnlqulty be your
ruin ••.• gel yourtMifet a newheatf
and • - tplrlll"- EHklM 18:30, 31, RS V
eartb shaU reel 10 and fro" or "!he sun
5baU be turned ÍDIO darltness" may
mean, if indoed lhey are anything more
Iban spiey doses of poetic lioense. But
lhe esseotial message of the aocient
propbel$ is ~lear. They proclaimed lhat
mao's moral and elhical actions were
lhe lteys 10 bis future. Tbey wamed meo
to redúco~r sin, or tbe future would
come crasbing dowo. Aod as our mod·
ero world is rediscovering. that message
is as valid as ever.
Confli5ÚII Doom Wllh Gloom
Our lauer prophe!S, lilte lhe former,
bave beeo ca!Jed doomsdayers, ao ap–
peUatioo wbich most of lhem dislilte and
rigbtfuUy so. Altbough lheir woids seem
pessimistic to our miracle-accustomed
ears, their essential message is not oocof
pessimism but rather one of chaoge, not
technical change but chaoges in human
character. lnstead of seeing lhe quality
of lhe futurc beingdepeodeot oo wbat is
technologicaUy possible, lhese prognos–
ticators see it as dependen! on what is
human/y possible.
SpeaJ?ng at lhe V{orld Future Society
cooveouon, Jay Porrcster, the MIT pro–
fessor whose research in systems dynam–
ics laid lhe foundatioo for lhe famous
Um/ts lo Growth Study, said he feels a
major presentatioo error of tbe Umlu
research bas been i!S emphasis on pbysi–
c:al limitatioos (i.e~ populatioo. rcsoun:e
supplies, etc.) ralher Iban on lhe social
and political consttaints lhat malte lhe
necessary chaoges difficult if not nearly
impossible.
l,tislng Expeclatlons
Until rece.otly most of our major in–
stitutions have cast a blind eye in Ibis
direction. We have said, for example,
lhat science aod technology are neutral
However, lbe avowed neutrality of lhe
internal combustion engine doesn't clear
lhe smog from Tolcyo or Los At~geles.
Tbeoretical impartiality of nuclear phys–
ica doeso't preveot an arm• race.
Now our etbical expectations are
chaoging. Tbe emergence of ecology as
a prominent braocb of science is sigoiJi–
cant, for ecology has beeo called the first
ethical scienoe. l t cooceros itself not only
wilh what can be done but also wilh
wbat should be done. h eotaüs oot only
laws but also WJ/uu, values wbose in–
ftueoce is gradllally permeating rociety.
To cite ooe prteedent-setting instance,
lhe blocting of lhe SST in lhe Uoited
Sta tes was lhe first time in Westem tech–
oological bistory lhat a project of such
magnitude was baltc!d in advaoce on eo–
vironmeotal consideratioos.
In the fteld of ecooom.ics, botb domes–
tic and intemational, lhere is oow great
besitation to dogmatically state lhat tra–
ditional economic lheories can ade–
quately deal witb all tbe moral
rcsponsibilities prcseoted by poverty
and extreme disparities ofweallh.
Businesses large aod smaU are coming
10 realiz.e that lhey can only continue to
exist if lhey rcspond to demands from
lhe public lhat are entirely ncw in na–
ture. Péople are coming to demand not
only goods and services from business
but also ethic:al standards pertaining to
lhe environmenl, 10 hiriog aod promo–
tioo policies, aod to political con- .
nections. (To lhe consteroatioo of
businessmen, lhe cbange in psychology
is far from complete as iUustrated by lhe
fa~ lhat !he public dcmand for morality
does not yct oversbadow iL< demand for
more miracles.)
Too Uttle, Too Late?
So tbcre has been sorne change. Val–
ues have been altered. Pra~tices rc–
vamped. lnstitutions restructured. How
much more change and how drastic it
sbould be are mauers of diSpute. But
ooe lhing is clear. Much more 1\rnda–
mental cbanges wiU be rcquired if man–
lr.ind is to avoid bis propbesied
GotterdiJmmerung.
In this rega.rd as weU, lhe modero
prophets are followiog in the sandal
tracts of the aocieots, allhougb on Ibis
theme of cbanges in human character,
lhe ancieo!S were far ahead in bolh uo–
derstanding and eloquenoe of presenta–
tion.. Ao imperative transformatioo or
!he human heart is amoog lhe most con–
sistently present and thorougbly devel–
oped lhemes of tbe Old Testameot
propheL<. Joel said : "Rend your hearts"
(Joel 2: 13). From Elekiel: "Repent and
tum from aU your transgressions, test
iniquity be your ruin... . and get your–
selves a oew heart and a new spirit!"
(E.zek. 18:30, 31, RSV.) Also Jeremiab:
"Tum now, ever¡ one of you, from bis
evil way and wrong doio~ ...n (Jer.
2S:S,RSV).
Tbe tenor of lhe modem prophe!S is
set: Tbe future wiU be shaped more by
morality Iban by miracles. Jf we fail to
establisb and act upon adequate moral
and elhic:al staodards, tbeo tbe future
will not be brigbL Or, as the ancient
propheL< would have put it: Surely your
sins shaU find you out. O
FEBRUARY 1976