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ploiting" the developing nations
and slow down their own mass-con–
sumption economies. Delegates
from underpopulated developing
countries such as Zambia wondered
why they should be lumped in the
same category as the densely popu–
lated developing nations such as India.
There was a lot of name-calling.
Even a hardened core of women's
libbers had their say. To their way
of thinking, unless the status of
women can be "upgraded" world–
wide, the female half of the human
race has no choice but to live simply as
homemakers and baby "):)reeders."
The accusers, even though sorne–
times voicing legitimate complaints,
always appeared right in their own
eyes. AU in all, the politics of popu–
lation tended to overshadow the ac–
tual facts and statistics gathered by
the world's leading demographers.
Nearly Four Billion
World population is now in the
region of 3.8 billion (3.8 thousand
million). Such a figure may be quite
meaningless to most of us.
Population
increase,
on the other
hand, is easier to grasp. In 1850,
there were a billion people on earth.
The figure doubled by 1929, when
the Great Depression began. Only
three decades later, world popu–
lation had increased by another one
billion. lf present trends continue,
there could probably be six to seven
billion people on earth by the year
2000 - and 18 biUion by 2050.
Why has the number of people in
the world mushroomed at such a
staggering rate since 1850? What
has caused the snowball elfect?
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834),
who was credited with the first stud–
ies of demography - the statistical
science dealing with the distribu–
tion, density, vital statistics, etc. of
populations - believed that, with–
out checks to population growth, the
increases would be such that any
additiooal production in an econ–
omy wouJd not contribute to an
improved standard of living, but
rather it would maintain or lower the
standard.
PLAIN TRUTH October-November 1974
According to Malthus: "The
power of population is indefinitely
greater than the power in the earth
to provide subsistence for meo. Pop–
ulation, when unchecked, increases
in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence
increases onJy
in
an arithmetical ratio."
Here in Bucharest, sorne dele–
gates took strong exception to the
Malthusian doctrine, so widely ac–
cepted in the West. Not without
sorne logic, Huang Shu-tse, China's
deputy minister of health, asserted
that "the world's population has
more than trebled since that of Mal–
thus' time, but there has been a
much greater increase in the mate–
rial wealth of society."
But with world population now
increasing faster than ever before,
will the production and processing
of food and other raw materials be
able to increase at the same rate?
Confinned Malthusian demogra–
phers say, "No way." They have
sorne rather alarming statistics to
back up their call for population
control.
Post-War Surge
At the end of World War 11, the
birth rate in Western countries
surged sharply upward. This was
due to the return to civilian life of
large numbers of servicemen. In
Western Europe this "baby boom"
had spent itself by the early 1950's,
and in the United States by the mid-
1960's.
In the developing nations of the
so-called "Third World," however,
things were far dilferent. The ab–
sence of major famines, coupled
with improvements in the standard
of living, in public health and in the
control of epidemic diseases, began
to alfect mortality. The use of DDT
to control malaria speeded up the
decline in mortality rates. In Sri
Lanka, for example, the death rate
fell from 20 per thousand to 14 per
thousand in the year 1946-7 alone.
Throughout the developing world,
death rates were falling rapidly.
Declines in mortality, which had
been spread over a century in West–
ern Europe, were achieved
in
little
more than a decade in many less
developed countries. The decline in
the death rate in these nations was
most apparent in babies, children
and young adults. Consequently,
the high proportion of young people
has now become the most critica!
issue of the population puzzle in the
developing countries. In most of the
Third World, over 40 percent of the
population is under 15 years of age,
compared with 30 percent in North
America and only 25 percent in Eu–
rope. The reproductive potential of
these young people is vast. So vast
that, as they in turn procreate, man–
kind will face the prospect of a men–
acing future.
During 1974, 74 million people
will be born
in
excess of those who
will die. This is equivalent to creat–
ing another France or another West
Germany. Every second there are
two additional mouths to feed.
Every day there are 200,000 more
births than deaths, 6 million more
every month.
lt
is no wonder then
that numerous experts fear the
world is hurtling rapidly to a crisis
point.
Third World Fears
One persistent hurdle the popu–
lation statisticians at the United Na–
tions have been trying to clear is the
deep-seated feeling of suspicion in
the developing nations that any
population control policy is an at–
tempt on the part of the West to
keep developing nations poor and
backward.
In many nations the whole ques–
tion of limiting families is in–
fiuenced by various deep-seated
religious mores or taboos. The rep–
resentative from India, for example,
took great exception to Western
fears of an uncontrolled population
explosion. ''They shout and scream
about 'standing room only,' " he
said. "But we believe in rein–
carnation, my friend , so don't worry.
You'll be back."
Among the poorer nations of the
world, large families are often con–
sidered a desirable blessing - and,
in
preindustrial areas, an economic
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