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PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, NOVEMBER 23, 1983
The Facts Are Far Worse Than the Movie Portrayed
All of the above discussion on how to prevent a nuclear war by no means
nullifies the actual evidence of what such a war would produce. Scientists
know a lot more today than they did 38 years ago what the impact of a full
"nuclear exchange" would be. On the post-film discussion show, astronomer
Carl Sagan said that such an exchange in the northern hemisphere could
usher in a long "nuclear winter" and initiate a series of events which could
lead to the possible extinction of the human species.
Sagan and others
recently met in a symposium in Washington, D.C., to examine the "nuclear
winter" hypothesis. Here is a report on their findings as published in the
NEW YORK TIMES, October 31, 1983:
The long-term environmental impact of a major nuclear exchange
would make life tenuous, perhaps impossible, for survivors of the
initial blasts because the world's climate would be drastically
altered, according to a scientific study. The evidence will be
presented at a two-day conference on "The World After Nuclear
War," which is to begin here Monday to discuss the long-range
biological consequences of large-scale use of nuclear weapons. A
summary of the findings, made available in advance, warns that
the climatic and optical aftereffects of a nuclear exchange will
produce a col�dark world in which the�roduct1on of food may be
1mposs1bie: surface water supplies would be frozen"""to�epth o1
several feet. Radiation would be far more widespread than pre
viously estimated, according to the findings, and toxic gases
from the combustion of such chemicals as dioxin, PCB's and vinyl
chloride would present another grave peril.
"These long-term
effects, when combined with the direct casualties from the blast,
suggest that eventually there might be no human survivors in the
Northern Hemisphere," the report said.
"Human beings, other
animals and plants in the Southern Hemisphere would also suffer
profound consequences."
Carl Sagan, one of the principal authors of the study, said in a
telephone interview that the new research shows "a set of pre
viously unanticipated dire effects of nuclear war-=-:-:.
-rr-
The
authors of this study ran computer models of the II'Kely effects
of the dust and smoke created by nuclear explosions at different
levels of explosive force. The study selected as the most likely
scenario an exchange involving 5,000 megatons, or about one-third
of the currently existing nuclear weapons.
A megaton is the
equivalent of a million tons of TNT.
Existing estimates, Dr.
Sagan said, are that in a nuclear exchange of that magnitude, 1.1
billion people would die immediately and another 1.1 billiori
would be severely 1nJurecr. Within weeks�ter such an exchange,
according to the report, soot, smoke and dust from nuclear fires
and groundbursts could reduce the amount of sunlight at ground
level to a few percent of normal.
"An unbroken gloom would
persist for weeks over the Northern Hemisphere," it said.
For the next months, the light filtering through this pall might
not be adequate to sustain photosynthesis, the process by which
plants convert sunlight to food.
At best, the reduced 1ight
could severely limit growth "and the consequences would cascade
through all food chains," the report said. The lack of sunlight