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The
Cotning
Middle East oilliterally
makes the wheels
of
European and Japa–
nese industry turn. lf
their vital oil source
were choked
off,
panic
reactions could
occur,
plunging the world
toward chaos.
by
Paul William Kroll
T
HERE ARE
níne nations which
can cause the mighty indus–
trial complexes of Japan,
West Germany, G reat Britaín,
France, Italy and the Benelux
countries to virtually grind to a halt.
Their trump card is
OIL.
UnJess you are a student of eco–
nomic geography, you may not even
have heard of sorne of these nations
and kingdoms. A quick map check
will pinpoint them in a belt stretch–
ing across North Africa through the
Middle East to the Indian Ocean.
The nine are Abu Dhabi , Algeria,
Bahrein, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya,
Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
The Oil Consumers
These nine nations supply ap–
proximately 80 to 85 percent of
Western Europe's oil and 90 to 95
percent of Japan's petroleum needs.
The exact figures are not important.
14
Tt
is their magnitude that is impor–
tant.
Currently, even the Uníted States
imports approximately 25 percent of
its oi l from abroad, mostly from
Canada and Venezuela. lt is vir–
tually independent of Middle East–
ern oil. Only 3 to 5 percent of the
U.S. oil needs are supplied by the
Middle East.
Confiicting reports are given re–
garding the United States' future
dependence on Middle East oil. Re–
cently, one concerned U.S. Interior
Department official said that Ameri–
can dependence on Middle Eastern
oil would rise from its relative in–
significance to about one third of its
total consumption by 1985.
One Rand Corporation think
tank study took a ditferent per–
spect ive: "... The degree of [U.S.]
dependence [on Middle Eastern oil]
can be kept at a very low leve! rela–
tive to consumption
if
the United
States chooses to continue a policy
designed to achieve such a re–
sult....
"The option open to the U.S. is,
our study points out, in
sharp con–
tras!
to the position of the countries
of Western Europe and Japan."
These countries, with their projected
increases in oil consumption, will be
almost completely dependent on oil
imported from the Middle East and
North Africa.
To lmport or Not to lmport?
A United States Foreign Policy
Association assessment of the oil
picture agreed in substance with the
Rand study. Both pointed out, how–
ever, that Americans would have to
pay an economic price for remain–
ing independent of oil imports. One
factor: Petroleum can be imported
at a lower cost than it can be pro–
duced in the United States. Thus,
the cost factor will have a large
bearing in the final policy adopted.
Sorne authorities see a potential
three-way rivalry - between the
United States, Western Europe and
Japan - developing for Middle East
oil in the following decades. With a
worldwide energy crisis taking hold,
the rivalry could assume ugly over–
tones.
And we must not forget the Soviet
Union. It will, no doubt, try to es–
tablish and maintain a firm foot hold
in the Middle East.
In mid-1972, for example, Iraq
nationa lized the Western-owned
Iraq Petroleum Company. The So–
viet Union hailed the nationalizing
as a "great victory for tbe Arab
people." A few hours after ex–
propriation of the oil properties,
Moscow met with the Foreign Min–
ister of Iraq. Presumably, the meet–
ing focused on Soviet economic aid
and development of l raq's oi l indus–
try.
The Russians themselves are ap–
parently self-sufficient in oil produc–
tion. In fact, Soviet oil industry
Minister Sashin has predicted that
the Soviet Union will outstrip
present American oil production
within three or four years. (State-
PlAIN TRUTH Moy 1973