Page 2550 - 1970S

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Garner Ted Armstrong
SPIAKS OUT!
Only a few months pnor to the
1973 Yom Klppur war. West·
ern exports conf1dontly
pred1cted tho Arab oil pro–
ducers would nover act mul ti–
laterally to use the~r oil as a poil ticol
weapon aga1nst supporters of Israel.
Leadmg magazmos with such rc–
assunng statements were Sllli in
fa1rly current c~rculallon when tho
Arab oil producers d1d 1ust that
Suddenly, 11 seemed that v1rtually
unknown Arab she1kdoms. somo of
them barely entenng the 20th cen–
tury in development. wcre hold1ng a
SCimltlH d~rectly over the 1ugular of
much ol thc dcvelopod world
Westcrn Europe. almosttotally
dependent on 011 1mports. and Ja
pan. wholly so. woro qu1ck to getthe
message. D1plomats scrambled to
convmce the Arabs olthe~r govern–
ments' smcerest mtonllons to mod–
erate the~r poSIIIOns toward Arab
countnes. wh1le sllHenmg the~r poi–
ICIOS toward Israel
Perhaps never bclore 1n h1story
had the combmed 1mpact ol em–
bargo lollowed by quadrupled
pnces of an esscnt1al commod1ty.
brought such undrcamed of results
No one could arguo, when all the
facts were known. that the Arab oil
producers wore receiv1ng too hule
for thc~r oil . or that atleast somo
significant price hikes were long
overdue. But tho suddon Quadru·
pling of 011 pnces sent country alter
country into a balance of paymonts
nightmare. India. as a case in poínt.
suddenly found horsel f ilterally un–
able to pay for the now four times
h1ghor 011 she noedod to continuo
the governmont programs to ach1evo
self-suH1C1ency 1n food Only years
beforc lnd1a had opt1m1St1c hopos of
lantasuc agncuhural .ncreases
based upon the ' green revoluuon "
But th1s 1n turn reQu~red greater
mechamzauon of agnculture. reQulr·
mg mass1ve use ol gasoilno and diO·
sel-powerod farm mach1nery.
1ntenstve fertiliza110n w11h 01l-based
chem1cals, and masstve treatment
w1th chem1cal pesuc1des and herb1-
c1des (o1l-based) , as well as modern
storage fac1ilttes (heated by 01l), and
modem1zed truck and ra1l d1stnbu–
t1on methods (ustng gasol1no)
12
lnd1a ' s hope forself-suHiciency
has now vanished. 'fhe "green revo–
lution" did not mlitl)riálile as the sal–
vation of tradi tiona_lfy fóod-delicient
nations and ,¡he soating costs of en·
ergy plunged India monthly mto se–
rious balance of payments def1cits.
In country alter country soaring
011costs have deal t equally cruel
blows ltaly and Britain have been
posttng dehcits of enormous propor–
tiOns. up to 2 billton dollars per
month How do such countries pay
for their desperately needed energy
reQulrements?
They borrow. Britain has bor–
rowed from central European banks.
as well as dJrectly from lran But
even borrowmg has its hm1ts, not
only from unmanageable econom•es
at home, but even from international
sources equally concomed aboutthe
viab1lity of those sound economies.
Worned about the desporately shaky
economy of Bntam. Saud1 Arabia re–
cently served nollce it would no
longer accept sterling in payment for
IISOII.
So. while the Western industrial
powers were incurring massive rec·
ord-breaking defictts. the Arab oil
produccrs were collecting record–
breaking surpluses .
For 1973. even including the last
few months of that year following
the Yom Kippur war, the oil -export·
ing countnes were running su r·
p luses of around s 5 billion. By
year's end. 1974, the figure had
leapt to 565 bill ion
Atthe same time, the etght major
1ndustrial nations were running up a
total balance of payments deficit of
$31 billion , while the sama coun–
trtes had achieved a s 9 b1lhon sur–
plus tn 1973
So lar. the only practica! remedy
has appeared to be borrowing back
- recychng - the largest share of
funds accrued by the 011 producers
Now, suddenly, even that picture
has changed The reason?
Recent gold and monetary shul–
fling
Pres1dent Ford and Pres1dent Gis–
card d ' Estaing of France reached
somo s1gnificant understanding on
the oHicial price of gold at their
meetings in the Caribbean recently.
wh1ch brought 1mmed1ato response
1n the form of thtnly vo1led threats
from some otl producmg nauons
Obv1ously any btlateral or umlat
eral act1on on gold pohcy by nauons
w1th S1gn1hcant gold reserves would
1mmed1ately result 1n devaluauon of
such nat1ons currenc1cs mak1ng
them lar more compet111ve 1n pay.
ments lor 1mports
The Shah ollran, earher QUOted
as saymg he would clamp down a
total 011 embargo 1n response to any
such act1on . was la ter explatncd •
by a government spokesman 1n
more moderate terms But the Arabs
were clearly worned. nevcrtholcss.
