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IIL
liT...
by
Robert Ginskey
A fourth essenllal has been added to
the ege-old necessftfes of lite.
Be–
sfdes food, clothfng, and shelter,
.we
must
ha11e energy.
In the 30 years since World War
11.
we Americans have used more energy
tban all our forefathers combined.
We've invested
it
in many grandiosc
projects. The American highway system,
for example, is 75,000 miles long, con–
nectlng every city in the nation. It's the
largest mao-made object in the world -
larger than the pyram'ids, the great wall
of China and the Parthenon all roUed
intoone.
Early Americans found a wilderness
rich in wood, coal, aod oil. And they
uscd it to make machines, which made
more machines, whicb made more -
un–
til
today less tlian 1% of our work is
done by human musclc;. In a sense,
everythiog was made possible because
energy was available in great plenty.
Encrgy has made us amuent and
freed us from drudgery. The only
lfouble is we're running out of the oil
and
gas that have become the
mainslá
y
of our energy supply. And therein lies
one of the most potentially devastating
problems ever to face the American
people.
10
The Energy "lnconvenience"
On October 17, 1973. most of the oil–
producing countries of the Mideast
placed an embargo on oil shipments.
Tne shock waves from this action
reached around the world and were fol–
lowed by economic and social disruption
in most of the industrialized nations.
The valves were reopened in March
1974, and oil began to flow again. But
the world was no longcr the same. The
embargo
was
an exclamation point - a
dramatic dividing fine between the past
era of cheap energy and the era of ex·
pensive energy into which we have en–
tered.
Before the traumatic embargo of
1973, thc U.S. was expected to use more
energy in the period 1970 to 1982 than il
- did throughoul all of its entire previous
history. lndeed, even after the embargo
and under the most optimistic circum–
stances, 11ie Energy Research and Devel–
opmenl Administration (ERDA) s1ill
expected U.S. energy consumption to
r~ughly
dguble during the nex1 25 years..
lf
no new initialives are laken
10
de–
velop alternative sources or conserve en–
ergy, the ERDA estimates consumption
might rise. by 150 percent. A previous
estímate by the Federal Power Commis-
sion had forecast energy consumption
lripling by the year 2000.
One study asserts that America will
need to build. a new power plant every
25 days for the nex1 20 years if our
energy consumption is not controUed.
Yet, energy authority Frank Murray be–
lieves that even this estünate may be too
conservative (see accompanying inter–
view).
The fact is tbat the developed West–
em world, especially the United States,
has been on an energy-guzzling binge of
unprecedented proportions for over 30
years. The U.S. has 6% of 1he earth's
population, bu1 uses
3>5%
of all the .en–
ergy consumed in the· world. Mo5t of
that energy comes from fossil fuels. In
fact, petroleum fuels accoúnt for 75% of
U.S. energy consumption. Last year
Americans burned up sorne 25 billion
cubic feet of natural gas and 6.3 billion
barreis ofoil.
ls
Ene rgy lndependence Possiblé
Experts say it will be exlfemely diffi–
cult, if not impossible, lo become totally
energy independent. The U.S. imports
36% of.the oil il uses, while the proven
reserves in
th~
U.&. bave been steadily
declining since 197
t.
Every day, the U.S.
consumes sorne 17 million barreis of oil,
but daily domestic production is only
about 9 million barreis. And the gap is
1
not narrowing; it's widening.
lncreasing scarcity al home is under-
-sco.r:ed-by the..fact that )>etroleurn.
pr-o·
ducers have been sinking more boles
into American soil than a! any time
since the mid-1960s; yet
v~ry
liule new
oil is being discovered. Last year the
number of wells drilled in the U.S. rose
15% above the 1973 level to 32.000, but
the nation produced 7% fewer barreis
per day (8.4 million) than the year be–
rore. In the first quarter of 1975, 8,568
wells were dtilled, 22% more than dur–
ing the same quarter of 1974; yet, pro–
duction has shown only a miniscule rise.
Actually. oil companies have had less
money to spend for dtilling since Con–
gress eliminated most of their depletion
allowance, causing their profits lo drop.
