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Egyptiw to lc:eep faitb in Ameri–
can diplomaey.
As far as an interim solution
is
cooeemed~
wagers are to
be
made
on Washington ratbe.r than Ge·
neva.
lf
tbe U.S. is willing - and
lhere is noquestion
tbat it
is
able -
_ somelhing oould still be salvaged in
the three monlhs or grace given by
Presiden• SadaL Tbe only missing
element rora renewal or the secre–
ta.ry
of state•s efforts in
the
regioo
would be Israel•s realization tllat
it
has commltted a mista.ke by not
acceptlng
an
interim agreement
with Egyp1.
11
has irritated the
Washington adminis-tration
anden·
couraged eltuemist etemenl$ in tbe
Arabworld.
SADAT'SWINDOW
TOPEACE
Fi.rst contacts for a second
try
-at
inlerim agreement eould probably
bcgio io Washington aod latcr
move to the Middle East. Presiden!
Sadat has allowed only tbree
monlhs
foi
agrecment.
He is
in
the
habit of making
a
major decision
every year, and
this
should be
bis
achievemenl
of
the year. (He
erushed the Jeft-wingers in
1971,
expelled the Soviet advisers in
19n,
fought
a
war in
1973,
and
achieved tbe
fttst
dise.ngagement
agreement in ·
1974.)
lt
will be
ruinous to aUow President Sadat
to
tnake a diJrcrent
kind
ofmajor de–
cis-ion
in
the absence of
progrcss
toward
peace. o
by
Adli Muhtadi
Judging by initial reaction from
Israel, Presiden! Sadat's speecb of
March
29
_might havo left
a small
window open for oegotiations
in
the Middle East. Israelí JeadeiS
have
r~acted
by
inslsting that aU
is
not
lost. -
tbat there is a.mple time
before the reeonvening of the Go–
neva peace conference to indulge
in further bilateral tall<s through
the
U
.S. Tbe
Israelí
prcss cborused
in
with
the idea that while lhe road
to Geneva
ls
fraught with danger
and eompüealions, the bilateral ap–
proacb eootinues
to
hold promise.
The Jsiaeli reaction
is best
un·
dentood
in
relation to President
Sadat's owo -proposals
aod
1he re–
fteetioos or the
Syrians
and Pales–
tinians.
Tbe Egyptian leader has
proved himself once more a master
tactician.. lnstead, in bjs own words.
of succumbing to emotions, he has
cbosen to cxtcnd the mandau of
ISOLATIONISM
tc""'-"1-
,..,.
JJ
Soviet Corees
with
thcir
owii
non–
nuclear
defeme. whicb,
if
success–
ful, tould forestaU a ·nuclear ex–
cbange. But thcre?s
no
way
this
can
be aceompüshed without the·eon·
linued presenee of
all
the Ameri·
can troops currently staúoned in
.
Europe, and probably theo some.
Meanwhile, in the United States,
il is .good politics 10 advocate low–
ering the military profile both at
bome, and particularly abroad.
Even though the Senate rcversed
ilself in the autumn of
1973
after
ftrst
voting to force
a
substaotial
eutback of
U
.S. troops in Europe.
Congress bas since changed in the
directioo of isolatíonism. Even
sucb a traditional "bawk.. as Mis-–
slssippi's
Senator John Stcnnis.
now Chairman of the
Armed
Ser–
vices .Commiltee, beüeves that the
United States no longer oeeds all
or ils
300,000
troops in Europe.
Obsetvers note that the debate
betweeo an
admlnístratioo advo–
eating continued American inter·
oationalisp:1 and a Congress
pushing for a global retrenchment
paraUels the situatioo shortly afler
WoddWarl.
At that time, Congressional'nofu–
sal
to
support Presiden! W'tlsoo's
prornise
to
have America join the
4
ibe U.N. peaee force by three
months a.oQ reopeo the Suea Canal
on June
S -
two moves tbat are
obviously eonciüatory despite the
failUre of Dr. K.issinger•s mlssion.
