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Agonizing
Reappraisal
forArabs
by
Norman Couslna
an interim one - bas con–
frontcd the Arab peoples wilh
the need for an agonizing reap-
praisal.
•
No doubt, a large number of
Arabs would like
10
see the
Egyptian
pea~
with Israel col–
lapse. But the Egyptian people
themselves harbor no such pref–
erence. Egypt needs peace.
' Food shortages are acute. .Tbe
Most of the attention given to public transponation system is
the lsraeli-Egyptian
a~rd
has brea.k.ing down. The country
been direc:ted to the terms of faces
a
massive problem in
the agreemeot engineered by bousing. lnllation and un–
Secretary of State Henry Kiss- employment
are
producing
social
inger. Of equal ímponance has _and politieal unrest. The last
been the eff'ect of tbe pact on tlúng in the. world Presiden!
tbe
po~tics
of tbe Arab world.
Sadat needs is war or eveo the
Tbe biggest change of all is necd to deal with foreign ten–
tbe psycholog¡cal one. Before sions.
lhe lsraeli-Egyptian agreement
Anotber psychological
was concludcd, there was vir- cbange that has come about as
tually a uoited froni inside the a resuh of the Egyptian-lsraeli
Arab world against any recogoi- signing has todo witb Arab atti–
tioo of Israel as a state.
In
the tudes toward the Palestioe
Lib–
very act of sigrung an' acéord eration Organiution (PLO).
with Israel, however, Egypt has When Palestinian terrorists
accepted lsrael's rigbt to máke werc carrying out thei.r acts of
commitments as a nation. This violeoce against IsraeL the per–
does not consutute formal reo- petrators were not widely ooo·
ognition, to be sure, but recog- demned inside ll)e Arab world.
_oj(ion is implicd and the long- But now that the Palestinian
term implications have pro- terrorists have turned their vio–
duccd
,sbock
waves througbout lence against Egypt, the uoited
the Arab world. Thc fact that froot of public Optnioo favor·
the leading Arab naüon would able
10
the PLO has beco bro–
seek to be at peace wilb Israel -
keo.
even thougb the agreement is
While this sbifl is notlikely
10
SPaln
Braces
(Conrlnued from page 3)
tion-ftlled speecb before a
cheering mass rally assemblcd
in front of the Royal Palace on
October 1 - the
39th
anniver–
sary of his assumption of power.
Franco blamed Spain's troubles
oo a Mleft-wing Masooic con–
spiracy"' abroad and Mcommu–
nist·terrorist subversion" at
home. He also assailed "cena in •
corrupt countries" for criticizing
lús
goveroment
Unur1aln
Future
The recent intemational con·
demnation of Spain, most ana· ·
lysts agree, has served to unite
the couotry to sorne degree be–
hind thc Franco govemment -
wit.h the exception, of course, of
the nation's
750.000
Basques.
But unrest is still brewiog in
broad segmenLS of Spanish
so–
ciety, including tbe business
and professional communities,
lb
e church, and elements of the
military
wbo
want 10 see mean–
in8ful reform in the country.
In the shon run iotemational
tongue laslúng and growing
guerrilla violence will undoubt–
edly prompt 82-year-óld Franco
10
ttghrtn
bis yip on the coun–
try. This could spark funher ter–
rorist defiance and even greater
proresslonal and institutional
dissatisfaction, in lhe
assess–
ment ofmost observers.
4
Many Spaniards are looking
to Franco's designated heir.
37-
year-old Juan Ca.rlos de Borbon
- the grandson of Spain's· last
king - to lift tbe repression
wben he assumes power in
a
restored monarchy following ·
Franco's death
or,
less likely,
resigoation. Juan Carlos is said
10 favor gradual
~beralizatioo
and the opeoing of political
participation to all buttbe com–
rouoist pany. Spain
is
preseotly
a one-party state.
Sorne fear. bowever, that the
young king will be unable to
control the coalition of powerful
right-wing groups wbicb bave
run Spain for nearly four
decades.
Will Spain follow in the foot–
steps of Ponugal, which was
thrown into political chaos
when her authoritarian regi.roe
was
ovenhrown? WiU extremist
faetions on tbe left and tbe rigbl
mut
in
a head-on clash?
Will
lhe armed forccs assume a ma–
jor role
as
they bave in Ponu·
gal?
lt
bad once beco hoped lhat
when Fraflco departed the
scene,
a
peacefultransitioo to
a
democ::ra tlc system aod accom·
paoying interoational accep–
tance would be seco. But the
longer a cbange in the
"reign
in
Spain"
is
delaycd
1
the more un·
likely it is that it
wiU
come with·
out sutfering for Spaniards and
problems for all of Europe.
o
atrec:t Arab support for a sepa–
rate Pale$tiniao state, the dis–
sension inside the ranks of the
PLO itself is bound to increase
uoder outside pressu.re.
A new equilibrium is in lhe
making in the Mjddle
East.
lf
Henry Kissinger can follow up
bis sua:ess betwun Egypt and
l$rael wilh an agreement on
military disengagement in the
G'olan Heigbts, he may have
the momentum he needs to go
alltheway.
Wbat pan would the Geneva
cooference play in such a com–
prehensive settlement? From
the start, it has been clear that
not until all the panies got
around the sarne table llo'Ould it
be possible to fit aU the pieces
into place. But
it
also
see.ms
likely tbatthe function of a Ge–
neva conferenée would be to ra–
tilY
an agreement rather than
10
negotiate one.
So
lhe argumeot
over a step-by-step approAch
vs.
the conference approach
has
been a false issue. Tbe best
chance of success for a Geneva
conference is
10
bave an agenda
with sorne agreements that
can
serve as a scaff'olding for a
structure ofpeace.
