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would think of a way to express major
world trends in computar language and
foretell our futura in • pnntout. And
s.nce eompute.rs never make mistakes
(except on credit card btlls), there would
be no need to argue about whether the
futura would be he8ven or hell, since
we'd have
it
spread out right before us
in btnarv black and whíte
Sure anough, the ftrst computar
" world model'' has been constructed. 1t
was developed at Massachusetts lnsll–
tute of Tachnology, and the results ob–
tained from it were pubhshed in a now·
fomous book callad Limits
ro
Growth.
And while no one is clalming that MIT
computers have írrevocably spread out
our futura before us. the authors of Lim·
111
ro
Growth feel that they con make
sorne broad predicttons wtth certainty
One such broad predtetion
i$
that " if the
present growth trends in world popu–
lation. industrialization, pollution, food
production. and resource depletion con·
tlnue unchanged. the llmits to growth
on thts planet will be reached sorne time
within the next one hundred years."
A second broad pred1C1ion
is
that it
wlll be tmpossible for technology to save
us from the first predictton. The scien–
ttSts arrived at this conclus10n by allow–
ing for what they considerad generous
technological advances in rew materials
usage, food production and pollution
control Even so, tho computar spellad
out dtsaster unless both population
growth and economte growth (as we
know ti) were halted
lf
we
are to avoid
such
dtsaster. Lim·
1ts
to Growch tells us. societies must
begin "preparing for a period of great
transition - the transition from growth
10
global equilibrium " Even plannad
and preparad for, tht transition is fore·
costad 8S "painful. " but the computar
agrees
with
many sc•enusts in saying
that d
we
don't plan. we wtll bump our
growtng heads agatnst one of the
oanh' s natural llmits - such as too few
raw mataríais or too much pollution.
The "Painful Trensitlon"
The majority of our presant prognos–
ttcators of doorn - whether 1/ley be
mtlttarv. eoologiCBI, or economic proph·
ets -
feel man c11n save himself.
Somethtng can
be
done; the worst
might be avenad .
Their pessimistic predictions only take
on a Malthusian inevitabilily when we
reali:e that men usually lack the charac–
ter and ftexibility to make the necessarv
changes.
Manktnd won't be
fO«:ed
to form a
gtant Neroic string sect•on and fiddle tts
own finale. even though the conductor' s
score calis for it.
As Heilbronner wrole. "lf lhen, by
the question 'ls there hopa for man?',
we ask whether il is possible to meet the
challenges of the future wilhout the
payment of a fearful price. the answer
must
be:
No. there •• no such
hope. ..
He1lbronner"s favorite solution -
a
" no-growth economy" - would run so
deeply against the personal interests of
so many people that it seems unlikely
wo will smoothly and voluntarily make
the SWitCh.
" Therefore." Hetlbronner fears. "the
outlook
i$
for what
we
rnay coll
con–
vulsiva change· - change
torced
upon
us by extemal aventa rether than by
WllEK ENDING
APRII.. 19. 1975
conscious choice. by catastrophe rather
than by calculation.
" The problllm •s that the challenge to
survival still lies sufftetently far in the
future, and the inental momentum of
tho present industrial order is still so
graat. that no substantial voluntarv di–
munition of growth, much less a
planned reorganization of socjety, is
today even remotely ímagmable."
But Heilbronner sees a possible sofu·
110n through a benavolent Big Brother:
Until modem doomsdayers made us
stop and look around,
we
were rolling
mernly along in thts parpetual civ–
ihtauon machine. unaware
that
we
were
only one smoggy breath away from
turníng that delightful contreption into a
rusty hulk stranded by a stagnant cess–
pool.
Perhaps it's the haight of realistic
opumism to spaak of
a
pos1-doomsd11y
world That's whera Bible prophacy
stands
alone
in
íts
unbounded optrnism.
THE FOUR HORSEMEN
1••
viewed
by Albi'Khl
Ourt~r,
p. 8/ _,_ qu#l>tifitd by Tltom..
Mtlthu• (leftJ and
che
MIT computor (righr}.
"Candor compels me to suggest, that
the passage through the gauntlet ahead
may be possible only under govern–
ments copable of rellytng obedience lar
more effectively than would be possible
tn a democretic setting ."
Arnold Toynbee echoes this dis–
testeful solution:
"1
can imagine the
world beíng held together and kept at
peace in the year 2000 by en atro–
ciously tyrannicol dictatorship whteh
would not hesitare to ktll or tonure any–
one who. in
its
eyes. was a menace to
the unquestioning acceptance of its ab–
solutt authority . •. lf the reluctant ma–
jority does accept thts dictatorship . ..
1
think they will be making the right
choice, becouse it would enable the
human race
10
survive" (SIItviving che
Futura).
Peosimism. Optimiam, or Realism?
