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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, AUGUST 9, 1985
in land-surface temperatures, including the possibility of rapid
freezing of those areas under transient patches of smoke [the so
called "nuclear winter" effect]. The noncombatant part of the
world would face enormous, if not insurmountable, difficulties in
maintaining a viable agriculture.
Were the devastation confined to the Northern Hemisphere, the
death toll might well approach� billion persons--£!: about 90
percent of the human population [look at a world map or
globe--even India 1s 1n the Northern Hemisphere]--but it is by no
means clear that it would be so confined. Quite possibly, con
siderable quantities of dust would be transported across the
equator, which we have conventionally considered relatively
impenetrable, because of the unusual atmospheric circulation pat
terns in the region••••
Not only would technological civilization be obliterated; the
lives of most people in the developing world would be at stake as
well. There would be little hope of rebuilding a new civiliza
tion from the ashes of the old, particularly if the 10 percent of
humanity living in the Southern Hemisphere were also seriously
affected.
The likely effects of a major nuclear war•••suggest that no group
of humans would be so foolhardy as to initiate the first attack,
and that mutually assured destruction will remain an effective
deterrent for at least another several decades.
Yet the
historical record should not make us feel overly confident. Let
us look back to the SO million dead of World War II, to the German
extermination camps, to [the conventional fire-bombings of] Dres
den and Hamburg, to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Moving forward in
time let us look at the rise of terrorism, at the frequent use of
torture, at the widespread application of technological knowledge
to sabotage. Let us look at Lebanon, where a highly cultured
society has been reduced to rubble and savagery by ordinary
weapons coupled with fanaticism, hatred, and greed•.•• In short,
human beings have shown that they� willing to� everything
destroyed if they cannot have their� way.
The elimination of nuclear confrontation should have, without
question, the highest priority on any agenda aimed at saving our
civilization. At the same time we must recognize that the arms
race has become such an integral part of our lives--politically,
economically, and socially--that it will be extremely difficult
to stop, and even more difficult to reverse•••• Even with all
goodwill it will take a long time--perhaps two or three
decades--to reach the level of nuclear disarmament necessary to
provide nations with a reasonable degree of security••.• In the
meantime, � must hope that during a serious period of nuclear
build-down the threat of massive retaliation will continue to
deter the massive use of nuclear weapons.
A nuclear build-down, however, can only be a start, paving the
way for bringin � � kind of order out of the international
anarchy from which the whole world suffers.
Clearly, nuclear
force wouia be replaced by substantial conventional military
•