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time (the time it takes to actually
turn the raw material into the us–
able product) is long - perhaps 15
years, certainly 8 - before signifi–
cant production could be achieved
from any of these sources." And this
is assuming a massive program is
launched immediately - using
funds that simply are not available!
The Chase Manhattan Bank
pointed out earlier this year that,
if
energy demands from now until
1985 alone are to be met, costs for
the exp1oration, processing, trans–
portation and marketing of oil will
soar to one million million dollars!
The fact is, the Midd1e East pro–
ducer nations will soon be the only
source for the massive capital
needed for the continued research
and develop¡;nent so fundamentally
necessary to keep the world sup–
plied with energy.
By 1985, the money Arab nations
and Iran wil1 be earning from oil
sales will be nearing the entire
world's present leve! of official gold
reserves and foreign exchange. As
one weekly magazine pointed out,
this would be enough money to pur–
chase every issued stock of all the
world's petroleum corporations.
It is expected that by 1980 the
Arab nations and Iran will be earn–
ing over 60 thousand million dollars
every year. The financia1 strength
represented is overwhelming. In
February, Europe was rocked by a
massive inflow of 6 thousand m1I–
lion dollars, touching off the mone–
tary crisis that resulted in the second
devaluation of the dollar.
European bankers felt that per–
haps 25% of this was Arab con–
trolled. The price of gold buIlion on
world markets continues to remain
at unprecedented highs. Bullion
dealers said much of the heavy de–
mand for gold could be traced to the
Middle East, where wealthy oil pro–
ducers rushed to convert the weak–
ening dollars they were earning into
more solid assets.
Storms Brewing
Financia! experts and economists
the world over realize that major
problems are looming on the hori-
22
zon. From where, for instance, are
the United States, Western Europe
and Japan going to get all those
billions to pay for future energy?
As it appears now, not only
will
Western Europe, the United States
and Japan be competing for oil, but
to keep their very way of life afloat,
they
will
also be competing to sell
the products produced by industries
made possible by - yes, you
guessed it -
OIL.
Oil ls Power
Surprisingly, in a period of his–
tory when the Arabs have been
noted for their disunity in the politi–
cal sphere, they are a growing power
bloc in the commercial world of oil.
The obvious relationship between
oil and politics is not overlooked by
the OPEC. Comprised of nine
Middle East and North African na–
tions plus Indonesia and Venezuela,
this group holds two thirds of the
world's proveo oil reserves and sup–
plies about 85%of the crude oil con–
sumed in Westem Europe and Japan.
Since 1970, the OPEC has suc–
ceeded in raising oil prices sorne
72% over previous Jevels. The rea–
son for their success is pinpointed
by Henri Simonet: "He who is in
possession of energy products is in
possession of power. And this [is
true] literally as well as figuratively,
from the technica1 and from the eco–
nomic and political viewpoint."
It is the Arab nations, primarily,
which have the energy product - oil
- and therefore the tremendous po–
tential for power in every sense of
the word. Westero Europe will be
needing an estimated 28 million
barreis per day by 1980; the United
States, 24 million; Japan, 14 million
and the rest of the nations will
di–
vide sorne 19 million barreis.
The only possible way that
amount of oil can be made available
in the next few years is ifthe Middle
East and North African nations
more than double their present total
production.
The key nation involved is Saudi
Arabia. Beneath its arid deserts lie
the world's greatest known oil re-
serves. As the superpower of world
petroleum, Saudi Arabia would
have to increase production from 7
million barreis each day to more
than 20 million barreis per day by
1980!
Yet it is precisely at this time that
the Arabs have become increasingly
aware that in the face of the world's
soaring demands for oil, even their
giant reserves are finite - especially
in terms of the next decade or two.
They are now beginning to limit
their rate of production. Kuwait's
Minister for Petroleum and Fi–
nance, Abdel Rahrnan Salero al At–
iqi explains why: "We are leveling
our oil production rate for two rea–
sons: first, to maintain our oil re–
serves as long as possible and,
second, because we don' t see any
reason for turning our oil
in
the
ground into money which may tluc–
tuate downward in value.... So Jet
us leave the oil in the ground until
we want to sell it. The value of oil
will not go down."
Oil as a Political Weapon
Enter the Arab-Israeli confl ict -
focal point of all Middle East poli–
tics. At a meeting of the Arab De–
fense Council in Cairo earlier this
year, Iraq's Foreign Minister, Mur–
tada Abdel Baki, proposed suspend–
ing
al/
Arab oi l exports -
for ten
years,
if necessary - to force the
United States and other Western
powers to coerce Israel into a settle–
ment favorable to the Arab nations.
Late last year, the lraq News
Agency quoted lraqi President Ah–
roed Hassan al-Bakr as saying: "We
can now use Arab oiJ as a weapon
against our imperialist enemies in
all our liberation battles, particu–
larly in our decisive battle
in
Pales–
tine."
The chairman of the national lr–
aqi company, Ghanim Abdul Jalil,
stated: " It is our right to be against
governments that are against
us .. . there is a strong relation be–
tween the Palestinian problem and
oil."
Former Egyptian Premier Mah–
moud Fawzi hinted that the Arabs
PLAIN TRUTH October 1973