This is the Kissinger strategy.
lt
was
a
long sbot to begin with,
but the odds are cbanging very
fast.
ArabAnns
(Contlnued from page
3)
aod the Anglo-Freoch Adour
engine powering lhe Hawk.
A, repon in a daily paper
in
Beirut announced that anñs–
production priorities had been
decided upon. Top priority
would be given 10 tbe manufac–
ture of figbter and figbter–
bomber aircraft. Second carne
the assembly of electrooic
equipmeot, thirdly anti·aircraft
and anti-tank guidcd missiles.
and fioally tanks and armored
vehicles.
In
addition to the studies
sub–
milted by Britisb aircraft manu–
factu.rers.the Beirut paper stated
lhat cooperation off'ers had
also
been receivcd from Dassault, the
makers of the Mirage, and
Thomson-CSF aod Plessey, re–
spec:tively French and Britisb
elec:tronics maoiifacturers.
Tbe Arabs, aod the Egyptians
panicularly, appear
10
be taking
AOMA very seriously - per–
haps proddcd by the example of
lsrael's burgeoning homemade
arros iodustry wbich recently
unveiled its first fighter plane, a
hybrid derived from the Mirage
equipped with a Phaotom
en–
gine. But eveo
if
the implemen–
tation of the plan does proceed
as
expe~ted,
il
wlll requirc
French and BJitisb blessing
be–
rore it gets anywhere.
o
-
Adll
Mu/ltadi
by
Gene H. Hogberg
NATO: Who Needs lt?
LENINGRAD, U.S.S.R.: The sleek, three-mssted vessel an–
chored here in tbe harbor of tl¡e "Annapolisn of the Soviet Union
carries a message by its vcry presence.
lt's
the training ship of the
Portuguese navy - a navy wbich, o o paper at least, is still a pan of
NATO.
Spokesmen for Ponugal's leftist Armed Forces Movement -
instigators and protectors of Por tugal's
1914
·"flower revolution" -
claim that their nation is still commillcd to the Westem aUiance.
But lhe Soviet and Ponuguese flags flying <:oUiy side-by-6ide in
Leningrad harbor, along with the casual ambience between the
bearded, scraggly-baircd Poi'luguese midsbipmen and their
crew–
cutted Soviet counterparts suggestthat Ponugal's AFM leaders are
a!so looking elsewbere for "sailiog iostructions.n
Portugal is only ooe example
9f
NATO's slumping state of
aff'airs. Tbe c:urreot economic slowdown in lhe West - referred
10
in Moscow as the "crisis in capitalism" - is partly responsible for
the situation. Sorne say an excuse.
.
Holbnd, for example. is planning serious defense cuts whtch
NATO Secretary-General Josepb Luns, a former Dutéh E'oreigo
Minister, wams could set
a
dangerous preceden! for olher NAJ'O
countries and jeopardize Western security, in view of the contin–
ually growing streogtb ofthe Warsaw Pact forces.
HoUand's Socialist-led government. igooring picas from its
military advisers, is planoing to cut from
15
10
2 the number of
Neptuoe maritime rcoonnaissance planes in its sea patrol fleet and
10
scrap its naval flagship.
a
guided-missile crujser,
-
Netherlands' Defense Minister Henk Vredeliog defends the
cuts, statiog that tbey are unavoidable because
of
tbe state of tbe
Dutch eoooomy and lhe need to inject funds in10 other sc:etors to
comba! unemployment. Mr. Luns - noting that the cuts will save
only 90 million dollars - describes tlie reductions
as
completely
unjustificd and ooly "the tip of an iceberg" of similar planned
eoooomies expected to be proposed not only in the Netberlands but
in otber NATO states.
Tbe debate over defense commitments also occupies Parlia–
menl's timt in Britain, the most irnponant European NATO mem·
ber after West Germany. Once again, a socialist govemment. with
heavy radical-Ioft ioftuence,
is.
exerung pressure 10 trim back Brit–
ain's defense posture still funher. Spending on the military is down
to
10%
ofgovemment expenditu.re,as opposed
10
17%in
1960.
Now the British Ministry of Defense
is
cuuing previously
plaoned spending by
S1.4
billioo by the end of the next fiscal yea.r,
by over
S4
biUion by March
1980
and by about
S10
billion by the
end of
1984.
(Meanwhile, outlays for social services - health,
education, social security -
wiU
continue
10
rise.)
As
a result, the Royal Navy
wiU
lose balf of its amphtbious
force and 14% of its warships; funds for the Army will drop
30%;
and the
RAP
wiU
lose one-fourth of its long-range maritime recon–
naissance aircrafl, one-fourth of its suppon heUcopters and fully
50%
ofits tixed wing 1ranspon force.
Ma.k.ing malters worse is lhat, with inllation, the shrinking
allocaüoos for defense buy less aod less. A destroyer, for example,
today costs three times as mucb as in
1950,
a light anti-aircraft
weapons system
eight
times as much.
It
would be nice
if
defense cuts were being made on lhe "other
SJde• too.
h
would be wonderful
if
dtteote truly meant
a
lessentng
of tensiont. But repeated statements in the Soviet press make it
clear that the ideological struggle against "pluralist democracies" is
as viable
as
ever.
Britatn's Field Marshall Sir M10bael Carver admits the
diffi–
culty of ta.k.iog defense seriously in the climate of détcnte. But it's
most imponant, be says, that people understand that "you can only
atlbrd
a
¡x¡licy
of dttcme wilh peoplc whose ideologies are totaUy
opposed to one's own, from a position ofstreogth."
Not everyone in NATO, apparently, is getting tbe rnC$–
sage. O
WEEK ENDINO NOVEMBER 1, 1915