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Pll-STOR'
s
REPORT, July 2,
19 79
Page 14
Yamani said the sudden loss of 3 million barrels of oil a day from Iran
during the revolution that deposed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi caused
economic panic.
"And if something happens in the area that causes a further drop of 3
million barrels per day, as it may, the price will quickly shoot up to
$50 a barrel," Yamani said. "Most of the Western world's plants would
then hav-e to close and it would be worse than the 1929 depression."
He was asked what could cause another curtailment of Middle East oil, set
at $18 to $23.50 a barrel at last week's OPEC oil ministers meeting in
Geneva.
"Look at what happened this week when the Israelis shot down five
Syrian planes over Lebanon," Yamani said. "This sort of thing can escalate
rapidly. The Israelis are looking for pretexts to avoid facing the in
evitability of a Palestinian homeland and withdrawal from the West Bank.
The Palestinians are growing ever more desperate, and I wouldn't be sur
prised if one day they sank one or two supertankers in the Strait of
Hor�uz, to force the world to do something about their plight and Israel's
obstinacy.
"This wo11ld block the channel through which pass
19
to 20 million barrels
daily_ This would make the present crisis seem like child's play. Either
the U.S. can compel Israel to implement U.N. Resolution #242 and withdraw
to the pre-June 1967, borders--or can't. If it can't then you must be
prepared to face the consequences."
Yamani said if the industrialized nations reduce consumption by 4 million
barre�s a day in 1980, the price of oil would drop. But he said a consuming
nation's cartel would be futile. "Be realistic," he said. "Don't start
on something you won't be able to finish."
Western military occupation of Middle East oil-Eroducing lands is equally
senseless, he said. "Sabotage /by Palestinians/ of a few key ports could
half pro;::iuction for a couple of-years," he said, "and then where would we
all be? No, �e must think positively. Be serious about cutting back, be
serious about a Middle Eastern settlement and a new era will open up."
--Gene H. Hogberg, News Bureau