Exxon, for example, reporte<! a 34.4%
decline in net protit from the secood
quarter of 1975, compared with 1974.
Tbe plain lfuth is that there may just
not be much oil lefi in the continental
U.S.. at least not in amounts large
enough
10
justify an aiL-out drilling drive
in the search for oil. The U.S. Geologi–
cal Survey reccntly cut in half its esti·
mate of recoverable oil lefi in 1he U.S.,
setting the figure at 82 biiUon barreis.
Oil from 1he Alaskan pipeline may feed
America's demands for a few years -
but then what?
Otfshore oil otfers sorne potential, but
even there disappointments have oc–
curred. The Destin Anticline off the
coast of Florida looked so lucrative tha¡
oil companies bid
a
record
S
1.49 billion
for leases on i,t. But,
af~er
drilling 14 dry
boles, Exxon: Shell, and thtee other pro–
ducers puUed out their rigs.
TheGa.sGap
The U.S.
is
also facing a looming
sbortage of n¡uutal gas, the leading e,n–
ergy source afler oil. Natural gas pro–
vides fuel for an es\imated
60%
of U.S. ·
industry,
55%
of
aH
American homes
and about 33% of the nation's total eo–
ergy consumption. Shortage of natural
gas threatens to become America's num–
ber one worry.
The Federal Power Commission pre–
dicts that in the year ending next April
1, gas s.hortages will cut 45% deeper than
in
the previous 12 mon1hs. This will give
rise to a serious crisis this winter, even if
weather is only normally cold. lt could
mean devastating loss of jobs and clos–
ing of plants, seriously atfecting the
economy. The economic recovery we all
. hope for may very well be nipped in the
bud dueto increasing energy shortages.
Now,
a,s
winter
is
beginning, the Fed–
eral Energy Adminislfation
is
saying
that the nation's network of intj:rstate
gas pipelines will be 1.3 trillion cubic
feet shor't of the 9 trillion cubic feet
needed for the winter. Large shortages,
ranging up to 30%. are forecast for por–
tions of 'the· mid-Atlantic coast from
South Carolina to New York.
Sooner or later. the U.S. will run out
of oil and natural gas, even if prices
quintuple and consumption levels off.
Despite this, the U.S. continues to use
imported oil at near pre-embargo levels.
The U.S. now imports 26%ofitsoil from
Arab countries, up from 16% in tate
1974. With 80% of the free world's oil
underlying the OPEC nations, the ·U.S.
is now more dependen! lhan ever on
Arilb oil, and more vulnerable to an
Arab (OPEC) embargo than in O<:!ober
1973.
The
Hidden Energy Crisis
Our dependence on oil and natural
gas for heating and transporlation is
alarmingly acute. Bu1 oil and gas are not
used only as fuel; they are also used in
maldng a myriad of pelCOChemicals and
plastics which directly alfect our daily
li.ves. Literally lhousands of products -
including carpets. paints, pesticides, fer–
tilizers, drugs, and synthetic fibers -
come directly from petroleum. Such
products are ofien virtually unobtain-
able without pelfochemicals.
.
Since oil and gas are absolutely essen–
tial for so many importan! products, a
new and ofien overlooked dimension is
added to the energy crisis. lf we con–
tinue
10
squander precious petroleum by
using it as a common fue], we will lose
more rilan ao energy source. We will
also be unable to manufacture the
countless by-products made from oil
and gas. They simply will no longer be
available, and the repercus-sions
throughout our economy and in our life–
style may well be calamitous.
Energy Policy?
Yet, U.S. energy policy is stymied by
endless wrangling between Congress
and the White House. We've witnessed a
potentially d.isaslrous year-long confticl
between the Ford Administratioo and
the Oemocratic Congress over energy
policy. The lack o( leadership is appal–
ting.
As 1976 approaches and our energy
supplies become increasingly uncertain,
the need for sound and effective lead–
ership has never been greater.
Our
Energy Options
In
the
tiña!
analysis, the U .S. and other
industrialized nations face three choices :
WEEK ENDINO DE<;EMBER 6;
1975