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Jqpan Beefs Up Defense Forces
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Prom che ruins of rora! defear in World War II , ) a–
pan has risen co become che world's third most economi–
cally powerful narion, behind the ·united Srares and che
Soviet Union. Japan's milirary might, however, has not
kept pace with irs economy.
Late Jase year, che Japanese govemment decided
co
double defense expendicures co $15 billion over che next
five years. Under chis new 5-year plan, J apan's 22-yeac-old
"Self-Defense Force" will
be
boosred only slighdy - from
250,000
co
260,000 men.
The biggesr depacrure from che current five-yeac plan
is che decision on che pare of che Defense Agency ro pro–
duce che firsr all-Japanese fighrer planes - 127 in all -
since World War
II.
The number of planes purchased
from che Unired Srates, or U. S.-designed planes manufac–
rured under license in Japan, will be markedly reduced.
Prime Miniscer Kakuei Tanaka has emphasized rhat
che progressive buildup of che narion's "Self-Defense
Force" will be purely
defensive
and that Japan's military
forces pose no threac ro Japan's neighbors.
Fears are rising on che pace of sorne nations who
were che vicrims ofJapanese ambitions in che pase.
On rhe surface, rhe new defense budget may appear
ro run councer co rhe rrend roward detente in Asia, spor–
lighted by Tanaka's Seprember visir ro Peking. Still, Ja–
pan's arms spending under che new 5-year plan will
amounr ro only 1% ofJapan's GNP. The world average is
6.5% of its GNP.
Japan's mainrenance of chis leve! , however, will de–
pend on various externa! developments, including che
fu–
cure course of Japanese-American and Japanese-Chinese
relations.
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Oil Politics
The economy and securiry of che Unired Srates,
W esrern Europe, and Japan could be jeopacdized in che
future because of increased dependence on foreign-pro–
duced oil.
Presently, che United Scares produces about 80% of
PLAIN TRUTH
January
1973
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its own oil requiremenrs. Mosr of che resr is imponed
from Canada and Venezuela. Only 3% ro 4% of che Uni red
Srares oi l need is now supplied by che Middle Easr.
Wesrern Europe and Japan, in conrrast, now rely on
che Middle Easr for sorne 80% and 90%, respecrively, of
their oil needs. Consequendy, as reponed in chis column
in Seprember 1972, Soviet polirical and milirary advances
in che Middle Easr are worrying Wesrern Europeans.
Evidence of Wesrern Europe's concern over che
fu–
cure threat was seen in Ocrober in a sraremenr in the final
communiqué of rhe París Common Market Summit Con–
ference. "The Heads of State and Heads of Governmenr
deem ir necessary ro invite che Communiry Instirucions ro
formulare as soon as possible an energy policy guaran–
teeing certain and lasring supplies under sarisfacrory eco–
nomic conditions."
In che Unired Srares, domestic oil producrion is ex–
pecred ro faJI far behind che rising demand in chis decade.
Consequently, experrs predice thar by 1980, che United
Stares will be importing
fme
ha/f
of ics oil supply - and
most of thar increase will have to come from the Middle
E
as
t.
Compounding W estecn dependence is growing con–
sciousness among the Arab nations as ro che
realpolitik
value ro che wocld of their subrerranean commodiry. Lasr
Ocrober, for example, che five Persian Gulf oil-producing
narions of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, lraq, Qatar, and Abu
Dhabi completed negoriations with nine major Wesrern
oil companies on an agreemenr whereby che companies
would surrender, by abour 1983, a conrrolling 51% inter–
ese in their operarions in che five counrries.
This agreemenr is expected ro ser a pattern which
may be followed by orher oil-exporting nations. The out–
righc narionalizacion approach is, however, popular with
sorne oil-producing scares. Sorne aurhoriries see che even–
tual narionaJizarion of
atl
oil properries in che Middle East
within 10 years. These authorities are aJready conjuring up
visions of eventual oil blackmail.
Oil
politics could play as big a role in changing che
world power balance as any series of summit meerings.
- Gene H. Hogberg
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