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Developing nations stagger
under sharply higher prices for
oí/. Coming on the heels of
se–
rious food shortages, sky–
rocketing energy costs could
impel the less-developed na–
tions into the final battle to
avert worldwide starvation.
by
Paul Knedel
A
SECRE~PORT
of the oil needs
J-\..
of(~ess-developed
coun-
tries has been prepared by
the World Bank. So serious are the
implications of the World Bank
study that its release has been with–
held (for the time being) lest it
spread panic among the poorer na–
tions.
A high United States official has
dared publicly to sum up the crisis
in the developing Third World in
layman 's terminol ogy. " I n the
United States, it means we may
have to ride the bus instead of
drive." he said. " In Japan and Eu–
rope it could mean recession. In
Asia, Africa and Latín America, it
means disaster."
lndia's Dilemma
India is a case in point of what
could happen. This vast nation has
battled for many years to become
self-sufficient and improve the lot of
its 575 million people. Progress has
been made
in
sorne areas - notably
food production. The introduction
of new, high-yield strains of seed
allowed India to halt grain imports
for a time. But the bounty from the
"miracle" grains is completely de-
pendent upon heavy doses of ferti–
lizer, herbicides and other chemica l
control products.
Now India faces a two-fold prob–
lem. First, the cost ofthese rnaterials
- nearly all of which are by-prod–
ucts of petroleurn or natural gas -
has skyrocketed. India has little in
the way of currency reserves to meet
the higher costs.
Secondly, there
is
a severe ferti–
lizer shortage in the world as a con–
sequence of the energy crisis. Japan.
for example, initially announced a
30 percent cut in chemical fertil–
izer exports. The cut affects many
Asían nations. Japan, of course,
must import oi l from the Middle
East in order · to manufacture the
fertilizer. And Japan feels it must
cut back on overseas sales of petro-