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RETHIIIKIIIG
THE
UIITHIIIKABLE
by
Robert Glnskey
Total nuclear war, aecording
10
con–
ventional wisdom. would be a suicodal
exercise in international irresponsibility.
In short, nuclear war
is
unthinlcable. The
conc:ept ofthe Balance ofTerror and the
policy of Mutually Assured Oestruction
are based on such unthinlcability.
But now comes a reevaluation by a
National Academy of Scienc:e study that
seemingly concludes lhatthe impact of a
nuclear bolocaust on nations other than
those directly hit by lhe bombs would
not be
so
catastrophic as commonly
thought.
The report - entitled
Long-Tum
Worldwide Effecu of Multiple Nuclear
WeapoiiS
Detonations
-
concludes
ralher optimisticaUy that lhe h.uman
species apparcntly could survive
a
nu–
clear e.xchange equivalen! to
10
billlon
10ns of
TNT.
Tbat explosive power is
about half the total nuclear megaton–
nage of both che U.S. and the U.S.S.R.
Acxording to Academy Presiden!
Pbilip Handler, the study predicts the
worldwide ell'ccts of sucb an "uni–
maginable bolocaust" would
~be
lcss
prolonged and less severe than many
had feared."
Y
et
tbe very optimism of thc report
has caused a storm of controversy. The
Federation of American Scientists ha$
publicly denounced the study for en·
couraging the irratiooal
use
of nuclear
weapons through
a
"Strangelovian
sce–
nario,.
in
which nuclear war is seeo as a
viable method of achieving national
purposes. Tbe U.S. Arrns Control and
Disarmament Agency, which had con–
tracted for tbe
$56.000
stu~y.
was so
dismayed al the tone of tbe report tbat it
issued a statement asserting that no ag–
gressor nat.ion could launch a nuclear
war without sull'ering economic aod
eco–
logical devastation.
Actually. tbe report contains sufficient
information on the ell'eccs of a large–
scale nuclear war to dete(' aU but the
most nihilistie of nuclear nucs. lf all-out
nuclear war oc:eurred, tbe report con–
eludes th.ere would be many serious con–
sequences, induding:
• Widesl?read, high-level tadíoactive
contaminauon, especiaUy in th.e Nortb–
em Hemisphere,
• A reduction of tbc earth's ozone
!ayer by about
50%
for th.ree yea11,
• Sunbums in
10
minutes,
• A
10%
increase
in
slcin canc:er for
about
40
yea11,
• A significant reduction in agricul·
tural production.
• A possible dramatic alteration in •
ctimate and
~lobaltemperatures.
The priocople oew coocept developed
m
the report is that the major predicted ·
long-term ell'ects of nuclear war would
not rcsult from the dispersiorl of radio–
active materials, bue rather would be lhe
result of an increase
i!t
ultraviolet radi–
ation due 10
a
reduction in the earth's
ozone !ayer. This conclusion should
serve as an additional deterrent to che
use of nuclear weapoos.
lndeed, tbe original
p~
of tbe
academy's report was to 6nd out
whether certain catastrophic hazards
from nuclear
war
migbt have
so
far
es–
caped ootic:e. The potencial dangers
from tbe destruction of the ozone
Jayer
were just th.e kind of new hazards they
were loolcing for.
·
But the tragedy
is
that in retbinlcing
tbe unthinkable, such
fu¡din~
have
par·
tially been obscured by comforting
claims that future generations would be
subject to only "minjmal stress"
a
decade or soafter
a
nudearwar.
The report may
~
correct in its
asser·
tion that manldnd would survive an
a1J.
out nuclear nightrnare, but the horror of
such a h.olocaust
can
hardly be overem–
phasized.
o
AFunny Thing Happened
On theWay toArmageddon
by Jett
Calklna
Baelc in the mid-sixtics, sorne of us
(confession: me too) didn't 11\inlc Amer·
lea would make
it
lhis far. i.c.. witbln
months or being able to consummate
our 200tb birthday. Tbc vision . in
1968
was one of accclerating disintegration
amidst an orgiastic display of violence
and moral
rot
reminiscent of the tase
days ofPompeü.
In that fateful year, two leading
Americans were usassinated wichio two
monlhs; tbere were riots at tbe Demo–
cratic Conventioo in Chicago, plus racial
riocs in more major citics than ever be–
rore.
R~ia
invaded Czecboslovatia.
Dangerous drogs and "hippics" were a
shocldngiy new phenomenon; and crime
rose
17
pe=nt. the woat ever.
The United Sta
tes
is
still
here - and
WEEK ENOING NOVEMBER
22,
191S
so
is the violenc:e and decay - but every
once in a while it
is
good to remind
ounelves that even tbe most
gloomy
prognósis can fail.
le
is not inevitable
tbat che United S tates collapse.
Tbe experienc:e of the ancient Assy–
rÍan city-stale of Nineveh sets the opti·
mistic preceden!. Nineveh was tbe
destioation God had in mind for lhe
prophet Jopah, who was instructed
10
warn Nineveh of its impending doom.
Al tirst, Jonah tried to Oce from bis
assigoment. but after spending 72 hours
inside a whale (or "great
6sb,~
or what–
ever), be got thé divine bint and even·
tually descended upon tbe ancient
Assyrian capital witb the proclamation:
"Y
et forty days, and Nineveh shaU be
overthrown~
(Jonah 3:4).
Ptease sencf me a copy of q;.e I)OOkk!t
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And then a funny thing happened.
The city
too1c
him
seriously. They ac–
tually
rtpentedl
"So the people ofNine–
veh believed God, and proclaimed a
fast, and put on saclccloth, from the
greatest of tbem even 10 lhe least of
them" (Jonah
3:5).
Tbe lcing of Nineveb, even without
the modem custom of interminable
prayer brealcfasts, iniliated che repen–
taoce.
His legislation specified that man
and beast "be covered witb saclcclotb,
aod
ery
mightily unto God: yea, let
them turn every one from his evil way.
and from the violenc:e tbat
is
in thcir
hands. Wbo can tcll ifGod wUitum and
repent. and tum away from bis tierce
anger, that we perish not?" (Jonab 3:8-
9.)
Tbe SIOry has a deservcdly happy
ending. "And God saw their worlcs, that
thcy tumed from their evil way; and
God repented of tbe evil, that he had
said that be would do uoto them; and be
did it not" (Jonah 3:
10).
God, of course,
is
no more inclined to
desire tbe downfaU of modern-day
America than be did tbe downfall of
ancient Assyria. The prerequisite is the
nec:essity for a similar nationwide moral
revolution.
Sucb
a
revolution entails
a
willingness.
to caU certain practic:es evil. lt might be
termed in academic circles as tbe "resto–
ration of tbe concept of
sin."
This radi·
cal idea would storm tbe stodgy bastions
o( irnmorality: wbole entertainmeot em·
pires might sull'er, and tome thcologians
migbt eveo be constrained to stop
emasculatíng every clear moral directive
they have the personal mi.sfortuoe to
stumble across in tbe Bible.
Given today's jaded moral cl.imate,
1he e.xperience could be' exhilarating.
Honesty would come baelc in style. The
streets might be safe for people to walk
in at night - witbout a pollee escort.
Families would experieoce the Cresh,
new benefits which come from staying
together.
'fhere
is,
aner
aJ1.
hopel
The moral
revolution of the Ninevites just may be
tbe historical preceden! upon which
America can base ber bicentennial -
and trlcentennial.
. lt's a solution worth prayiog for.
O
11
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