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oil expert Christophe r Tugend ha t.
who is a lso a Brit ish member of Par–
liament. Na tions may not like it; but
they will have to use Middle Eastern
and North African oil - tha t is, un–
less they a re willing to shut down
their industries.
In the 1960's, 44 percent of the oil
discovered was found in the Middle
East. Other finds, such as the fie lds
in Alaska or the North Sea, as most
experts know, will ha rdly fi llthe gap
caused by increased consumption.
Middle Easte rn na tions have most
of the industria l world litera lly over
a barre!. And if Shell Oil group es ti–
mates a re right - that world oil con–
sumption in the next 10 years will
equal the previous 100 years' con–
sumption - tha t barre! is going to
get painfully la rge.
Of course, unknown factors could
change the circumstances. Perhaps
new sources of power will be devel–
oped. Or newly discovered oi l fields
in Wes te rn Europe, J apa n , th e
United States or othe r pa rts of the
world may drastically a lte r the oil
situation.
But for the next decade or so,
such eleventh-hour si tua tions seem
unl ikely. And as the consumption of
oi l skyrockets, Middle Eas t petro–
leum will become ever more impor–
tan! to Japan, Western Europe, the
United Sta tes a nd the Soviet Union.
A Barrel of Problems
An event which occurred in 1971
unde rscored the importance of oil to
the world's economy and the fragi l–
ity of the Middle East political situ–
a tion.
Du ring Janua ry of t ha t year ,
painful negotiations were in process
in Teheran, l ran, between a score of
oi l companies and the ten OPEC
(Organization of Petroleum Export–
ing Countries) na tions.
During a press conference in late
January, the Shah of Iran, normally
a moder a te, urged a ll ten OPEC
members to take concerted action to
ha lt oil exports, should the com–
panies fai l to come to reasonable
terms.
" If that happens," said an execu–
tive of a U.S. oi l giant , " there would
be complete and ulter chaos in Eu–
rope and Japan." Fortunately, the
oil companies carne to terms.
In earl y 1973, the Shah of Iran
announced that his country would
not renew its existing agreement
wi th t he Western-d omin a ted oi l
consortium after 1979. lran, instead,
ESTIMATED OIL CONSUMPTION ANO PRODUCTION BY 1980
O
NE OF
the most critica! paradoxes of economic geography is
that oil consumer and producer nations are not one and
the sorne. The figures given below illustrate this central
reality of the oi l industry. They illustrate that the world's indus–
trial giants, Jopan and Western Europe in particular, must rely on
other nations for thei r crucial oi l supply. The political implications
of this situation are obvious.
422)
LATIN AMERICA
52?
AFRICA
CONSUMPTION
0
PRODUCTION
Figures in millions of tons
The statistical projections are sorne of the most recent which
are available. They are offered only as probable magnitudes and
possible trends. Exact forecasts must constant ly be revised as
new discoveries are made and changes in the world economic
scene occur.
U.S.S.R. ANO
EASTERN EUROPE
6~
640
a
JAPAN
~59
OTHER CONSUMING
COUNTRIES
Sovrct 1
United
Nolions, Reporl
ol
Jite
Ad
Hoc
Pon.l
ol
h~Mrt•
on Pro;ecrioos of
OM~ond
ond
Svpply
o f Ctvdt
P•trot.um Ptoducts
(ESA. / RT/ Meeting 11/ 14) JontJOry 197'2.
(0 1 consvmptlol\ of only
fovr
tnofot
ttgiOI\S ;,
includ(Kf in
tht MOP obovt. CoMvMption of oil
in
lotin Ametlco, Afrlco,
tht
Middt.
Eost,
Asto
ond Oceonio
is inclvd.d ul'\dtr
"Othet Comuminv Countries.
" )