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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, AUGUST 17, 1984
PAGE 13
is frightened the same fate could overtake East Germany, but from
the opposite direction.
Not that that is a serious proposition, with 360,000 Soviet
troops stationed on East German territory, and East Berlin wholly
dependent on Moscow for energy and raw materials. But the coun
!!.Y
is, if possible, strategically�� vital for the Warsaw
� than is West Germany for NATO•••• Above all it represents
the western prong of the pincer which holds volatTie, recalci
trant Poland to heel.
Given all this, the Kremlin--and, as most suspect, Mr. Andrei
Gromyko the ascendant Foreign Minister in particular--have done
their sums and calculate that the stick is a more sensible bet
currently than the carrot. There would be several factors con
tributing to the change, which hotted up a month ago with the
astonishing abuse piled upon a supposedly "revanchist" West
Germany after the West European Union (WEU) had lifted remaining
theoretical curbs on conventional weapons production by Bonn•...
Entengled with these considerations, almost certainly, was the
instinctive Russian fear, for historical reasons, of anythrrig
which might portend� reunited Germany. The spectre, moreover,
1s a useful one to conjure up when "Fortress Russia" is the order
of the day, and preparations are under way for huge celebrations
to mark the 40th anniversary of the defeat of Hitler next
spring..••
More tantalisingly,•..there are signs that the Russians them
selves might be split 2!! theirGerman pof'Icy. PRAVDA on August 2
accused Bonn of employing economic ties as a means of meddling in
East German affairs. Be that as it may, the Government paper
ISVESTIA, just 24 hours earlier, had gone out of its way to
emphasise the importance of East-West trade, and implied that the
OM 950m credit was a quite unexceptionable event. Such divisions
would do much to explain why East Germany has found the courage
to stand� to the Russians--so far at least. In permitting his
party paper NEUES DEUTSCHLAND to defend his dealings with Bonn,
Herr Honecker must feel he is not without friends in the East.
The NEW YORK TIMES' outspoken columnist William Safire also probed "The
German Problem" in his August 13 column--specifically the future big issue
of reunification, which, he professes, may be in the "plotting stage" now.
Only in the last three sentences of his analysis does Safire's argument
break down.
LONDON--The superpowers have at last found common ground. Each
is worried about The German Problem•... Moscow originally ap
proved of [ East Germany's approaches] to the West, as part of its
campaign to seduce Europe into rejecting the American-made
nuclear missiles. When that seduction failed and West Germany
began to put in place the West's answer to the huge escalation of
Russian arms, Moscow expected East Germany to fall into its new
hard line--the present supersulk that is supposed to help defeat
Ronald Reagan in November.