Page 1793 - 1970S

on its western border and a mighty
Chinese-Japanese combine on its
eastern ftank, decides to take advan–
tage of the out-of-control situation
to make a test-of-power move. Its
object is to strengthen its position
vis-a-vis the growing European in–
fiuence in the Middle East.
The Soviet Union, openly backing
what appears on the surface to be a
"united," United Arab Union oil
embargo, uses its bases on both
sides of the Strait of Hormuz to
blockade any oi l leaving Iraq, l ran
and other sheikdoms.
The Soviet Union then moves
troops into Yemen at the " request"
of guerrillas in control of part of the
country. From its Socotra base in
the Indian Ocean, Soviet naval units
blockade Saudi Arabia and the east
end of the Red Sea. As a result of
Soviet actions, no oil can leave the
area.
Europe's Panicky Reaction
Europe and Japan are in turmoil.
Worried leaders quickly assemble to
assess the options open to them.
Industrial leaders pressure their
governments to get oil flowing im–
mediately. "Unless it does," they
say, " reserves will soon run out,
wrecking Europe's industries." The
public is up in arms. Soon there will
be fue! rationing and higher prices.
In time, as fuel runs out, trans–
portation and industry will be ter–
minaUy affected.
But diplomatic talks are having
no effect. The United Nations ap–
pears powerless to act politically.
The Soviet Union has just vetoed
considerat ion of the oil problem in
the Security Counci l. In the Middle
East itself, no one seems capable of
taking charge. Public, industrial and
economic pressure in Europe and
Japan increases to the breaking
point.
And then....
Back to 1973. The question of the
hour: Where do we go from here? Is
PlAIN TRUTH Moy 1973
it possible at this critica! juncture to
avoid a Middle East confiict of im–
mense proportions? The scenario is
fictitious. But as in a Rand study, it
is based on existing or potential po–
litical and econornic realities.
The stakes are bigh. Middle East–
ern and North African o il is
presently the lifeblood of Europe
and Japan. Neither can exist with–
out it. Also, the United States may
find itself significan tiy dependent on
oil from this area.
ls Prediction Possible?
Based on the current instability of
the oil situation, it is possible that
sorne form of crisis could occur in
the Middle East. And it will not be
beneficia! for the nations concerned.
Here are sorne of the conditions that
couJd help spark a multi-nation con–
ftict over Middle East oil supplies:
(1) Increasing consumption of oi l
by industrial nations, focusing on
greater needs for Middle East oil.
This could result in possible com–
petition between Japan, the United
States and Western Europe for
scarce reserves.
(2) No other significant oil or nat–
ural gas discoveries to offset current
needs and future increases in usage,
resuJting in the much discussed "en–
ergy crisis."
(3) Continuing Soviet naval ex–
pansion and the Kremlin's increas–
ing attempts to control Middle East
oil with etforts to lock out the
United States, Japan and Europe
from Middle East oil sources.
(4) Increasing economic, political
and military power of tbe European
Community in the Mediterranean.
Thus, the temptation to use force in
order to counteract vulnerability.
(5) Shrinkage in the global role of
the United States, with an isolation–
ist approach to world problems.
(6) Continuing desire by the Arab
states for better econornic terms
coupJed with sometimes justified
suspicions regarding the "colonial
powers" of Western Europe and
particular animosity toward the
United States and British "oil inter–
ests."
(7) An impasse in the Arab-Israeli
confiict with oil being used by the
Arabs as a lever to dislodge Westem
support of Israel. Any combination
of tbe above points could lead to an
international oil crisis with dire con–
sequences for the nations involved.
Coupled with other events of an in–
ternational scope not centering on
oil, a time of trauma could ensnare
the nations of the world.
Such a thougbt is not pleasant to
entertain, but to shut our eyes to the
possibilities, indeed probabilities,
wiU not make the Middle East di–
lemma vanish. Unless the Middle
East hot spot is defused, it will re–
main a potential crisis area. o
For further
reading
The interested reader will find the fol–
lowing volumes of help in understanding
the Middle East oil crisis. Besides the
books mentioned, there are numerous ar–
ticles in newspapers, magazines and jour–
nals. which can be found by checlcing the
appropriate guide or abstrae!.
lssawi , Charles, and the Center for Strate–
gic and lntemational Studies, George–
town University, Oil, the Middle East Qrld
the World, New York: The Library Press,
1972.
Lubell, Harold. Middle East Oil Crisis and
Western Europe's Energy Supplies, Balti–
more, Maryland: Johns Hopkins Press,
1963.
Middle East lnstitute, 26th Annual Con–
ference, "World Energy Demands and
the Middle East," Washington, D.C. :
Middle East lnstitute, September 29-30,
1972.
O'Conner, Harvey, World Crisis in Oil,
New York: Monthly Review Press, 1962.
Odell. Peter. Oil and World Power, New
York: Taplinger Publishing Company,
1970.
Schurr. Sam and Homan, Paul, Middle
Eastern Oil and the Westem World, Loo–
don: American Elsevier, 1971.
Stocking, George W. , Middle East Oil,
Kin~port, Tennessee: Vanderbilt Uni–
vers•ty Press, 1970.
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