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36
to the peoples of the Red Sea basin,
religious conviction precedes, shapes
and often defines nationalism.
Religious conviction and nationalism
merge in Ethiopia, whcre through the
centuries mcn have been caBed to
"defend the Faith" by rallying to
Crown and Church against Moslem in–
vadees. Today, the religious element
remains a powerful and almost m–
calculable element in the minds of
the pcople.
Although as many mosques as
churchcs dot the Eritrean landscape, and
there are fcw outward signs of commu–
na l violence, thc
ELF
cont inues to win
Jimited support in the Moslem world,
from Algcria to Pakistan, by claiming
"persccution of Mos lcms" in Ethiopia.
The regime of Haile Sclassie has retali–
ated with mass loyalty demonstrations
in the streets of Ethiopia's major cities,
organizcd around the slogans of
"Hands Off Eritrea" and "Arabs Go
Home."
The ELF has evidently concluded
that it will be unable to win power in
Eritrea b}' traditional guerrilla tactics
alone. lt faces indifference or hostilit}'
from the Christian half of Eritrea's
population. The ELF realizes it can–
not compete militarily with Ethiopia's
40,000-man a rmy and air force -
Black Afri ca's strongest military estab–
lishment. It can, howevcr, scek to
underminc conlidc:ncc in thc regimc of
Haile Sclass ic by sabotaging carefully
selected economic targets, by gaining
wider publicity anc.l international sup–
port for its cause, and by prompting
Arab countrics to intervcnc more openly
on its behalf.
Future of Bab el Mandeb
The southern cntrance to the Red Sea
is, in a sense, far more important than
the Suez Canal. While the canal is
closed, oil-laJen tankers can still pass
through the Bab el Mandeb and use the
pipelines on thc Red Sea coast of Egypt
and in the Israelí port of Eilat. And
even if the canal were opcncd, super–
tankers could not use the canal because
it isn't deep enough.
Imagine, howcver, a hostile power
choking off the Bab el Mandeb gate–
way. A vital trade route would be
severcd. Ncither thc Europeans nor the
The
PLAIN TRUTH
Israelis could accept such a situation.
Therefore, the real risk in thc Eritrean
crisis is the possibility of a southerly
extension of the Arab-Israeli struggle
that could engulf all of the Arab
World, North Africa and parts of East
Africa.
It
could ultimately involve the
superpowers -
Russia, the United
States and Europe.
In the meantime, the new Arab feder–
ation comprising Egypt, Libya and Syria
( with the Sudan joining very soon) is
uodoubtedly interested in Eritrea. With
special emphasis on defense in depth,
using Libya and Sudan as fall-back
arcas, it could be very tempting to use
the Bab
el
Mandeb as a choke-point for
blockade sh ipping. T hc immediate ob–
jective would be to bring Israel to its
knees economically. But, like the Suez
blockade, it would have adverse effects
on Europe.
The Arabs realize thc obvious advan–
tage of blockading the southcrn en–
trance to the Red Sea, rathcr than trying
to halt Israelí shipping further north, at
the Straits of Tiran. Because of the dis–
tances involved, the Israelí air force
wouldn't be as effective in combating a
blockade in the south.
Israel, too, is not blind to the stratc–
gic importance of the central belt of
Africa - especially the Uganda–
Ethiopia-Somali-Etritrea scction. Israel
alrcady has very good friends in
Uganda and Ethiopia, while the Arabs
have f riends in Eritrea and Somalia.
There h1 ve also been reports of Egypt
supporting an attempted coup in Chad.
Undoubtedly, the struggle developing
in this arca cou ld become a southern
cxtcnsion of the Arab-Israeli war. Israelí
ensconcement "behind" Egypt and the
Sudan - in Uganda and Ethiopia -
could make the area a stage for military
acti\·itr.
Tt
has been reportcd that Ethiopia has
gi\'en severa! islands off the Eritrean
coast to Israel as air force bases. It has
also been claimed by some, that the Ts–
raelis are arming the rebels in the south–
ern Sudan through Uganda and
Ethiopia.
A southern extension of the Arab–
Israeli conRict and a blockade of the
southern entrance to the Red Sea would
be unacceptable to Wcstern Europe,
whosc industries rely hcavily on oil
January
1972
coming from the Pcrsian Gulf through
the Red Sea.
With the Suez Canal closed, Western
Europeao countries are secking an al–
ternative route by building two
pipelines from the Suez to Alexandria.
A blockade of the southern entrance
would render the pipelines useless.
In spite of Israel's military superior–
it}' over its Arab neighbors, one has to
remember that her population is only
three million. Expanding the conRict
from the immediate area of the Middle
East would dange rously weaken Israel.
The Arabs, on the other hand, num–
ber
120
mi llion and have enough oil to
keep some of thei r treasuries replen–
ished. It is true that most of the Arabs
are now so disunited that they a re
unable to pool their resources, and they
would be equally unable to expand t he
conflict without being weakened them–
selves. They might reason, however,
that as the conflict expands, it will be
easier to defeat Israel. Such action
would inevitably draw in other African
countries that are not now involved.
Europe would, of course, be abso–
lutely opposed to such an expansion of
the present Arab-lsraeli conflict. A
United Europe might be forced to react
dangerously against a Federation that
threatened the European economy by
severing its lifeline - the flow of oil to
its industries. And with the Soviet
Union and the United States heavily in–
volved and committed in this strategic
area of the world, any such action would
be a major thrcat to world peace.
Unless Ethiopia and the ELF come to
terms or an end to guerrilla activities
occurs, thc little-known conflict in
Eritrea will have to be regarded as
anothcr potentially explosive Middle
East time bomb that continues ticking
away, week by week. As articles in re–
cent issues of
The
PLAIN TRUTH have
shown, an explosion io any of severa!
volatile hot spots in the Middle East,
such as Eritrea, could begin an awesome
chain reaction that would be felt around
the world.
To defuse these potentially explosive
time bombs would require a permancnt
scttlement - a real, lasting, and just
peacc - in the Middle East. This is an
urgent priority, not just for Arabs and
lsraelis, but for the entire world. O