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PASTOR'S REPORT, July 11, 1979
Page 14
The Strauss victory was attributed to no small degree to widespread dis
satisfaction within the conservative coalition ranks. Kohl was often
considered "faceless," though his loss in 1976 was a close one. The
Telegraph said the Strauss nomination was a clear case of the tail wagging
the dog, since the CSU Bavarian wing of the coalition, run by Strauss, has
only 53 deputies in the Bonn Bundestag, compared with 200 for the CDU,
which covers the rest of the country. Added the Telegraph:
"That the CSU was able to win over so many CDU MPs scarcely a month after
the CDU executive had unanimously backed the Albrecht candidacy is a
measure of the disarray within the main opposition party. Disenchanted
Christian Democrats began rallying to Herr Strauss as soon as he threw his
hat into the ring, some five weeks ago. They wanted� 'strong�' image
to present to the country instead of the weakness and disunity pervading
CDU headquarters in Bonn."
Strauss, who sensed the growing support for his nomination, suggested
during the party campaign the possibility that if he were not nominated
he might split the CDU/CSU coalition and "go national" with his Bavarian
faction. Apparently enough CDU members were concerned about this mild
threat, along with having doubts about the untested Albrecht, to throw
their lots in with Strauss.
But Could He Win It All?
The big question now, of course, is how the Bavarian strongman will fare
in the big contest next year against the popular Herr Schmidt.
There is no doubt that if the election were to be held in the ve�y near
future, Strauss' chances would be two--slim and none. One recent public
opinion poll indicated that the 63-year-old Bavarian leader would get only
31 percent of the vote, with 58 going to the Chancellor.
But mid-summer 1979 is not late 1980. (Although no date for the election
has been set, it probably won't be held until the second half of next year,
probably in the fall.)
Much can happen between now and then--and, looking
at world conditions, especially with regard to OPEC, sky-rocketing oil
prices and a declining world (and probably by then West German) economy,
a marked shift in Herr Strauss' favor will very likely occur. This prosp�ct
was examined by editor Theo Sommer, writing in the German weekly, Dei Ziet,
�uly 6, 1979:
"Who says that Strauss is really going to loose the congressional elections?
Yes, the polls speak against his victory...But what would happen, if econo
mic development would escape the grip of the chancellor. In case inflation
and unemployment would rise next year, the economic growth would diminish,
/t:hen7 every gas pump would become an advertising sign against the coali
tion-government. What if his party would continue to move away from Helmut
Schmidt more toward the left? iThen7 the Free Democrats would swing toward
the right... then we would have chancellor Strauss. Most of all though, a
chancellor without self control, brakes or dependable safeguards."
This latent fear of the "uncontrollable Strauss" was expressed in an
editorial in the Berliner Morgenpost of July 8 (and our thanks here to th2
Bonn office for answering our request for up-to-date Ge�man press analysis)