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PAGE 8
PASTOR GENERAL'S REPORT, OCTOBER 28, 1983
is really up to such a challenge. Lebanon is not the "piece of cake" that
Grenada is.
The Iranian Connection
The fact that the French command post was also destroyed was another clear
indication of who directly carried out the double Beirut debacle. Lebanese
Shiites are greatly influenced by Ayatolleh Khomeini's revolution in
largely Shiite Iran, including its ideal of martyrdom.
The pro-Iranian
groups also have an additional reason for attacking the French. Paris is
Iraq's main Western ally in its war with Iran.
The Shiite problem in Lebanon was exacerbated by Israel's 1982 incursions
into Lebanon. Thousands of Shiites in southern Lebanon fled the Israeli
advance, driven northward into Beirut's metropolitan area, reinforcing
like-minded Shiites there.
The government of Iran, of course, wants to propel its "holy war"
revolution throughout the largely Sunni Muslim Arab world.
As Dr.
Habsburg reminded us again, the Shiites are extremely restive, now in a
"volcanic" stage. Whether the Shiite revolution spills over and overthrows
the states and tiny sheikdoms of the Persian Gulf all depends on the outcome
of the Iran-Iraq war, now into its fourth year.
This war has already proved to be incredibly bloody. Some estimates put the
number of dead so far as high as 500,000, many of them the result of "human
wave attacks" by Iran's fanatical revolutionary guards. Nevertheless Iran,
richer and more populous, is gradually wearing Iraq down. Iraq's oil route
out through the Persian Gulf has been blocked, cutting revenues to the
Baghdad regime, forcing it to rely on billions of dollars of grants from
Saudi Arabia and other worried Gulf states.
Now, in the latest disturbing development, Iraq is receiving from France
five Super Etendard fighter bombers. Iraq already has on hand 30 long dis
tance firing Exocet missiles of the variety that wrought havoc on the
British Royal Navy in the Falklands War. Iraq's aim is to destroy, or at
least threaten to destroy, Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal complex and/or
to ward off ships loading oil there.
Iran, in turn, has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz entrance to the
Persian Gulf should its oil facilities be wiped out.
If a blockade is
successful (no one knows whether Iran's navy is capable of carrying one
out) 40% of Western Europe's oil needs plus 60% of Japan's would be cut off,
crippling the world's economy.
Once again the U.S. faces entanglements.
The Pentagon has prepared a
mobile strike force to intervene if necessary to keep the Gulf open. Should
this occur an embittered Iran might try to destroy Saudi and Gulf state oil
facilities across the Gulf in retaliation.
In expectation of this, the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman-
held their first ever joint military exercises earlier this month. They
are talking of establishing what one source called a "small scale NATO of
their own."