Basic HTML Version
PAGE 10
PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, JULY 20, 1984
the CSU. But in June the FDP dropped to only 4.8% of the vote and
lost its four seats in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
The Strasbourg assembly is mainly a consultative body. Still,
the election raised the specter that the FOP could be shut out of
legislatures in Berlin and two German states in elections next
� prin 9 . Such losses,
..ey
further undermining
the
FDP's
credibil-
1:...$:l
w 7 th � oters, could pa ? e � way for the party's slide to�
tinction l.!! the next national election. Although that is three
years away, the scenario of an FDP decline has already weakened
its bargaining power within
the
coalition--thus
opening the way
for Strauss to de�and the job of Foreign Minister. That post has
been held for 10 years--in successive FDP coalitions with both
the Social Democratic Party and the CDU--by FDP Chairman Hans
Dietrich Genscher. But Genscher, 57,
was
so jolted by
the
Euro
parliament election debacle that he announced he would step down
in favor of a new party leader.
Although Genscher said he hopes to stay on as Foreign Minister
until the 1987 election, it is doubtful that the shaky FOP can
continue to claim that key post as the price for its collabora
tion in the coalition.... Another major Cabinet job traditio
nally held by the FOP, that of economy minister, was recently
taken over by Martin Bangemann, a 49-year-old lawyer.
Kohl
picked Bangemann to replace Otto Lambsdorff--who resigned to face
charges of having illegally accepted political contributions-
mainly because Bangemann is the leading candidate to succeed
Genscher as FDP chairman.
The controversial Strauss, 68, has been handicapped in bids for
national party leadership by his cold-warrior image, even though
his big Bavarian base makes him a power in CDU-CSU politics.
Despite his distrust of Moscow, he has been� major force . behind
the efforts of Kohl � Genscher to strengthen ties with the
Communist regime of Erich Honecker in East Germany. In fact,
under Kohl, Genscher has been taking many of his foreign-policy
cues from Strauss. If Strauss becomes Foreign Minister, he will
continue to tighten the East Germany connection with loans and
technical aid. But he will be� sympathetic than Genscher �
been to South Africa, while pulling back from Genscher's active
role
Tri
the group of five Western nations that have been trying
to midwife
an
agreement on independence for Namibia. Strauss
would also insist on stricter reciprocity than Genscher in rela
tions with Third World countries, aiming to reward friends and
oenalize adversaries. And in contrast to Kohl and Genscher, whom
he denounced for their hand-wringing over
the U.S.
invasion of
Grenada, Strauss would be more likely to applaud such U.s.
moves....
Paradoxically, the FDP' s weakness will force Kohl to show more
concern for the minority partner's political needs in shaping
coalition policies.
If the FOP lost its 35 Bundestag seats,
there is no way that the CDU-CSU by itself could win a parliamen
tary majority against the opposition Social Democrats--with
202
seats at present--and the Greens, a disparate collection of en
vironmentalists and peace groups that won 28 seats in the 1983