Sadat)s decisions were surpñsing
bccause no one
clse:
appeared at
tbe time
to
bave- faith in the possi·
bility of peace. His
actions
may un·
derline a
stroog personal
eonviction that peace is likely, as
tho nopeoing
of
the Suez Canal
with
its consequent repopulation
or
lhe Canal cities woord strictly timit
Egypl's mili1ary options.
_
The
Syriaos and Palestinia_ns,
who bad hopO<! that the Egyptiaos
would join thetn in
demanding
a
returo to Gcneva, muSt havc
looked a.skance at Presiden! Sada1'$
lates-t
decisions. The
l.sraelis,
mind·
fui of Syria's
disillusionment and
the Palestinians' bostility, reacted
as
expected by eneouraging the
League of Na1ioos brought down
the potitjcal structure
lo ,
Europe
whicb Wilson had labored to build.
Europe's
Optioos
In view of
thls
gtowiog Ameri–
can predisposition toward isola–
tionism,
tbe
futurc of Wcstem
Europe·s seeurity beoomes more
cloudy
than
ever.
The
Soviet Uoion
possesscs
overwhelming conven..
tional superiority and
is
steadlly
adding
10
its strength.
liS
fuperior–
ity in "taoks is
6
lo
1,
in
aircrart
2
to
l. By contrast, non-Arnerican
NATO eonventionf)
ror~
are so
low that
only
a nuclear war
eould
prevent
the Soviet
Union
from
roll·
ing
over
Europe
at will
General Michael
Oavison.
oom–
mander of the U.S." a(llly in Eu·
rope, believes that if the large U.S.
presence were removed frOm Eu–
rope, «we wOu!d see.an"evoly,tion
of
political and economic poüey
that would tilt the capila.ls ofWest–
em Europe in the direetion of
Moscow.u
The stage is thus being set for the
domination of Europe by Moseow
through the sheer preponderante
ormilitary power.
.
Ono of Europe's more.outspokco
poütical commeotators, Otto von
Habsburg, fem that since the U.S.
ouclea( shield over .Europe exists
Adli Muhtadi is a Palesrinian Arob .
from a long-eJtablished Jerusa/em
family. .He was educaud
al
St.
Gtorg~s
..
Ang/kpn
School,
Jeruso.. ;.'
l•m, and at the Col/ege ofJoumal–
ím•, Cairo. In /951 he joln<d the
Hashemlte Broadca.rling Corpora·
/Ion of Jordan, and ftom 1962 ro
1971 was Director of the TV and
RadioCo11Jmtrciol Departmenl, Jor·
donian Minlstry of lnfonnalion. He
..
Itas
also served
tJS
consultan/ for
R.T.
V.
lntemational
of N.
Y.
and
for the Ass-ociated
BusintiS
Cons-ul·
tanu
ofBeintt.
only in
tbeory
on paper.
it can
-also
"be IAken back on paper." Von
Habsburg also notes tbat Westem
Europe has the means to insure
its
own security.
lts
population
is
larger than either the U.S. or
U.S.S.R.
lt
is also the world's
sec–
ond
largcst
economic powe.r. He
concludes that if European govern–
ments "'want to act responsibly.
tbey
will
have to give the highest
·
priority
to
defense.'·
European govcrn.meots
ue obvi..
.ously reluctant to bolsier their de–
reuse establishments.
1t
takes
moncy
out of hard pressed domes.
tic budgets. lncrcasing troop
strength
is
expen.s-ive
and
u.npopu·
lar. This may force them 10
the
less
expcns.ivc
option of
relying
on
tac–
tical
nuclear
weapoM.
As
a consequcnce, mililary logic
may someday force tbe West Eu.ro·
peans to
arm
h,eavily with rela–
ti-vely smaU nuclear weapons
in
order to bave a relatively quick and
inexpensive way of holding back a
Soviet
invuion.
Thus,
eurreot political treads in
the Uniled States aod in the AUan–
tic
alliancc,
tbe eeooomies
or
strained
nationaJ budgets, and the
need 10, defend Europe against a
conventional attatk seem
to
insure
lhat
a
rearmed Europe
i.s
patl of
the future.
