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PAGE 18
PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, AUGUST 6, 1986
point, they will not yield.
conflict.
That is why the two sides are in
There is indeed a point of no compromise on the part of South Africa's
whites (those who will remain, that is--emigration of English-speakers
with British passports is up considerably). The government, whether
headed by P
.w.
Botha, or perhaps a future right-wing leadership, or
even a military dictatorship, is beginning a retreat into the laager.
A mood is growing that the sooner the sanctions come, the better, and
preparations should be made now for retooling industry, as in Rhodesia
of the '60s and '70s, for wholesale import substitution.
Already,
international traders are •offering their services" to redirect imports
and exports through third parties at hefty commissions. Denied landing
and overflight rights, South African Airways jets will likely be "sold"
to, say, the Royal Swaziland National Airways and repainted. The world
might accept this hypocrisy because Swaziland is an independent country
and independent countries should not be interfered with (a hallowed
U.N. principle that applies to all except, on occasion, Israel and
South Africa).
The sanctions busting may last -- for a while. But once word reached
the outside of renewed violence in South Africa, there could be
demands, reports Conor Cruise O'Brien in THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY (March
1986), for the U.N. to step in with a Security Council resolution to
"prevent genocide." Mr. 0'Brien foresees the day of a U.N. military
operation and especially naval blockade against South Africa with both
the United States and Soviets taking part. Such a blockade is probably
the only way South Africa could be brought down. "That thing is my
nightmare and has been for years," conceded South Africa's former
Ambassador to the u.N. and Washington, Brand Fourie, in a discussion
with O'Brien.
the meantime, what is more at stake for the moment is the
Commonwealth rather than the fate of South Africa.
Understandably,
Queen Elizabeth II, as head of the Commonwealth, is deeply grieved over
hat is happening to the diverse 49-member multiracial association.
She and the royal family would certainly suffer great personal loss
should the Commonwealth be fractured, although many average Britons are
becoming fed up with the tirades from the former colonies. The SUNDAY
TELEGRAPH's Worsthorne (July 20) questioned respectfully if the Queen
is paying too much attention to Commonwealth leaders who share little
in common with the British people. The Queen is known to be a close
friend of Zambia's President Kaunda.
And it is also known that
Commonwealth Secretary-General Shidrath (Sonny) Ramphal of Guyana (an
ardent foe of Pretoria) has the Queen's ear, freely.
Until now the dangers of this development have been more potential
than actual. Quite suddenly, however, they are materializing in a
way that could prove both dangerous and ugly. For it almost seems
as if the Queen has been misled into thinking that the British
people as a whole share her absolute commitment to the
Commonwealth; are as blind as she seems to be to the alien nature
of many of the countries of the Commonwealth ••• No consensus
exists in this country about what to do with or to South Africa,
•