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VIE\NS OF THE FUTURE
Nobody knows exactly what the f u ture w i ll
bri ng, but most people have an opinion . At the
second general assembly o f the World Future Society
in Washington, O.C.. June 2-5 . futurist Herman
Kahn, founding director of the Hudson lnstitute,
presentad two characterisl ic (and largely opposing)
view s on the fulure. Kahn asked those of us el
the fulurist conference 10 indicete t hé vi ewpoinl
w i l h which w e would most closely egree.
l n terest ingly. t he response w es about equally
div ided between the two scenarios. Below
THE BAO NEWS:
" LIMITS TO GROWTH"
The Basic Model
Foxed Pie: We have a faorly good idea of what thos world can provode.
Therefore. " the fonote poe' · and ' the fixed bowl are good metaphors.
particularly on thonkong about non-renewable or hmoted resources We
must share more fairly the lomited supploes and room of " spaceshop
earth. "
T e chnology and Capital
Oimin ishing Returns · New technology and addi to onal capital investmen t.
necessary to extract margonal resources. will vastly oncrease pollut ion -
probably to lethallevels - and markedly accelerate the approaching
exhausto n of resources
Resources
Rapod Depletoon· Manos rapidly depleting the earth ·s food. energy and
mineral resources. and even running out of space for gettong rid of
polluuon products. Many key resources woll soon be seroously depleted .
Current Growth
Uncontrolled Exponen toa! and/or Cancerous Growth. Even if the curren!
level of population and production could be sustaoned indefinotely,
current exponentoal growth on both populatoon and productoon woll
accelerate dramatocally the approaching exhaustoon of resources and of
our aboloty
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cope woth pollutoon
lnnovation and Ois covery
A Trap: New doscoveroes of resources. new technologoes.
and
new
projects may postpone the immediate need for drasuc actoons. but not lor
long. Such postponomcnt will make the eventual collapse more severo
and possibly oven earlicr
Indus trial Development
A Disaster Funher ondustroalization of the Thord Wor1d would be
dosastrous. and fu rther growth of the developed world evenworse
Therefore, the roch should halt their industroal grawth and share theor
present wealth with the poor
Ouality of Life
Growth vs . Oualoty of loto· Continued economoc or population growth
means further dotorioratoon of environmen t, destruction of ecology.
particularly of marshos and wilderness. overcrowding . suburban sprawl .
anda society suotable for automobiles. trucks and aorplanes but not for
human beings
Long-Range Outlook
The Current Emergency ls Total . Unless revoluuonary changes are soon
made. the 21st century will see the greatest catastrophe sonce the black
death. large-scalo damage os a plague to the envoronment and to the
ecologyof many areas. Bollions will die of hunger. pollutoon and / or wars
over shrinkong resources. Other billions woll have
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be held down by
harsh authoritaroan govcrnments. The crisis is grave and some draconian
measures may be justified now to al leviate the exten t and intensi ty of the
future collapse
WEEK E.'IDING AUGUST 23. 197S
is a shortened adap1a1ion of Kahn' s original
present.alion. The left slde contains the " bad news,"
e rether pessimist ic neo-Malthusian appraisal
of man' s future. On the right side is the more
optimistic " post-Industrial society" as viewed by
many .
Pla~n
Truth
invites our readers to consider
bo th columns. and, i f you ' re so inclined,
let us know why you favor one and not the other.
W e'll d iscuss you r responses in a reader's forum,
and we' ll further enalyza t hese visions of t he
fu t ura in forthcoming issues of
Plain Truth.
THE GOOD NEWS:
" A POST-INDUSTRIAL WORLD"
The Basic Model
Growong Poe No one knows accurately what the earth holds or can
produce or what new uses may
be
made of new or old materials But
·growong pie.· · " expandong bowl .. " exercosed muscle.. (or skill) are
good metaphors - oe.. wothon lomots. the more one produces. the more
one
can
produce
Technology and Capital
Absolutely Necessary: New technology and capnal investment are
necessary not only to oncrease production to desirable levels. but also to
help protect and improve the envoronment, to keep resource costs down.
and to provode an economic surplus for problems and croses
Resources
Adequacy:
1t
woll
be
possoble to support. at moddlo-class standards. world
populations of 20 or 30 billion atlevels of 20 or 30 thousand (1974)
dollars per capota for centunos. lndeed, we can do thos largely using only
current and near current technology.
Current Growth
Transitoon to Stabohty One can make a plausible case for world
population stabilozong on the 21st century at about 15 bollion. gross world
product per capota stabolozong at aboul S20.000 and gross world product
at about s300 tnlhon - gove or take factors of two or three.
lnnovation and Discovery
Huge lmprovements: New resources. technology and economic growth
oflen produce new probloms and crises but they can still be used to solve
probl ems, omprove effocoency and upgrade the qual i ty of l ile toa
permanently high plateau.
Industrial Development
Must Contonue: lndustnalozauon of the Thord World will (and should)
continua.
1t
os foolosh to omagone that the roch natoons will voluntaroly
share 10 the extent of deprivatoon for the nch
Ouality of Life
Eventually a Hogh Quality of lile for All: Much of what some elites or
esoteric groups considor destructiva, many others consider constructiva.
Once there is widespread acceptance of the initial costs. the complaints
may still be very shroll and visible but largely 1nappropriate or very
specialized .
Long-Range Outlook
Thongs Are Goong Reasonably WeH: The 21st century os hkely to see a
post·ondustnal economy on which the more desperate and seemingly
eterna! problems of human poverty woll have largcly been solved or
greatly alleviated Whole tragic mistakes and much suffering and damage
may mark this historocaltransiuon toa materoally abundant lile for almost
al
l.
the u ltimate prospect is breathtakingly superior to tradi tional poverty
and scarci ty.
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