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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, NOVEMBER 9, 1984
PAGE 9
How do the Soviets assess America's position in the world? Here are ex
cerpts from an article entitled "The Bear May See Its Way Past Winter,"
written by Harry Gelman, a senior staff member of the Rand Corporation. It
appeared in the November 7, 1984 WALL STREET JOURNAL:
One can cite ••.underlying U.S. vulnerabilities that partially
offset Soviet problems•••. First, there is the continued growth
of fissures between Western Europe and the U.s.--� long-term
tre � d th � t �as not been halted .QY the start of the Pershing and
cruise missiles' deployment in Europe last year. Among the many
manifestations of this trend are the drift to the left of the
British Labor Party and the German Social Democrats,••.the near
indifference of many Europeans to Soviet behavior in the Third
World, and now the growing European anger and resentment over
American plans for space defense.
Second, despite the obviously grave Soviet concern about U.S.
weapons programs and about the U.S. technological advantage, many
in Moscow may still see grounds to hope that Mr. Reagan has bit
ten off considerably more than he can chew. Some of his pro
grams--such as MX, the B-1, and space defense--clearly lack a
broad consensus and remain vulnerable to adverse political cur
rents [and] the huge U.S. budget deficits•...
Finally, and most fundamentally, despite the obvious resurgence
of American patriotism,...the Soviet leaders have reason to as
sume that the successive wounds inflicted on the U.S. by history
have still not healed completely. Three consecutive catastrophes
--the murder of President Kennedy, the Vietnam tragedy, and the
Watergate melodrama--have left a lasting residue of damage to the
American policy consensus. Fresh causes of internal division
caused by foreign events--under Jirnrny Carter, Iran, and under
Ronald Reagan, Nicaragua and El Salvador--have seemed to emerge
periodically to tear at the scab.
The Soviets probably also sense that.••� large minority in the
U.S. apparently continues to believe that much of the American
! osition in� world against which� Soviet Union presses is
undamentally illegitimate. This semi-permanent estrangement of
the left has sometimes been matched, in recent years, by an
arrogant tendency toward self-isolation on the part of the right.
Despite America's great military strength and the scope of its
military buildup,..•Soviet skepticism on [ the will to defend U.S.
interests] has probably not been eliminated•••by the U.S.
participation in a brief and easy multilateral intervention in
Grenada.
Hence, the Soviets may have guessed that now was the time to put Mr. Reagan
to the test.
Election Madness--and Hilarity
Those of you living outside the United States can probably not appreciate
the great relief felt now in America that the long-drawn-out campaign is
over. The bad news is that the 1988 election "campaign" is now underway.