Malthus. Heilbronner and the MIT
computer are only three -
among
lhousands - of the professional proph–
ets of doom. These pessimists and
doomsdayers have done us optimists 8
big favor. They've left us with the real–
tzation that civilization could fail . Un–
nervmg
as
that feeling is, it may be
better than believing thet this mess we
now
hve in will conunue to muddle
through etemity.
The optimists had come to believe
that man had devisad what no other
species or age of man had the ability to
build - a parpetual civilization ma–
chine -
which~
once set in motion,
would nevar cease functioning. leaving
us free to behave in any manner
we
mightwant.
"Israelita Prophecy"
With lhe advent of computers. proph–
ecy has come a long way, but we
shouldn't forget that tts tap root runs
lhree millennia deep. The worfd's first
prophets were those callad of God and
sent to the nation of anclent Israel.
The Encyclopaedía Britsnnica states
that "as a matter of historical fact. the
most outstanding and influential pro–
phatic phenomenon. as lar as Westem
culture is eoncerned. was Israelita
propllecy" (1970 editton). An eartier
edition even stated. "The Hebrew
prophet stands alone among divinely
appolnted and inspirad men of any reli·
gion" (15th adition) .
The authoritative textbook. A Svrvey
of Old Tescament lnuoduction, goes
even funher. stating: " The Holy Bible
Í$
hke no other bciOk in tha wortd. h
is
the
only bciOk which presents itself as the
written revelation of the one true God.
intendad for the salvation of man. and
demonstrating its divino authority by
many ínfallible proofs. Other religious
documents . .. may claim lO be the
verv word of God. but they contairi no
such self-authenticattng proofs as does
tha Bible (for example, the phenomena
of fulfilled prophec'i)."
Human Prediction
Uninspired men havo boen t rying to
penetrare the dark vale of the futura for
centurias. Ancient diviners in Egypt and
Mesopotamia examinad the entrails of
antmals for omens conoeming futura
events. Astrologers have studied the
heaven seeking the same. Ancient
Greeks had their orecles. and medieval
palaceshad their coun magtcians.
Today. although
we
sttll have di–
viners. astrologers. patmists. and
oracles of all kinds. the dubious an of
prediction is becoming more respact–
able, more scientific. and. in fact. verv
much more in demand. Recent decades
have witnessed the emargence of a new
breed of "prophets" called fvturists.
Their standard method of predtction in–
volves the identifteatton of trends and
then extrapolating those trends into the
futuro to show what probably will hap–
pen if trends are not interrupted.
But the strictly mechanical methods
of trend extrepolation have not provad
very Successful.
lf you would compare the
success
of
the biblteal predict.ons of
2,
500 years
ego to those pradtcttons meda by scien–
tists just 25 years ago, you would find
that lsaiah. Jeremiah. Ezekiel, and Dan–
iel d'escribed the wor1d of 1975 far
more accurately lhan did the scienlists
of 19501
The "Modem Jeremiah"
Tht prophet who gave his name to
the pejorative term.
jttrt~mi8d.
is seem–
ingly back on tha job alter a 2,5()()..year
sabbaticol, during whlch he apparently
earnod a Ph.O. in investigative joumal–
ism.
Foreseeing the calamitles to strike
during the twentieth centurv. Jeremiah
wrote, " Alas! For that
day
is
graat. so
that none
is
like it.
it
rs the time of
Jacob's trouble; but he shall be savad
out of it" (Jeremiah 30: 7).
This typical " jeremiad" spaaks of
doomsday (as " Jacob's trouble"). but it
also speaks of the positivo post·
doomsday world (we "shall
be
saved
out of
it').
The enttrtty of biblical
prophecy is simtlarly belanced between
the good news
and
tha bed. between
doomsday and the wondorful world that
followsit.
And as far as "modern Jeremiahs"
go, the upbeat Jeremiah beginning in
chapler 31, verse 7. deserves the term
"jeremiad" just
as
much as hts
doomsday counterpan •n chapter 30,
verse
7.
Jeremiah the
opt1m1St
wrote. ..For
thus saith the lord; Sing with gladness
for Jacob. and shout among the chief of
the nations: publish
yo,
praise ye. and
say. O Lord. save thy people, the rem–
nant of Israel.
"Behold.
1
will bring them from the
nonh countrv.
and
gather them from
the
coasts
of tha eanh. and with them
the blind and the lame, the woman with
chtld and her that trevaileth with chtld
togÓlher: a great co(11pany shall return
thither.
"They shall come with weeping. and
with supplications will
1
lead them:
1
will
cause them to walk by the rivers of
waters in a straight way. wherein they
shall not stumble .... (Jer. 31 : 7-9).
The Bible contaons more good news
than bad news. Write for
a
free sub–
scription to The GoorJ News magazine
and the bciOklet The Wonderful Wor/d
Tomo«ow - What lt Wi/1 Be Like. Al–
ter you've read them. we defy you to
coll us "Prophets of Ooom." lnstead,
think of Pfain TI'IJrh
as
tha herald of lhe
post-doomsday world - the world
tomorrow.
O
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