So long as the billtons conllnuod to
flow into Arab hands, so long as thc
Western oconom•es cont1nued to
wrestlo with unacceptable " siego
economies. " the Arabs seomed con–
tent.
W1th the poss1b1lity of sudden re–
formol gold pohcy, all that was
changed .
lraQ proposed an overall mter–
national agreement on gold and
money poltctes
Saddam Husse1n. deputy chatr–
man of the Rultng Revolutlon Com–
mand Counctl . sa1d, " Any state. or
group of states that takes steps that
w1ll worsen tnternauonal mflat1on
w1ll be held respons1blc for them
meamng the Un1ted States and
Franco, pnmanly s1nce a dramauc
sh1h lrom $42 an ounce lor gold, as
11 is oH1c1ally pegged. to. say, 1n the
ne1ghborhood of $200 an ounce.
would 1mmedtately make the dollar
enormously more compeuuve 1n
buy1ng power Should th1s occur, 11
would seem the Arabs are threat–
entng one of two acuons. or both
They could once aga1n clamp
down on otl exports, evon down to
as l i ttle as 30% of present Shlp–
ments, or they could simply ra1se
pnces (hence the warning about
" worsening internauonal lnflat1on")
which would eHecuvely wnte oH any
such al teralton m gold pnces.
So. according to the Arabs. the
use of oil embargoes. QUadrupfing of
pnces. and then addi ttonal price
hikes from ttme to time. sending
Western econom1es 1nto fiscal
chaos. is QUite all nght by them. On
the other hand. for the mdustnahzed
nations to f1ght back by act1on on
gold poi1C•es. thus rendenng their
currenc1es of lar moro value 1n 1nter–
nat10nal exchange. IS supposedly
1mmoral
Th1s strange atutudo IS further re–
llected 1n the th1nkmg of the Alge–
nan government spokesman who
sa1d 11 was " 1nadm1sstble" lor na–
ltons to cons1der usmg commod111es
" necessary for human surv1val' ' as a
pohucal weaponl Th1s mcredtbly
trontc statement emerged 1n the af–
termath of tho world conference on
lood, result1ng from wh1spers that
the large lood producers m1ght be
considermg retaliat1on 1n the form of
halung gram shtpments.
But try as you may. 11 seems 1m–
poss1ble to work out pro¡ections of
balanc&-of-payments and debt-car–
rymg potenuals lor many Olltmpor–
ters beyond the hrst lew months of
1975 Some of the shakiest1mport-
1ng nat1ons s1mply will not be able to
pay for otl - and that m a matter of
monthsl
Clearly. somethtng has to give
B1ble prophecy strongly 1ndtcates
an mtemat1onal ..pushmg and shov–
mg match " between a " king of the
south" anda "ktng of the north"
that will bnng the openmg round of
a mass•ve war in the Mideast (Dan .
11:40-45)1
The lar¡guage of the prophecy
suggosts a move by the nations
(callad " the countries... ..many
countries ." and the " land of
Egypt " ) constituting the "kmg of the
south " (Saud1Arabia is interestmgly
enough ruled by a king - and so IS
tran , where the word "Shah" means
" king " ) to be 1n the area oltrade or
monetary pol1cy, rather than 1n the
mihtary area
" And at the ume of the end shall
the k1ng of the south PUSH at h1m
[the kmg of the north]; and t.he ktng
of thc north shall come against h1m
hke a whtrlwmd. wtth chanots ... and
wllh horsemen. and with many
sh1ps; and he shall enter into the
countnes, and shall overflow and
pass over He shall enter also mto
the glorious land [modern Israel]
and many countries shall be over–
thrown . He shall stretch forth
h1s hand also upon the countríes
the land of Egypt shall not escape .
" But he shall have power over the
treasures of goldand of si/ver and
over all the precious things of Egypt·
and the Libyans and Ethiopians shall
be at his steps " Do these words
also indicato that gold w i ll start flow·
ing mto the M ideast from the mone–
tary reserves of the industrial iled
world to pay for oil - and that the
same gold will someday be forcibly
recovered?
The Arabs have been " pushing"
lately. Hard.
Yassir Aralat recently charged the
United States and Israel with se–
cretly conspiring to attack the Arab
oil producers
However. neither Arafat or other
more bona-fide Arab leaders can
guarantee that the enormous powers
of Western Europe or ol the supor–
giant of industry, Japan, w1ll be
found bereh of options in solving
the contmual dratn of their hnancial
reserves 1nto Arab hands.
What 1975 may bring '" the M1d·
east could QUite literally be the spark
wh1ch ultimately ignites World War
111, unless something presently
unforeseen prevents it. o
Wf..EK ENOING FEB. ~- 191S