O
-
by
Gene H. Hogberg
Will Europe Go lt Alone?
The ·most critical question of the hour
is:
What will be
tl
impact of America's
ex~ruoiating
experience in lndochina •Upon b
olher far more strategicj.nterests?
·
In Eur.ope. specificaJJy, the big fear now is that Washingt<
will abandon its position as leader of the free world and inste:
seek a d&ngerous a.ccommodation with the forées of tolalitarianis>
For it is not America's power Europeans
are
beginnirig to d.istru
but America'sjudgment and will.
_
Vietnam, concemed Eilropeans betieve, may have c!oud
Washington's world perspective. They fear that the Un.ited Stal
- having tasted bitter defeat at the hands of a second·rate, hom
grown Communist power will "go
soft
on" the truly intemational
Communist power, tbe Soviet Union; that it will
gi~e
away
t
much tn Moscow in strategic
arms
negotiations; that it will give
a.nd receive nothing in retum in !he upC!Lming Soviet-inspir
European Security Conference. ln short, as Britain's weekly
Ecor.
mist
pul it, !he U.S. is in danger of ignoring lhe fundamental
fi
thal "two very ditferent
ideas
about !he organization of
soci<
remain the centerpriece ofintemational politics."
After two or more decades of unprecedented prospe!ity, m•
of America's allies
in
Europe have no desire to slide by default –
appears to be happening in Portugal - into the Communist can
Says the astute political aoalyst for Londoo's
Daily Telegra¡
Peregrine Worsthome:
"The
Americ:>-ns, having been
milit~r
htlJ!liliated
i.J¡
Vietnam; and fon:ed,IQ
l).eq-~y ~..al.l~. ha:v~
vested interest now in overlooking the moral diroension, since it
too painful to consider. But for the rest of lhe world, West<
Europe included, this could be a . terribly dangcrous pro
dent ...just at the moment when Commuoist liberation mo•
ments are beginning torear their ugly heads in Europe too."
But what are the Europeans
10
do? - trappe<l as they ;
between one power with dubious intentions and another, th
protector, who as the Frcnch newsweekly
Le
Point
editorializ
has become a "chained G ultiver" u.nable to act and whose "para
sis was
contagious.
n
Another Frenchman, the noted poliu"caa commenlator for
Figaro,
Raymond Aron, gives a c lue asto
~estero
Europe's
lill
course for lhe fulure: "We are. beginning to see the wisdom of
1
remarks recently made by Mao Tsc-tung and Chou
En-lai
to
<
visitihg statesmen.
"In tbe eyetJ of the Cbinese leaders, the
05.
has beco:
militarily and politically a declining power.
11
is lhe other sup
- power that needs
to
be counterbalanced."
The Chinese, in comroentS to West Germany's Franz Jos!
Strauss, among others, have beeo encouraging
W~tem
Europe
proceed quickly to political union.
In
Peking's eyes,
if
the Uni
States no longer cbooses lo act as the oounterbalance on Russ.
western ftank, then tbe Europeans themselves must do
so.
lbe ql.\estion ofU.S. reliability is being aslced most urgentl)
WetJt Germaoy. The Federal Republic stands in the front
!in~
any future confrontation with lhe Soviet Union.
11
is here that
vast majority ofAmerica's NATO troops in Europe are stationec
While maintaining an outwardly "undisturbed" position
the events in Soutbeast Asia, the West German goverrunent
cenlly circulated
10
its key personnel tbe results of a
"Harris
Pe
taken in tbe United States. The poU revealed that less than
~
the American pubtic would be willing to send,additional force!
Europe in the event of an attack upon Westem Europe or
outpost, West Berlin.
_The mood in Gennany, NATO's largest'military contribt
outside of the United States, must be monitored seriousiY. fr
oow on. Uproming elections in key West German
londer,
or sta
may reveal bow strong is the
angst
over America's declining
p
tion in the
free
world and how soon the Gennans and othen
Europe might feel compelled to "go it alone" in tbeir own s
defense.
WEEK ENDINO MAY 3, :